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References Statistical analysis of extreme events in a non-stationary context Clarke, R. T. 2003: Frequencies of Future Extreme Events Under Conditions of Changing Hydrologic Regime. Geophys. Research. Letters, 30, 3, 10.1029/2002GL016214. Coles, S. 2001: An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values. Springer. ______ and J. A. Tawn 1996: Modelling extremes of the areal rainfall process. J. R. Statist. Soc. B 58(2) 329-347. ______ and ______ 1991: Modelling extreme multivariate events. J. Royal Stat. Soc., 53, 377-392. Casson, E. and S. Coles 1999: Spatial Regression Models for Extremes. Extremes 1:4 449-468. Hosking, J. R. M., J. R. Wallis and E. F. Wood 1985: Estimation of the generalized extreme value distribution by the method of probability weighted moments. Technometrics , 27, 251-61. ______ and J. R. Wallis 1997: Regional Frequency Analysis. Cambridge University Press. Smith R. L. 2001: Environmental Statistics. http://www.stat.unc.edu/postcript/rs/envnotes.ps 215
CURRÍCULA OF THE AUTHORS Vicente Barros: Doctor in Meteorology (University of Buenos Aires, 1973). Full professor in Climatology and Director of the Master in Environmental Sciences at the Faculty of Natural and Exact Sciences, University of Buenos Aires, Argentina. Senior investigator in the Center of Investigations of the Sea and the Atmosphere (CIMA/CONICET). Publications in scientific magazines with peer review: 55 papers on climatology, climatic changeability, wind power and atmospheric circulation. Other scientific publications (chapters in books, institutional reports, etc): 20. Coordinator of the National Report to the Conference of United Nations on Sustainable Development and Environment, Rio de Janeiro 1992,. Coordinator of the Background Report for the First National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climatic Change. National Director of the Project Greenhouse gases emissions inventory and studies of Climatic Change on vulnerability and Mitigation 1997-1998. Coordinator of the Revision of the First National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climatic Change, 1997. Contributing author in the Third Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change, Group 1, Chapter 12. Robin Clarke: has degrees in mathematics and statistics from the universities of Oxford and Cambridge, and a DSc in hydrology from the University of Oxford. From 1970 to 1983 he was head of group of engineers, physicists and mathematicians developing models of how river basins respond to rainfall at the Institute of Hydrology, Wallingford; a particular responsibility was to predict how river basin behaviour was modified by changes in land use. In 1983 he was appointed Director of the Freshwater Biological Association, funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council, and directed freshwater research and ecological studies of UK lakes and rivers. He took early retirement in 1988, and moved to Brazil for family reasons. Since 1988 he has been a visiting Professor at the Instituto de Pesquisas Hidráulicas, UFRGS, in Porto Alegre, RS Brazil. As well as his academic career, he has been a consultant at various times for international agencies including FAO, UNDP, UNESCO, IAEA, WMO and WHO. Pedro Leite da Silva Dias: Bachelor degree in Applied Mathematics (Univ. of São Paulo/USP in 1974), MSc and PhD in Atmospheric Sciences by the Colorado State University in 1977 and 1979, respectively. Professor at the Institute Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences - IAG/USP since 1975. Visiting researcher at NCAR and NCEP in the USA in several occasions. Senior researcher of the National Institute for Space Research (INPE) and heat of CPTEC between 1988 and 1990. President of the Brazilian Meteorological Society between 1992 and 1994. Currently coordinates the 216
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CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE LA PLATA BASI
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INDEX FOREWORD . . . . . . . . . .
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7.3. Methodology . . . . . . . . .
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13.3. Regional validation of GCM fo
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1.1. Dropping the hypothesis of sta
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Introduction as they pour water ove
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A better understanding of the obser
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References Introduction Barros, V.
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ABSTRACT The hydrologic cycle of th
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La Plata basin climatology Within t
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in this last description, although
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warm season (October-April), in the
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La Plata basin climatology b. Upper
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La Plata basin climatology 2.3.3. R
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La Plata basin climatology Fig. 2.8
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2.3.7. West and South borders La Pl
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References La Plata basin climatolo
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La Plata basin climatology Robertso
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3.1. Introduction Interannual low f
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Interannual low frequency variabili
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1989). This signal varies along eac
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Interannual low frequency variabili
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The main physiographic and hydrolog
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SUB-BASIN COUNTRY Argentina Bolivia
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the most important stretches of the
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Physiography and Hydrology The Para
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Physiography and Hydrology The Pant
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Physiography and Hydrology forcings
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Physiography and Hydrology It is no
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Physiography and Hydrology tion of
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Physiography and Hydrology INTERNAV
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5.1. Introduction Precipitation and
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From 1956 to 1991, in most of the A
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-15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 -15 -20 -25
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Regional precipitation trends 5.3.2
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Regional precipitation trends and L
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trast, other regions suffer floodin
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ABSTRACT The main hydrological tren
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Following are the observed changes:
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In the case of the Paraná River th
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Hydrological trends In order to com
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Hydrological trends In table 6.1 it
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Hydrological trends On the other ha
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the central area of the high basin
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7.1. Introduction Several authors,
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Real evaporation trends a) PET > Pi
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a) b) c) Mean Temperature Real evap
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The positive trends of the mean tem
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d) e) f) Mean Temperature Real evap
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7.5. Discussion and final comments
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ABSTRACT The water, as resource, is
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puts in risk large number of person
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The main services and problems of w
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There are similar problems in diffe
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8.3.3. Energy a. Hydroelectric depe
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(chapters 12 and 13), because of th
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The main services and problems of w
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9.1. Introduction The emissions of
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9.4. Greenhouse effect The atmosphe
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Temperature anomalies (°C) 0.8 0.6
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Global climatic change at a global
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In view of the unavoidability of th
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Background on other regional aspect
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Considering the non-linear interact
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SST anomalies also have influence o
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ABSTRACT The purpose of this chapte
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Global climate models Mid-1970’s
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Global climate models Table 11.1. B
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Global climate models Table 11.2. M
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Although changes in weather and cli
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Socio-economic variables and also s
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Applicability in impact assessments
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of the global climate system to the
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Climate scenarios B2: Assumes a wor
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Climate scenarios The reliability o
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Climate scenarios From Table 12.2 i
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Climate scenarios Fig. 12.5. The mu
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Page 175 and 176: Regional climatic scenarios Fig. 13
Page 177 and 178: a. Pre-industrial experiment: Initi
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Page 185 and 186: Low-frequency variability 14.1. Bac
Page 187 and 188: egime occurred during the periods o
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Page 193 and 194: Low-frequency variability during th
Page 195 and 196: Fig. 14.10. As Fig. 14.9, except fo
Page 197 and 198: Low-frequency variability In genera
Page 199 and 200: Low-frequency variability Mantua, N
Page 201 and 202: 15.1. Introduction Statistical anal
Page 203 and 204: Statistical analysis of extreme eve
Page 215: Statistical analysis of extreme eve
Page 219 and 220: Curricula of the autors Rubén Mari
Page 221: Proyect: SGP II 057: “Trends in t
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