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References Low-frequency variability Aceituno, P. 1988: On the functioning of the Southern Oscillation in the South American Sector. Part 1: surface climate. Mon. Wea. Rev., 116, 505-524. Barros, V. R. and G. E. Silvestri 2002: The relation between sea surface temperature at the subtropical south-central Pacific and precipitation in southeastern South America. J. Climate, 15, 251-267. Caviedes, C. N. 1973: Secas and El Niño: two simultaneous climatical hazards in South America. Proc. Assoc. Amer. Geograph., 5, 44-49. Enfield, D. B. and A. Mestas-Nuñez 1999: Multiscale variabilities in global sea surface temperatures and their relationships with tropospheric climate patterns. J. Climate, 12, 2719-2733. Gershunov, A. and T. P. Barnett 1998: Interdecadal modulation of ENSO teleconnections. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79, 2715-2725. Grimm, A. M. 2003: The El Niño impact on the Summer monsoon in Brazil: regional processes versus remote influences. J. Climate, 16, 263-280. Gutzler, D. S., D. M. Kann and C. Thornbrugh 2002: Modulation of ENSO-based long-lead outlooks of southwestern U.S. Winter precipitation by the Pacific decadal oscillation. Wea. Forecast., 17, 1163-1172. Hare, S. R. and N. J. Mantua 2000: Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989. Prog. Oceanogr., 47, 103-146. Hastenrath, S. and L. Heller 1977: Dynamics of climatic hazards in Northeast Brazil. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 103, 77-92. Hulme, M. A. 1992: 1951-80 global land precipitation climatology for the evaluation of General Circulation Models. Climate Dyn., 7, 57-72. ______ 1994: Validation of large-scale precipitation fields in General Circulation Models. In Global Precipitations and Climate Change, eds. Desbois, M., and F. Desalmand, NATO ASI series, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 466 pp. ______ , T. J. Osborn and T. C. Johns 1998: Precipitation sensitivity to global warming: comparison of observations with HadCM2 simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 3379-3382. Kayano, M.T. 2003: A note on the precipitation anomalies in southern South America associated with ENSO variability in the Tropical Pacific. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 84, 267-274. ______ , V. B. Rao and A. D. Moura 1988: Tropical circulations and the associated rainfall anomalies during two contrasting years. J. Climatol., 8, 477-488. Kiladis, G. and H. F. Diaz 1989: Global climatic anomalies associated with extremes in the Southern Oscillation. J. Climate, 2, 1069-1090. Kousky, V. E., M.T. Kayano and I. F. A. Cavalcanti 1984: A review of the Southern Oscillation: oceanic-atmospheric circulation changes and related rainfall anomalies. Tellus, 36A, 490-504. Krishnan, R. and M. Sugi 2003: Pacific decadal oscillation and variability of the Indian Summer monsoon rainfall. Climate Dyn., 21, 233-242. Landscheidt, T. 2001: Trends in Pacific decadal oscillation subjected to solar forcing. http://www.john-daly.com/theodor/pdotrend.htm. Latif, M. and T. P. Barnett 1994: Causes of decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America. Science, 266, 634-637. 197
Low-frequency variability Mantua, N. J., S. R. Hare, Y. Zhang, J. M. Wallace and R. C. Francis 1997: A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 1069-1079. McCabe, G. J. and M. D. Dettinger 1999: Decadal variations in the strength of ENSO teleconnections with precipitation in the western United States. Int. J. Climatol., 19, 1399-1410. Minobe, S. A. 1997: 50-70 year climatic oscillation over the North Pacific and North America. Geophys. Res. Lett., 24, 683-686. ______1999: Resonance in bidecadal and pentadecadal climate oscillations over the North Pacific: role in climatic regime shifts. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 855-858. Nitta, T. and S. Yamada 1989: Recent warming of tropical sea surface temperature and its relationship to the Northern Hemisphere circulation. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 67, 375-383. Press, W. H., B. P. Flannery, S. A. Teukolsky and W.T. Vetterling 1986: Numerical Recipes: The Art of Scientific Computing. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge - NY, 818 pp. Robertson, A. W., C. R. Mechoso and N. B. Garcia 2001: Interannual prediction of the Paraná river. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 4235-4238. Ropelewski, C.F. and M. S. Halpert 1987: Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1606-1626. ______ and ______ 1989: Precipitation patterns associated with the high index phase of the Southern Oscillation. J. Climate, 2, 268-284. Schwing, F. and C. Moore 2000: A year without a Summer for California, or a harbinger of a climate shift? EOS Trans., AGU, 81, 304-305. Smith, T. M. and R. W. Reynolds 2003: Extended reconstruction of global sea surface temperatures based on COADS data (1854-1997). J. Climate, 16, 1495-1510. Tanimoto, Y., N. Iwasaka, K. Hanawa and Y. Toba 1993: Characteristic variations of sea surface temperature with multiple time scales in the North Pacific. J. Climate, 6, 1153-1160, Trenberth, K. E. 1990: Recent observed interdecadal climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 71, 988-993, ______ 1997: The definition of El Niño. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2771-2777. ______ and J. W. Hurrell, 1994: Decadal atmospherie-ocean variations in the Pacific. Climate Dyn., 9, 303-319. Vera C., G. E. Silvestri, V. R. Barros and A. Carril 2004: Differences in El Nino response over the Southern Hemisphere. J. Climate, 17, 1741-1753. Walker, G. T. 1928: World Weather III. Mem. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 97-104. Zhang, Y., J. M. Wallace and D. Battisti 1997: ENSO-like interdecadal variability: 1900-93. J. Climate, 10, 1004-1020. ______ , J. Norris and J. M. Wallace 1998: Seasonality of large-scale atmosphere-ocean interaction over the North Pacific. J. Climate, 11, 2473-2481. 198
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CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE LA PLATA BASI
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INDEX FOREWORD . . . . . . . . . .
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7.3. Methodology . . . . . . . . .
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13.3. Regional validation of GCM fo
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1.1. Dropping the hypothesis of sta
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Introduction as they pour water ove
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A better understanding of the obser
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References Introduction Barros, V.
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ABSTRACT The hydrologic cycle of th
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La Plata basin climatology Within t
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in this last description, although
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warm season (October-April), in the
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La Plata basin climatology b. Upper
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La Plata basin climatology 2.3.3. R
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La Plata basin climatology Fig. 2.8
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2.3.7. West and South borders La Pl
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References La Plata basin climatolo
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La Plata basin climatology Robertso
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3.1. Introduction Interannual low f
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Interannual low frequency variabili
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1989). This signal varies along eac
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Interannual low frequency variabili
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The main physiographic and hydrolog
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SUB-BASIN COUNTRY Argentina Bolivia
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the most important stretches of the
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Physiography and Hydrology The Para
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Physiography and Hydrology The Pant
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Physiography and Hydrology forcings
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Physiography and Hydrology It is no
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Physiography and Hydrology tion of
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Physiography and Hydrology INTERNAV
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5.1. Introduction Precipitation and
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From 1956 to 1991, in most of the A
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-15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 -15 -20 -25
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Regional precipitation trends 5.3.2
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Regional precipitation trends and L
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trast, other regions suffer floodin
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ABSTRACT The main hydrological tren
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Following are the observed changes:
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In the case of the Paraná River th
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Hydrological trends In order to com
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Hydrological trends In table 6.1 it
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Hydrological trends On the other ha
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the central area of the high basin
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7.1. Introduction Several authors,
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Real evaporation trends a) PET > Pi
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a) b) c) Mean Temperature Real evap
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The positive trends of the mean tem
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d) e) f) Mean Temperature Real evap
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7.5. Discussion and final comments
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ABSTRACT The water, as resource, is
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puts in risk large number of person
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The main services and problems of w
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There are similar problems in diffe
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8.3.3. Energy a. Hydroelectric depe
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(chapters 12 and 13), because of th
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The main services and problems of w
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9.1. Introduction The emissions of
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9.4. Greenhouse effect The atmosphe
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Temperature anomalies (°C) 0.8 0.6
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Global climatic change at a global
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In view of the unavoidability of th
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Background on other regional aspect
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Considering the non-linear interact
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SST anomalies also have influence o
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ABSTRACT The purpose of this chapte
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Global climate models Mid-1970’s
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Global climate models Table 11.1. B
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Page 151 and 152: Socio-economic variables and also s
Page 153 and 154: Applicability in impact assessments
Page 155 and 156: of the global climate system to the
Page 157 and 158: Climate scenarios B2: Assumes a wor
Page 159 and 160: Climate scenarios The reliability o
Page 161 and 162: Climate scenarios From Table 12.2 i
Page 163 and 164: Climate scenarios Fig. 12.5. The mu
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Page 167 and 168: Results of global circulation model
Page 169 and 170: 13.2.3. Statistical downscaling The
Page 171 and 172: La Plata basin are also considerabl
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Page 175 and 176: Regional climatic scenarios Fig. 13
Page 177 and 178: a. Pre-industrial experiment: Initi
Page 183 and 184: Regional climatic scenarios Kalnay,
Page 185 and 186: Low-frequency variability 14.1. Bac
Page 187 and 188: egime occurred during the periods o
Page 189 and 190: Fig. 14.2. As Fig. 14.1, except for
Page 191 and 192: 14.4. SST composites Low-frequency
Page 193 and 194: Low-frequency variability during th
Page 195 and 196: Fig. 14.10. As Fig. 14.9, except fo
Page 197: Low-frequency variability In genera
Page 201 and 202: 15.1. Introduction Statistical anal
Page 203 and 204: Statistical analysis of extreme eve
Page 217 and 218: CURRÍCULA OF THE AUTHORS Vicente B
Page 219 and 220: Curricula of the autors Rubén Mari
Page 221: Proyect: SGP II 057: “Trends in t
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