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2100. The results will be four daily data that will be used to analyse the variability in several scales, from changes in the annual means to the diurnal cycle. This activity is already in progress and analysis of model results are expected in the next few months. The resolution in the regional integrations is 40 km, and it is expected a more detailed spatial structure of the precipitation distribution, when compared to the global models. The control dataset will be the past climatology (1961-1990) of the ETA model using the Hadley Centre lateral boundary conditions. Similar experiments were being done in the Centre for Climate and Ocean Research (CIMA) with the MM5 model. Another dataset available for diagnostics are climate change simulations from the Global coupled Hadley Centre model (monthly and daily) and results from the IPCC/WG1 project, already mentioned. CPTEC and CIMA are contributing to this project with proposals to do diagnostic analysis over South America on the South America Monsoon System, Hydrological cycle over the La Plata Basin, interaction tropics/extratropics and teleconnections related to anomalies over the continent. Some experiments are already available, such as: GFDL_CM2.0, GISS_AOM, NCAR_PCM1, and some results were reported in section 13.4.3. Results from these analysis are expected to be included in the Fourth IPCC Report of Climate Change, namely changes at the surface, at upper levels, in the circulation, changes in the tropics, subtropics and extratropics, changes in extreme events, changes in snow and ice, changes in oceanic variables and sea level, coupling between climate change and biogeochemistry, seasonal to interannual prediction of climate change, projection of regional and global climate change and scenarios, and other related topics. The authors acknowledge the international modeling groups for providing their data for analysis, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) for collecting and archiving the model data, the JSC/CLIVAR Working Group on Coupled Modeling (WGCM) and their Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) and Climate Simulation Panel for organizing the model data analysis activity, and the IPCC WG1 TSU for technical support through the IPCC Data Archive at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, supported by the Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy. References Regional climatic scenarios Cavalcanti, I. F. A. , J. A. Marengo, P. Satyamurty, C. A. Nobre, I. Trosnikov, J. P. Bonatti, A. O. Manzi, T. Tarasova, L. P. Pezzi, C. D'Almeida, G. Sampaio, C. C. Castro, M. B. Sanches, H. Camargo 2002: Global climatological features in a simulation using CPTEC/COLA AGCM. J. Climate, 15, 2965-2988. Gates, W. L. and Coauthors 1999: An overview of the results of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 29-55. 181
Regional climatic scenarios Kalnay, E. and Coauthors 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437-471. Lau, K. M., J. H. Kim and Y. Sud 1996: Intercomparison of Hydrologic processes in AMIP GCMs. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 2209-2227. Marengo, J. A., I. F. A. Cavalcanti, P. Satyamurty, I. Troniskov, C. A. Nobre, J. P. Bonatti, H. Camargo, G. Sampaio, M. B. Sanches, A. O. Manzi, C. C. Castro, C. Dálmeida, L. P. Pezzi and L. Candido 2003: Assessment of regional seasonal rainfall predictability using the CPTEC/COLA atmospheric GCM. Clim. Dynam., 21, 459-475. Willmott,C. J. and C. K. Matsura 2001: Terrestrial air temperature and precipitation: monthly and annual time series (1950-99). Version 1.02. (Available at http://climate.geog.udel.edu/~climate/). 182
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CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE LA PLATA BASI
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INDEX FOREWORD . . . . . . . . . .
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7.3. Methodology . . . . . . . . .
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13.3. Regional validation of GCM fo
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1.1. Dropping the hypothesis of sta
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Introduction as they pour water ove
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A better understanding of the obser
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References Introduction Barros, V.
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ABSTRACT The hydrologic cycle of th
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La Plata basin climatology Within t
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in this last description, although
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warm season (October-April), in the
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La Plata basin climatology b. Upper
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La Plata basin climatology 2.3.3. R
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La Plata basin climatology Fig. 2.8
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2.3.7. West and South borders La Pl
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References La Plata basin climatolo
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La Plata basin climatology Robertso
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3.1. Introduction Interannual low f
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Interannual low frequency variabili
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1989). This signal varies along eac
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Interannual low frequency variabili
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The main physiographic and hydrolog
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SUB-BASIN COUNTRY Argentina Bolivia
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the most important stretches of the
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Physiography and Hydrology The Para
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Physiography and Hydrology The Pant
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Physiography and Hydrology forcings
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Physiography and Hydrology It is no
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Physiography and Hydrology tion of
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Physiography and Hydrology INTERNAV
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5.1. Introduction Precipitation and
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From 1956 to 1991, in most of the A
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-15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 -15 -20 -25
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Regional precipitation trends 5.3.2
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Regional precipitation trends and L
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trast, other regions suffer floodin
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ABSTRACT The main hydrological tren
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Following are the observed changes:
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In the case of the Paraná River th
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Hydrological trends In order to com
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Hydrological trends In table 6.1 it
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Hydrological trends On the other ha
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the central area of the high basin
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7.1. Introduction Several authors,
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Real evaporation trends a) PET > Pi
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a) b) c) Mean Temperature Real evap
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The positive trends of the mean tem
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d) e) f) Mean Temperature Real evap
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7.5. Discussion and final comments
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ABSTRACT The water, as resource, is
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puts in risk large number of person
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The main services and problems of w
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There are similar problems in diffe
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8.3.3. Energy a. Hydroelectric depe
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(chapters 12 and 13), because of th
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The main services and problems of w
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9.1. Introduction The emissions of
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9.4. Greenhouse effect The atmosphe
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Temperature anomalies (°C) 0.8 0.6
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Global climatic change at a global
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In view of the unavoidability of th
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Background on other regional aspect
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Page 135 and 136: Considering the non-linear interact
Page 137 and 138: SST anomalies also have influence o
Page 141 and 142: ABSTRACT The purpose of this chapte
Page 143 and 144: Global climate models Mid-1970’s
Page 145 and 146: Global climate models Table 11.1. B
Page 147 and 148: Global climate models Table 11.2. M
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Page 153 and 154: Applicability in impact assessments
Page 155 and 156: of the global climate system to the
Page 157 and 158: Climate scenarios B2: Assumes a wor
Page 159 and 160: Climate scenarios The reliability o
Page 161 and 162: Climate scenarios From Table 12.2 i
Page 163 and 164: Climate scenarios Fig. 12.5. The mu
Page 165 and 166: Climate scenarios this would be rel
Page 167 and 168: Results of global circulation model
Page 169 and 170: 13.2.3. Statistical downscaling The
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Page 175 and 176: Regional climatic scenarios Fig. 13
Page 177 and 178: a. Pre-industrial experiment: Initi
Page 179 and 180: Regional climatic scenarios Fig. 13
Page 181: Regional climatic scenarios Fig. 13
Page 185 and 186: Low-frequency variability 14.1. Bac
Page 187 and 188: egime occurred during the periods o
Page 189 and 190: Fig. 14.2. As Fig. 14.1, except for
Page 191 and 192: 14.4. SST composites Low-frequency
Page 193 and 194: Low-frequency variability during th
Page 195 and 196: Fig. 14.10. As Fig. 14.9, except fo
Page 197 and 198: Low-frequency variability In genera
Page 199 and 200: Low-frequency variability Mantua, N
Page 201 and 202: 15.1. Introduction Statistical anal
Page 203 and 204: Statistical analysis of extreme eve
Page 217 and 218: CURRÍCULA OF THE AUTHORS Vicente B
Page 219 and 220: Curricula of the autors Rubén Mari
Page 221: Proyect: SGP II 057: “Trends in t
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