chapter - Atmospheric and Oceanic Science

2100. The results will be four daily data that will be used to analyse the variability
in several scales, from changes in the annual means to the diurnal cycle. This activity
is already in progress and analysis of model results are expected in the next few
months. The resolution in the regional integrations is 40 km, and it is expected a
more detailed spatial structure of the precipitation distribution, when compared to
the global models. The control dataset will be the past climatology (1961-1990) of
the ETA model using the Hadley Centre lateral boundary conditions. Similar experiments
were being done in the Centre for Climate and Ocean Research (CIMA)
with the MM5 model.
Another dataset available for diagnostics are climate change simulations from
the Global coupled Hadley Centre model (monthly and daily) and results from the
IPCC/WG1 project, already mentioned. CPTEC and CIMA are contributing to this
project with proposals to do diagnostic analysis over South America on the South
America Monsoon System, Hydrological cycle over the La Plata Basin, interaction
tropics/extratropics and teleconnections related to anomalies over the continent.
Some experiments are already available, such as: GFDL_CM2.0, GISS_AOM,
NCAR_PCM1, and some results were reported in section 13.4.3. Results from these
analysis are expected to be included in the Fourth IPCC Report of Climate Change,
namely changes at the surface, at upper levels, in the circulation, changes in the tropics,
subtropics and extratropics, changes in extreme events, changes in snow and ice,
changes in oceanic variables and sea level, coupling between climate change and
biogeochemistry, seasonal to interannual prediction of climate change, projection of
regional and global climate change and scenarios, and other related topics.
The authors acknowledge the international modeling groups for providing
their data for analysis, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and
Intercomparison (PCMDI) for collecting and archiving the model data, the
JSC/CLIVAR Working Group on Coupled Modeling (WGCM) and their Coupled
Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) and Climate Simulation Panel for organizing
the model data analysis activity, and the IPCC WG1 TSU for technical support
through the IPCC Data Archive at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, supported
by the Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy.
References
Regional climatic scenarios
Cavalcanti, I. F. A. , J. A. Marengo, P. Satyamurty, C. A. Nobre, I. Trosnikov, J. P. Bonatti, A. O.
Manzi, T. Tarasova, L. P. Pezzi, C. D'Almeida, G. Sampaio, C. C. Castro, M. B. Sanches,
H. Camargo 2002: Global climatological features in a simulation using CPTEC/COLA
AGCM. J. Climate, 15, 2965-2988.
Gates, W. L. and Coauthors 1999: An overview of the results of the Atmospheric Model
Intercomparison Project (AMIP). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 29-55.
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