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Regional climatic scenarios 13.4.3. Hadley Centre and ECHAM GCM Results from two other models (see table 12.1 for model details), for the southern hemisphere winter and summer seasons and different periods are presented in figure 13.14. This figure shows the ECHAM4 and HadCM3 model simulations for the A2 scenarios averaged for the periods 2050 and 2080 and for the December-January-February (DJF) and June-July-August (JJA) periods. The ECHAM4 results indicate that independently of the period (Figs. 13.14a and 13.14c), the precipitation patterns during the austral Summer show a positive anomaly over the Southeast South America and negative ones over the Northeast Brazil. During the Winter (Figs. 13.14b and 13.14d), the negative anomalies seem to move towards the North of South America, while the excess of rainfall is confined to the South of Brazil. The HadCM3 model shows similar characteristics but with some important differences. For the austral summer, there is a noticeable change in the precipitation anomaly amplitudes between 2050 and 2080, being much larger in the last one (Figs. 13.14e and 13.14g). It is worthy noting that the maximum values occur around the SACZ, which is to the North of the ECHAM4 results. Large amplitudes of negative precipitation anomalies over the North of South America are observed during the winter (Figs. 13.14f and 13.14h). Again, the values are much stronger for the 2080 period (Fig. 13.14h), and positive anomaly values are basically observed in the South of South America. 13.5. Future plans of CPTEC/INPE in climate change modelling Different improvements are currently been planned at CPTEC concerning climate change experiments. Some of them are related to the integrations of CPTEC models, and others will use dataset provided by other centres. CPTEC/COLA AGCM will be integrated to simulate the future climate, considering the increase of CO2 and also simulating the past climate considering the observed CO2 variation. Aspects of atmospheric and land components of the hydrological cycle over the La Plata basin will be analysed in the model results comparing the past and future climate. Experiments considering gradual Amazonia deforestation are also been planned with the global model. Aerosol increase and a chemical module that can consider the carbon cycle is a need for future implementations. In this module is expected the inclusion of other greenhouse gases as CH4 and N2O. Improvements in convection and radiation parameterization schemes of the CPTEC/COLA model are in progress, as well as the inclusion of a new vegetation field and soil moisture provided by a hydrological model. Climate change simulations planned at CPTEC will be the integration of the regional Eta model to do a downscaling, taking as lateral boundary conditions results of a simulation with the Hadley Centre Coupled GCM for the year 2070 to 179
Regional climatic scenarios Fig. 13.14. ECHAM4 and HadCM3 A2 scenarios precipitation anomaly fields (mm/day) over South America for the periods DJF and JJA, and 2050s and 2080s relative to the 1961-90. The scale bar is at the bottom. [Source: IPCC-DDC] 180
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CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE LA PLATA BASI
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INDEX FOREWORD . . . . . . . . . .
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7.3. Methodology . . . . . . . . .
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13.3. Regional validation of GCM fo
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1.1. Dropping the hypothesis of sta
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Introduction as they pour water ove
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A better understanding of the obser
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References Introduction Barros, V.
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ABSTRACT The hydrologic cycle of th
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La Plata basin climatology Within t
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in this last description, although
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warm season (October-April), in the
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La Plata basin climatology b. Upper
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La Plata basin climatology 2.3.3. R
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La Plata basin climatology Fig. 2.8
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2.3.7. West and South borders La Pl
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References La Plata basin climatolo
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La Plata basin climatology Robertso
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3.1. Introduction Interannual low f
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Interannual low frequency variabili
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1989). This signal varies along eac
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Interannual low frequency variabili
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The main physiographic and hydrolog
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SUB-BASIN COUNTRY Argentina Bolivia
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the most important stretches of the
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Physiography and Hydrology The Para
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Physiography and Hydrology The Pant
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Physiography and Hydrology forcings
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Physiography and Hydrology It is no
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Physiography and Hydrology tion of
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Physiography and Hydrology INTERNAV
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5.1. Introduction Precipitation and
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From 1956 to 1991, in most of the A
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-15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 -15 -20 -25
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Regional precipitation trends 5.3.2
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Regional precipitation trends and L
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trast, other regions suffer floodin
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ABSTRACT The main hydrological tren
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Following are the observed changes:
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In the case of the Paraná River th
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Hydrological trends In order to com
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Hydrological trends In table 6.1 it
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Hydrological trends On the other ha
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the central area of the high basin
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7.1. Introduction Several authors,
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Real evaporation trends a) PET > Pi
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a) b) c) Mean Temperature Real evap
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The positive trends of the mean tem
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d) e) f) Mean Temperature Real evap
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7.5. Discussion and final comments
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ABSTRACT The water, as resource, is
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puts in risk large number of person
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The main services and problems of w
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There are similar problems in diffe
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8.3.3. Energy a. Hydroelectric depe
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(chapters 12 and 13), because of th
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The main services and problems of w
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9.1. Introduction The emissions of
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9.4. Greenhouse effect The atmosphe
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Temperature anomalies (°C) 0.8 0.6
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Global climatic change at a global
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In view of the unavoidability of th
Page 129 and 130: Background on other regional aspect
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Page 143 and 144: Global climate models Mid-1970’s
Page 145 and 146: Global climate models Table 11.1. B
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Page 157 and 158: Climate scenarios B2: Assumes a wor
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Page 163 and 164: Climate scenarios Fig. 12.5. The mu
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Page 167 and 168: Results of global circulation model
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Page 175 and 176: Regional climatic scenarios Fig. 13
Page 177 and 178: a. Pre-industrial experiment: Initi
Page 179: Regional climatic scenarios Fig. 13
Page 183 and 184: Regional climatic scenarios Kalnay,
Page 185 and 186: Low-frequency variability 14.1. Bac
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Page 191 and 192: 14.4. SST composites Low-frequency
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Page 199 and 200: Low-frequency variability Mantua, N
Page 201 and 202: 15.1. Introduction Statistical anal
Page 203 and 204: Statistical analysis of extreme eve
Page 217 and 218: CURRÍCULA OF THE AUTHORS Vicente B
Page 219 and 220: Curricula of the autors Rubén Mari
Page 221: Proyect: SGP II 057: “Trends in t
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