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Regional climatic scenarios show a positive trend in most of centre-North of Argentina, Uruguay and South of Brazil, and in the southernmost part of Argentina. This increase is higher in scenario A2 than in B2. Likewise, it is observed a remarkable negative trend in the rainfall over the central region of Chile, Cuyo, Neuquén, West of Rio Negro and Chubut. Temperature differences are shown in figure 13.8 and 13.9. Fig. 13.6. Scenarios of precipitation differences (mm/day) according to the HADCM3 model between decades 2020, 2050 and 2080 and present time (1961-90) for A2 scenario. Fig. 13.7. Scenarios of precipitation differences (mm/day) according to the HADCM3 model between decades 2020, 2050 and 2080 and present time (1961-90) for B2 scenario. 173
Regional climatic scenarios Fig. 13.8. Scenarios of temperature differences (ºC) according to the HADCM3 model between decades 2020, 2050 and 2080 and present time (1961-90) for A2 scenario. Fig. 13.9. Scenarios of temperature differences (ºC) according to the HADCM3 model between decades 2020, 2050 and 2080 and present time (1961-90) for B2 scenario. 13.4.2. Regional features in other Climate Change experiments Fourteen modelling groups from different institutions are preparing model simulations of climate change scenarios and the results will be available to the scientific community for diagnostic analysis. These analyses will be part of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report and they have been organized by the Working Group Climate Simulation Panel. The objective is to have a diverse set of climate change scenarios and a few sets with high resolution (~150 km), a variety of fields, monthly, daily and 3 hourly timescale. The experiments refer to following conditions: 174
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CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE LA PLATA BASI
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INDEX FOREWORD . . . . . . . . . .
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7.3. Methodology . . . . . . . . .
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13.3. Regional validation of GCM fo
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1.1. Dropping the hypothesis of sta
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Introduction as they pour water ove
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A better understanding of the obser
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References Introduction Barros, V.
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ABSTRACT The hydrologic cycle of th
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La Plata basin climatology Within t
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in this last description, although
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warm season (October-April), in the
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La Plata basin climatology b. Upper
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La Plata basin climatology 2.3.3. R
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La Plata basin climatology Fig. 2.8
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2.3.7. West and South borders La Pl
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References La Plata basin climatolo
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La Plata basin climatology Robertso
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3.1. Introduction Interannual low f
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Interannual low frequency variabili
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1989). This signal varies along eac
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Interannual low frequency variabili
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The main physiographic and hydrolog
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SUB-BASIN COUNTRY Argentina Bolivia
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the most important stretches of the
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Physiography and Hydrology The Para
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Physiography and Hydrology The Pant
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Physiography and Hydrology forcings
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Physiography and Hydrology It is no
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Physiography and Hydrology tion of
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Physiography and Hydrology INTERNAV
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5.1. Introduction Precipitation and
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From 1956 to 1991, in most of the A
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-15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 -15 -20 -25
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Regional precipitation trends 5.3.2
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Regional precipitation trends and L
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trast, other regions suffer floodin
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ABSTRACT The main hydrological tren
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Following are the observed changes:
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In the case of the Paraná River th
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Hydrological trends In order to com
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Hydrological trends In table 6.1 it
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Hydrological trends On the other ha
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the central area of the high basin
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7.1. Introduction Several authors,
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Real evaporation trends a) PET > Pi
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a) b) c) Mean Temperature Real evap
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The positive trends of the mean tem
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d) e) f) Mean Temperature Real evap
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7.5. Discussion and final comments
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ABSTRACT The water, as resource, is
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puts in risk large number of person
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The main services and problems of w
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There are similar problems in diffe
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8.3.3. Energy a. Hydroelectric depe
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(chapters 12 and 13), because of th
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The main services and problems of w
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9.1. Introduction The emissions of
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9.4. Greenhouse effect The atmosphe
Page 123 and 124: Temperature anomalies (°C) 0.8 0.6
Page 125 and 126: Global climatic change at a global
Page 127 and 128: In view of the unavoidability of th
Page 129 and 130: Background on other regional aspect
Page 135 and 136: Considering the non-linear interact
Page 137 and 138: SST anomalies also have influence o
Page 141 and 142: ABSTRACT The purpose of this chapte
Page 143 and 144: Global climate models Mid-1970’s
Page 145 and 146: Global climate models Table 11.1. B
Page 147 and 148: Global climate models Table 11.2. M
Page 149 and 150: Although changes in weather and cli
Page 151 and 152: Socio-economic variables and also s
Page 153 and 154: Applicability in impact assessments
Page 155 and 156: of the global climate system to the
Page 157 and 158: Climate scenarios B2: Assumes a wor
Page 159 and 160: Climate scenarios The reliability o
Page 161 and 162: Climate scenarios From Table 12.2 i
Page 163 and 164: Climate scenarios Fig. 12.5. The mu
Page 165 and 166: Climate scenarios this would be rel
Page 167 and 168: Results of global circulation model
Page 169 and 170: 13.2.3. Statistical downscaling The
Page 171 and 172: La Plata basin are also considerabl
Page 173: 10 N EQ 10 S 20 S 30 S 40 S 50 S 10
Page 177 and 178: a. Pre-industrial experiment: Initi
Page 179 and 180: Regional climatic scenarios Fig. 13
Page 181 and 182: Regional climatic scenarios Fig. 13
Page 183 and 184: Regional climatic scenarios Kalnay,
Page 185 and 186: Low-frequency variability 14.1. Bac
Page 187 and 188: egime occurred during the periods o
Page 189 and 190: Fig. 14.2. As Fig. 14.1, except for
Page 191 and 192: 14.4. SST composites Low-frequency
Page 193 and 194: Low-frequency variability during th
Page 195 and 196: Fig. 14.10. As Fig. 14.9, except fo
Page 197 and 198: Low-frequency variability In genera
Page 199 and 200: Low-frequency variability Mantua, N
Page 201 and 202: 15.1. Introduction Statistical anal
Page 203 and 204: Statistical analysis of extreme eve
Page 217 and 218: CURRÍCULA OF THE AUTHORS Vicente B
Page 219 and 220: Curricula of the autors Rubén Mari
Page 221: Proyect: SGP II 057: “Trends in t
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