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Introduction Robertson, A., C. Mechoso and N. García 2001: Interannual prediction of river flows in southeastern South America. Geophys. Res. Let. Tucci, C. and R. Clarke 1998: Environmental issues in the Rio de la Plata basin. Water Resources Development, 14,157-175 Velasco, I. and J. M. Fritsch 1987: Mesoscale convective complexes in the Americas. J. Geophys. Res., 92, D8, 9591-9613. World Bank 2001: Argentina, Management of Water Resources. Report 20729 - AR. Xavier, T. M. B. S., M. A. F. Silva Dias and A. F. S. Xavier 1992: Tendências da Pluviometria na Grande São Paulo e a Influência dos Processos de Urbanização e Industrialização. Anais, VII Congresso Brasileiro de Meteorologia, 1, 220-224. ______, A. F. S. Xavier and M. A. F. Silva Dias 1994: Evolução da Precipitação Diária num Ambiente urbano: O Caso da Cidade de São Paulo. Rev. Brasileira de Meteorologia, 9, 44- 53. 15
ABSTRACT The hydrologic cycle of the La Plata basin is influenced by the South Atlantic High, which reaches greater intensity near the continent during winter. This system is responsible for the atmospheric moisture flow from the Atlantic Ocean over the coastal ridges of Brazil, and favors the southward flow in the central part of the continent. In this region, there is sometimes low level flow of water vapour from the Amazon region The other regional atmospheric configurations of importance, the Bolivian High, the Chaco Low, the South Atlantic Convergence Zone, the Low Level Jet, the Meso Convective Systems and the Westerly Circulation, are succinctly described, along with their influences on weather and climate. The general features of the precipitation field are described using modern data sets. There are two well defined rainfall regimes. One, north of the 20º, with summer rainfall, associated to the monsoon system, and a second with more uniform annual distribution to the south. The overall average of the basin is of 5.5 mm/day during the warm season and it is lower than 2 mm/day in June. From north to south and from east to west, can be identified seven large climatic areas: the Monsoon Region in the Pantanal and in the north of the Upper Paraná basin, the Great Chaco, the east of Paraguay, the Planalto and the southern Rio Grande ridges, the Argentine Litoral, the eastern part of Uruguay and southern Rio Grande, and the southern and western edge of the La Plata basin. For each one of them, it is described the annual cycle of precipitation and temperature. 16 CHAPTER LA PLATA BASIN CLIMATOLOGY Rubén Mario Caffera 1 and Ernesto Hugo Berbery 2 1 Universidad de la República. 2 Universidad de Maryland. II
Page 1 and 2: CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE LA PLATA BASI
Page 3 and 4: INDEX FOREWORD . . . . . . . . . .
Page 5 and 6: 7.3. Methodology . . . . . . . . .
Page 7 and 8: 13.3. Regional validation of GCM fo
Page 9 and 10: 1.1. Dropping the hypothesis of sta
Page 11 and 12: Introduction as they pour water ove
Page 13 and 14: A better understanding of the obser
Page 15: References Introduction Barros, V.
Page 19 and 20: La Plata basin climatology Within t
Page 21 and 22: in this last description, although
Page 23 and 24: warm season (October-April), in the
Page 25 and 26: La Plata basin climatology b. Upper
Page 27 and 28: La Plata basin climatology 2.3.3. R
Page 29 and 30: La Plata basin climatology Fig. 2.8
Page 31 and 32: 2.3.7. West and South borders La Pl
Page 33 and 34: References La Plata basin climatolo
Page 35 and 36: La Plata basin climatology Robertso
Page 37 and 38: 3.1. Introduction Interannual low f
Page 39 and 40: Interannual low frequency variabili
Page 41 and 42: 1989). This signal varies along eac
Page 43 and 44: Interannual low frequency variabili
Page 45 and 46: The main physiographic and hydrolog
Page 47 and 48: SUB-BASIN COUNTRY Argentina Bolivia
Page 49 and 50: the most important stretches of the
Page 51 and 52: Physiography and Hydrology The Para
Page 53 and 54: Physiography and Hydrology The Pant
Page 55 and 56: Physiography and Hydrology forcings
Page 57 and 58: Physiography and Hydrology It is no
Page 59 and 60: Physiography and Hydrology tion of
Page 61 and 62: Physiography and Hydrology INTERNAV
Page 63 and 64: 5.1. Introduction Precipitation and
Page 65 and 66: From 1956 to 1991, in most of the A
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-15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 -15 -20 -25
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Regional precipitation trends 5.3.2
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Regional precipitation trends and L
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trast, other regions suffer floodin
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ABSTRACT The main hydrological tren
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Following are the observed changes:
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In the case of the Paraná River th
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Hydrological trends In order to com
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Hydrological trends In table 6.1 it
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Hydrological trends On the other ha
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the central area of the high basin
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7.1. Introduction Several authors,
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Real evaporation trends a) PET > Pi
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a) b) c) Mean Temperature Real evap
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The positive trends of the mean tem
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d) e) f) Mean Temperature Real evap
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7.5. Discussion and final comments
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ABSTRACT The water, as resource, is
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puts in risk large number of person
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The main services and problems of w
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There are similar problems in diffe
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8.3.3. Energy a. Hydroelectric depe
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(chapters 12 and 13), because of th
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The main services and problems of w
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9.1. Introduction The emissions of
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9.4. Greenhouse effect The atmosphe
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Temperature anomalies (°C) 0.8 0.6
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Global climatic change at a global
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In view of the unavoidability of th
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Background on other regional aspect
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Considering the non-linear interact
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SST anomalies also have influence o
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ABSTRACT The purpose of this chapte
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Global climate models Mid-1970’s
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Global climate models Table 11.1. B
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Global climate models Table 11.2. M
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Although changes in weather and cli
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Socio-economic variables and also s
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Applicability in impact assessments
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of the global climate system to the
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Climate scenarios B2: Assumes a wor
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Climate scenarios The reliability o
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Climate scenarios From Table 12.2 i
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Climate scenarios Fig. 12.5. The mu
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Climate scenarios this would be rel
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Results of global circulation model
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13.2.3. Statistical downscaling The
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La Plata basin are also considerabl
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10 N EQ 10 S 20 S 30 S 40 S 50 S 10
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Regional climatic scenarios Fig. 13
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a. Pre-industrial experiment: Initi
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Regional climatic scenarios Kalnay,
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Low-frequency variability 14.1. Bac
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egime occurred during the periods o
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Fig. 14.2. As Fig. 14.1, except for
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14.4. SST composites Low-frequency
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Low-frequency variability during th
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Fig. 14.10. As Fig. 14.9, except fo
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Low-frequency variability In genera
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Low-frequency variability Mantua, N
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15.1. Introduction Statistical anal
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Statistical analysis of extreme eve
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CURRÍCULA OF THE AUTHORS Vicente B
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Curricula of the autors Rubén Mari
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Proyect: SGP II 057: “Trends in t
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