chapter - Atmospheric and Oceanic Science

12.4.2. Sea level rise scenarios
Climate scenarios
One of the projected impacts in the context of global warming is the sea level
rise. Both the thermal expansion of the sea water as well as the melting of the ice
sheets and glaciers contribute to this phenomenon. In addition, local conditions
such as descents in coastal lands, tectonic movements, changes in the oceanic circulation,
tides and storms must also be considered in the elaboration of scenarios of
future sea level change. Figure 12.3 shows different scenarios of sea level change
that show between 0.25-0.45 m for the period 1900-2100 (IPCC 2001). If adding
the uncertainties between the models this range increases to 0.20-0.70 m, and if all
uncertainties are considered to 0.10-0.90 m.
Fig. 12.3. Scenarios of sea level rise for the period 1990-2100.
[IPCC, 2001]
12.5. Validation of GCMs outputs for the current period
GCMs have been increasing their complexity to represent in an increasingly
adequate manner the physical processes involved in the climate system. Even
though they are not still capable of representing the totality of processes and have
certain difficulties, like the interaction between radiation and aerosols, their capacity
to represent current climate has been progressing and therefore the reliability of
their future projections is growing.
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