DT e-Paper 29 March 2017

Opinion 15
Keeping up with the Modi wave
Does Modi mark the end of secularist parties?
DT
WEDNESDAY, MARCH 29, 2017
• Sarwar Jahan Chowdhury
The recent elections in
India ended with some
interesting outcomes.
Provincial election took
place in five states, among which
Uttar Pradesh (UP) is by far the
largest province in India in terms
of population and political clout
as it has the most seats in a single
state (about 15%) out of India’s 29
states.
It’s also the second largest
economy amongst Indian states
and it’s adjacent to the federal
capital Delhi. Elections were also
held in two medium-sized states,
Punjab and Uttarkhand, and in two
smaller states, Manipur and Goa.
The BJP won the biggest prize
-- Uttar Pradesh -- with a majority.
It has stormed into power in UP
after 15 long years and it appears
that it did so by riding on the
Narendra Modi wave. Mr Modi was
actively involved in the campaign
and addressed huge numbers
of rallies. He became the face of
the campaign for the party in UP,
despite being the country’s prime
minister.
However, for the grand old
Congress party, it wasn’t all doom
and gloom this time. They won
back Punjab decisively from the
regional Sikh Akali Dal-led alliance
where the BJP is a junior partner.
They are also the single largest
party in Manipur and Goa.
The supposed new political
force, the Aam Admi Party (AAP),
was projected to do well in Punjab
and Goa, but it under-performed;
although it was able to become the
main opposition in Punjab despite
running for the first time.
Politics in India is extremely
complex as it is fraught with
many factors such as caste,
communalism, linguistic ethnicity,
leadership, reservations, and of
course, current developmental
issues. Often it’s not easy to
precisely predict which factor
would become predominant in
which election. Mr Modi had some
developmental success in Gujarat
where he was the chief minister
for more than a decade. With that,
he craftily re-branded himself
from a dubious Hindutva leader, in
the context of Gujarat riot of 2002,
to a developmental messiah.
A strong personality, possessing
effective oratory skills, Modi
communicates much better with
people than his challenger -- the
polished Rahul Gandhi.
In India, political capital of
a charismatic leader normally
lasts for two terms or a decade
in one go. Sonia Gandhi attained
A development messiah?
charisma by guiding the Congress
alliance to victory in 2004, and
rose to high stature by refusing
to take up coveted premiership,
as some of the defeated BJP
leaders raised her Italian origin
issue, which she could easily have
ignored.
The success was repeated
in 2009 with the help of the
knowledgeable and modest
Manmohan Singh, prompting a
change in the old guards of BJP
high command in 2014. As the
Congress-led alliance lived its life
span, and development slowed
down, the stage was set for the
development messiah in the form
of Modi. Modi did well to gradually
phase out the Advani-led old
guards, co-opted some intelligent
ones like Arun Jaitley and Rajnath
Singh, and took his chances in
the 2014 general election with the
assistance of loyal strategist Amit
Shah.
While his RSS back ground and
post 2002 credentials ensured his
implicit Hindutva image, he did
what he needed to do -- talk again
and again about development with
his very effective articulations.
This is the genesis of the famous
and much talked about Modi wave,
comprising explicit development
and implicit Hindutva.
Despite their initial open
Hindutva agendas like Ram
Mandir, BJP has demonstrated
some flexibility and responsibility
while in power in the past. It’s a
large party and there are various
streams and sub-streams within it.
There are raw hinduntavadis
like Yogi Adityanath, moderates
like Shivraj Sing Chauhan, and
also polished educated gentleman
like Arun Jaitley. While some
radical youths are prone to
persecuting minorities and Dalits,
the moderates try to hold them
back; for example, Modi openly
renounced cow vigilantes a few
months back. Many moderates
ride the saffron bandwagon
but ultimately work to make it
moderate. If a right wing force
accepts moderation, that’s a good
thing for the society and polity,
and the party will deserve some
commendation in such cases.
BJP, though, nominated Yogi
Adintyanath as UP’s chief minister
with two moderate deputies after
the election. It also has a masked
caste calculation like its allocation
of tickets for the assembly
election. It’s to be seen now, how
Adityanath, a raw populist in
Hindutva constituency, fits into
Modi’s development schemes.
Can Adityanath moderate
himself as already expected by
BJP’s commands?
It’s clear that BJP wont deviate
much from the current mixture
of development and some bit of
Hindutva, a winning formula in
recent years. It has been a debacle
for the traditional secular parties
in UP, this election. Despite the
phenomenal numbers in terms
of seats, BJP received about 40%
of votes while the fragmented
seculars received more than 50%.
A secular unity like the one
in 1993 of the two major parties
the SP and the BSP could have
prevented the Modi wave as a
similar collaboration did in Bihar
last year. But in UP, that alliance
didn’t happen.
One key observation is that,
many Indian secularist politicians,
media, and intelligentsia
sometimes overplay their hand,
especially when it comes to
secularism and minorities. Amit
Shah and his strategist read
that perfectly. While SP and BSP
were overtly fighting for Muslim
minority votes alongside their
caste bases, BJP propaganda
reduced these parties to mere
minority-based parties and
consolidated the bulk of majority
votes across the caste cleavage in
favour of them.
The secularist ideologues and
politicians need to understand
the Muslim minority, and that too
a fragmented one, can’t win the
REUTERS
This is the genesis of the famous and much talked about Modi wave,
comprising explicit development and implicit Hindutva
election.
The decline of Congress
and lack of leadership of Rahul
Ghandhi is quite noticeable. Its
lack of dynamic leadership in
major provinces due to its over
dependence on the Gandhi family
is another issue. One exception
was Punjab, due the presence of
likeable and visionary Amrinder
Singh. Congress won it fair and
square. The Gandhis keep the
Congress united, yet they should
take a back seat for some time
and allow some other and more
people-connected leaders to grow.
It’s neither the end of secularist
parties, including the Congress,
nor is the Modi wave perennial.
The latter will get few more years’
time to deliver something remarkable.
An average or below average
performance will allow others to
reclaim the political space. Overall,
in India, politics still operates
within some kind of workable
democratic order under a modern
constitution. Keeping it going is
the most important thing. •
Sarwar Jahan Chowdhury is an freelance
commentator on politics, society and
international relations. He currently
works at BRAC Institute of Governance
and Development (BIGD).