DT e-Paper 29 March 2017

Opinion 13
Brexit through the looking glass
The clock is ticking. Time to get real
DT
WEDNESDAY, MARCH 29, 2017
• Niaz Alam
Be careful what you wish
for.
This seems to be the
only lesson possible to
draw nine months on after the
UK’s referendum decision to leave
the European Union.
In the very week Theresa May
formally triggers Article 50 to start
the process of withdrawal, UKIP
-- the fringe yet influential party
that inspired Brexit -- bites the
dust in Westminster as, with all
irony intended, its sole elected MP
has declared he will now sit as an
independent.
Not that UKIP is entirely
without electoral representation.
Just that most of this lies in the
24 seats it won in the European
Parliament in 2014. Come the
actual day the UK actually leaves
the EU, all these seats will be
abolished. Nigel Farage’s included.
The list of Brexit’s political
victims is a long one.
David Cameron obviously.
Jo Cox, the MP murdered a
week before the vote, most sadly.
Not to mention various Brexiteers
who either hadn’t wanted to
win or ended up sidelined by
a new prime minister who had
campaigned to remain.
Spare a thought too for the
Bangladesh Caterers Association,
whose leader campaigned for
Brexit in the belief it would make it
easier to import chefs from South
Asia. Despite him being on the
winning side, this looks less than
likely to happen.
Hardly surprising given the
caterers’ aim depends on the
equation “more xenophobia + less
immigration = fewer Europeans/
more Asian immigrants” making
logical and political sense.
Yet, similar ideas have long
been encouraged by a mixed bag
of libertarians and rose-tinted fans
of empire prominent among Brexit
advocates.
Britain “freeing” itself from
Europe “will open the UK to the
world” is one of the older, and
superficially more attractive,
stands of Eurosceptic thinking in
right-wing circles.
Such strands largely got blown
away almost immediately the
Leave result was announced.
However individuals voted,
media and public opinions alike
tended to quickly agree to mainly
attribute Brexit to desires to “take
back control from Europe” and
“control borders.”
Overnight, the hitherto
plausible option of the UK
remaining in the Single Market
after leaving the EU, suddenly but
seemingly decisively, became dead
in the water.
Less obviously, the referendum
result also became a stick
with which to bash Jeremy
Corbyn’s tenure as Leader of
the Opposition. While Cameron
walked away to a quiet retirement,
Corbyn got the full trifecta.
Remainers complaining he did
not campaign hard enough even
though he was not responsible for
the result.
Leavers criticising him for
being a Remainer, even though
his position was lukewarm and
much the same as Theresa May.
And to boot, a divisive and wholly
unnecessary leadership election
helping push the Labour party
down in opinion polls.
Most seriously of all, Labour’s
problem is not that its MPs have
been unwilling or unable to find
Interrelationships
and mutual selfinterest
between
the EU and UK are
too large and run too
deep for common
sense to be kept at
bay for much longer
a more popular alternative to
Corbyn, but that Theresa May
has stolen Jeremy Corbyn’s best
clothes.
Being softly spoken, appearing
unassuming. Not being (as)
obsessed with hour by hour
headlines as the Blair, Brown,
Cameron governments. Generally
being a grown up. Theresa May
can do that in spades.
If polls are to be believed, all
she has to do to guarantee winning
next time, is to deliver Brexit.
Everything else is mere timing.
Events and bad economic news
could get in the way of course, but
such is true come what may.
As is true also for the Scottish
government talking itself into
pushing for an early rerun of
the 2014 Scottish Independence
referendum. Theresa May might
What does the ‘divorce bill’ mean for the UK?
be gifted new opportunities to
look strong.
Paradoxically, given her style,
Theresa May’s biggest advantage
could just turn out to be spin.
In politics, perception is
(nearly) everything.
Spend months letting the media
tell everyone how complicated,
lengthy, and difficult it will be for
the UK and EU to negotiate an
orderly Brexit, as most in Brussels
and London tend to agree, and
everyone will look good when a
deal is done.
Until now, the wait for Article
50 has kept cheap talk and
encouraged much hot air.
For sure, some decision makers
in the EU really do want to set an
example and ‘’punish’’ the UK
“pour encorager les autres.”
And it is true there is talk of a 50
billion pound “divorce bill” being
demanded of the UK by the EU. As
it is also that politicians all across
Europe, not just the UK, have
blithely talked about the millions
of EU citizens living and working
in the UK, and vice versa, as being
“bargaining chips’’ in forthcoming
negotiations.
But the clock is ticking now.
Time to get real. When the EU has
a large trade surplus over the UK
(and EU companies such as BMW
own many of the UK’s leading
exporters) talk of tariffs and
punishments makes no economic
sense.
Interrelationships and mutual
self-interest between the EU and
UK are too large and run too deep
for common sense to be kept at
bay for much longer.
Likewise, it is pure politics,
fiction, and grandstanding for
London and Brussels to collude
in pretending large numbers of
EU citizens living and working in
other EU states, all of whom are
meant to have equal rights under
European law, are at risk of having
rights taken away or even being
deported.
Yes I know. Nationalism,
xenophobia, racism, and indeed,
fascism in all its forms are on
the rise and global politics is in a
disturbing phase right now.
But, assuming European
economies muddle on as they
have, and the EU remains largely
intact, it’s scarcely credible to
imagine European countries
demanding stringent visa
requirements of UK nationals to
stop them visiting on post-Brexit
holidays, let alone engaging in tit
for tat expulsions of each others’
citizens. Even in a world with
President Trump.
When it comes to immigration,
the unspoken truth, which deep
down most people appreciate,
even after debate has been
poisoned by racist rhetoric, is
that there is only one guaranteed
and practical way for a rich
complex economy in Western
Europe, to reduce immigration
-- by becoming less economically
attractive. The paradox of course
is that recession and economic loss
are nobody’s idea of a vote winner.
As for that 50bn pound demand
from Brussels? It sounds steep
at first, and could just be bluff,
but if you bear in mind the UK
government currently pays 13bn
pounds a year, it’s around four
years of gross subscriptions.
REUTERS
Given the UK is implicitly
committed to giving two years
notice and is part of funding many
programs which either demand
transitional arrangements or
which it may want to continue
being part of, and this too might be
more a matter of perception and
presentation.
Truth be told, compared to the
bigger picture of global challenges
of climate chaos and inequality,
faced by the world’s economy
and people, negotiating a smooth
Brexit is a breeze in the park. Even
for the UK, in the long run, it is
likely to make far less difference
than say, Scotland becoming
independent, or the island of
Ireland voting for unification.
More apocalyptic scenarios,
especially for the UK as the smaller
party, are available (POTUS related
and otherwise).
In more likelihood though,
and however much high powered
negotiators will be loath to
admit it, much of the future of
impending Brexit, is going to
depend on both the EU and UK
keeping a lot of laws, rules, and
relationships much as they already
are.
The more things change on the
surface, for good or bad, the more
they may remain the same.
Plus ça change. •
Niaz Alam is a member of the Editorial
Board of Dhaka Tribune. A qualified
lawyer, he has worked on corporate
responsibility and ethical business
issues since 1992. He sat on the Board
of the London Pensions Fund Authority
between 2001-2010 and is a former
vice-chair of War on Want.