ASG-ASIA-PACIFIC-Business-Jet-Fleet-Report-YE2014-EN
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GREATER CHINA<br />
FORECAST FOR 2015<br />
The forecast for 2015 for the Greater China market is dire indeed. For one, all of the market drivers noted earlier<br />
in this report will remain throughout the year and continue to negatively influence buying sentiment in the Greater<br />
China market. <strong>ASG</strong> also expects pre-owned activity to remain low and deductions to increase as more and more<br />
owners either sell their existing aircraft or move them out of the region. But whereas 2014 was propped up by new<br />
aircraft deliveries from the OEMs, this will not be the case in 2015. As noted earlier, new aircraft deliveries slightly<br />
increased in 2014. However, this was the end result from orders placed in 2012 and 2013. 2015 will see a decline<br />
in new deliveries as OEM sales in Greater China declined in 2014.<br />
Additionally a major influence on new aircraft deliveries by OEMs in 2015 will be the existing backlog with the<br />
Chinese leasing companies. By <strong>ASG</strong>’s estimation, between the 5 main Chinese business jet leasing companies,<br />
there exists roughly 30 new aircraft either delivered and unsold or due to be delivered in 2015 hanging over the<br />
market. These new aircraft will in particular present significant market challenges to Gulfstream and Bombardier<br />
throughout the year as both these OEMs and leasing companies compete for the same base of dwindling potential<br />
buyers. Of note and a harbinger for deliveries beyond 2015, even though these leasing companies have historically<br />
been large buyers of new aircraft, they are unlikely to place any new orders in 2015.<br />
The potential silver lining is that while the combined effects of slowing GDP and the government’s austerity / anticorruption<br />
measure have weighed heavily on the Greater China market in 2014, the relatively favourable exchange<br />
rate, combined with willing sellers, willing operators and willing financiers in 2015 should provide a small measure of<br />
positive outlook for the market.<br />
All things considered through, <strong>ASG</strong> is still predicting the Greater China market to slow overall in 2015 and growth to<br />
be in the area of just 10%.<br />
No of<br />
Aircraft<br />
500<br />
+41.5%<br />
+42.3%<br />
+49.8%<br />
400 380<br />
40%<br />
439<br />
480<br />
Growth<br />
Rate %<br />
50%<br />
316<br />
300<br />
+28.3%<br />
30%<br />
+25.4%<br />
211<br />
+20.3%<br />
200 20%<br />
148<br />
+15.5%<br />
118<br />
100 92<br />
+9.33%<br />
10%<br />
65<br />
0 0<br />
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015<br />
<strong>ASIA</strong> <strong>PACIFIC</strong> BUSINESS JET FLEET REPORT YEAR <strong>EN</strong>D 2014<br />
71
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