First International Conference on MOLDAVIAN RISKS – FROM ...
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First International Conference on MOLDAVIAN RISKS – FROM ...

First International Conference on MOLDAVIAN RISKS – FROM ... First International Conference on MOLDAVIAN RISKS – FROM ...

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ong>Firstong> ong>Internationalong> ong>Conferenceong> on MOLDAVIAN RISKS - FROM GLOBAL TO LOCAL SCALE 16-19 May 2012, Bacau, Romania A SEISMIC RISK ANALYSIS FOR VRANCEA AND BACAU COUNTIES, BASED ON SELENA AND GIS SOFTWARE Dragos Toma Danila National Institute for Earth Physics, Magurele, Ilfov, Romania Corresponding author: Dragos Toma Danila, toma@infp.ro Abstract: In the last years, thanks to the implementation of the ShakeMap software in realtime at the National Institute for Earth Physics (NIEP) and within the DACEA Project, a system that computes damage and loss estimates in (near) real-time for the Romanian- Bulgarian border region was installed at NIEP, producing data and maps, on Romanian side - for 7 counties. But the system was also designed so that it has the capability to allow extending and upgrading the database, for all Romanian counties and taking into consideration the permanent evolution of building stock and population. The main purpose of this paper is to present both the integration mode and the results obtained by adding new counties into the implemented system, and also to present best ways for a GIS representation of the estimated damage. Of great interest is that the new counties – Vrancea and Bacau, are right on top of the active seismic area of Vrancea, compared to the previous analyzed 7 counties that are more than 100 km away from the epicentral area. For damage computation it was used the open-source software SELENA (Seismic Loss Estimation using a Logic Tree Approach), with the real-time module based on PGA and Sa values at 0.3 and 1.0 seconds, provided by a 10 by 10 km grid produced by ShakeMap. Of course, for results were simulated significant previously recorded earthquakes: the ones on 4 march 1977 (Mw 7.4), 30 august 1986 (Mw 7.1) and 30 may 1990 (Mw 6.9). The static database included number of buildings from the 2002 census, at UAT (administrativeterritorial unity) level. Buildings were classified in 55 individual types, each with a specific capacity and fragility curve. The method used to obtain damage probabilities was the more recent Improved Displacement Coefficient Method (I-DCM). The spatial characteristic of the generated output provided a good basis for the use of GIS tools, which added important contribution to how data is visualized and used for planning and intervention purposes. There are many practical sides of the paper: first of all is that based on past events it is illustrated how the damage might look like nowadays in a very exposed area and what are the risks to be dealt with. Also, the certain accuracy of the loss assessment is validated, so that the new counties can be included in the real-time damage estimation system at NIEP. Key words: seismic risk, Selena software, Bacau & Focsani counties, damage estimation, GIS. 48

ong>Firstong> ong>Internationalong> ong>Conferenceong> on MOLDAVIAN RISKS - FROM GLOBAL TO LOCAL SCALE 16-19 May 2012, Bacau, Romania A BAYESIAN APPROACH FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF RISK IMPACT CASE STUDY FOR DIGITAL RISK IMPACT Elena Nechita, Carmen -Violeta Muraru, Mihai Talmaciu “Vasile Alecsandri” University of Bacau, Department of Mathematics, Informatics and Educational Sciences Corresponding author: Elena Nechita, enechita@ub.ro Abstract: Our society faces new challenges and risks, due to the interdependency of the elements comprising its critical infrastructure (such as energy, transports, and digital). This paper presents a framework for the impact assessment of the natural or man-made disasters in Bacău County. Considering overlapping chains of events that could potentially occur as consequences of a disaster and the associated risk probabilities, the model allows its user to vary certain parameters and observe the effects on the global, computed impact. The analysis behind integrates the design of a semantic graph that includes most of the hazardous events which have been recorded during the last decades in the targeted area, and the Bayesian approach of uncertainty. A particular emphasis is placed on aspects concerning the risks associated to informatics systems. The model could be used to support the best decisions in a given situation, facilitating the focus on the most significant risks and especially on the protection of digital infrastructure. Key words: Bayesian probability, semantic graph, digital infrastructure, risk impact. 49

<str<strong>on</strong>g>First</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Internati<strong>on</strong>al</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>C<strong>on</strong>ference</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> <strong>MOLDAVIAN</strong> <strong>RISKS</strong> - <strong>FROM</strong> GLOBAL TO LOCAL SCALE<br />

16-19 May 2012, Bacau, Romania<br />

A BAYESIAN APPROACH FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF RISK<br />

IMPACT CASE STUDY FOR DIGITAL RISK IMPACT<br />

Elena Nechita, Carmen -Violeta Muraru, Mihai Talmaciu<br />

“Vasile Alecsandri” University of Bacau, Department of Mathematics,<br />

Informatics and Educati<strong>on</strong>al Sciences<br />

Corresp<strong>on</strong>ding author: Elena Nechita, enechita@ub.ro<br />

Abstract: Our society faces new challenges and risks, due to the interdependency of the<br />

elements comprising its critical infrastructure (such as energy, transports, and digital). This<br />

paper presents a framework for the impact assessment of the natural or man-made disasters<br />

in Bacău County. C<strong>on</strong>sidering overlapping chains of events that could potentially occur as<br />

c<strong>on</strong>sequences of a disaster and the associated risk probabilities, the model allows its user to<br />

vary certain parameters and observe the effects <strong>on</strong> the global, computed impact. The<br />

analysis behind integrates the design of a semantic graph that includes most of the<br />

hazardous events which have been recorded during the last decades in the targeted area,<br />

and the Bayesian approach of uncertainty. A particular emphasis is placed <strong>on</strong> aspects<br />

c<strong>on</strong>cerning the risks associated to informatics systems. The model could be used to support<br />

the best decisi<strong>on</strong>s in a given situati<strong>on</strong>, facilitating the focus <strong>on</strong> the most significant risks<br />

and especially <strong>on</strong> the protecti<strong>on</strong> of digital infrastructure.<br />

Key words: Bayesian probability, semantic graph, digital infrastructure, risk impact.<br />

49

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