First International Conference on MOLDAVIAN RISKS – FROM ...

<strong>First</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Conference</strong> on MOLDAVIAN RISKS - FROM GLOBAL TO LOCAL SCALE
16-19 May 2012, Bacau, Romania
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES OF WIND SPEAD
AND TEMPERATURE
Burtiev Rashid, Ghenadie Spatari
Institute of Geology and Seismology of Academy of Science of Moldova
Corresponding author: Burtiev Rashid, burtiev_rashid@mail.ru
Abstract: The time series of air temperature and wind speed are analyzed. Trend and
periodical components are defined for both time series with no significant statistical
relationship between series. The spectral analysis of temperature series without trend
shows the peak on frequency fc=1/12 that corresponds to seasonal periodical component.
The graph of spectral density function of wind speed time series doesn’t manifest this type
of relationship. Future behavior forecasting is carried out on exponential smoothing with
moving average window approach and ARIMA model for both time series. Prediction until
2012 is computed using the proposed approach that is based on multiplicative winters and
ARIMA models. The patterns could be used in the solution of the general water balance
equation for a comprehensive assessment of water resources in the region.
Key words: Time series of wind speed and temperature; autocorrelation function; spectral analysis;
ARIMA models.
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