First International Conference on MOLDAVIAN RISKS – FROM ...

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<strong>First</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Conference</strong> on MOLDAVIAN RISKS - FROM GLOBAL TO LOCAL SCALE 16-19 May 2012, Bacau, Romania SEISMOGENIC ZONES AND SEISMIC HAZARD AT LOCAL AND REGIONAL SCALES IN MOLDAVIA Mircea Radulian, Neculai Mandrescu National Institute for Earth Physics, Magurele, Ilfov, Department of Seismology Corresponding author: Mircea Radulian, mircea@infp.ro Abstract: The paper is presenting an overall characterization of the seismotectonics and seismicity in the Moldavia region as fundamentals to define the seismogenic zones and the associated seismic hazard for this region. The hazard level is clearly controlled by the earthquake activity in the Vrancea region. Some effects recorded at the southern boundary of the Moldavian Platform (Galati – Braila) are induced by the shallow seismicity located along the system of NW-SE oriented faults (Peceneaga-Camena, Sfantu Gheorghe, Trotus), crossing the northern Dobrogea and terminating in the Barlad Depression. The distribution of the seismic hazard due to the Vrancea earthquakes is analyzed in connection with the revised macroseismic data and instrumentally recorded accelerograms. The effects of the focal depth, source directivity and seismic wave attenuation and their impact on hazard level are investigated. The amplification of the ground motion due to the shallow geological layers and resonance frequency in the Bacau area and surroundings are estimated on the basis of borehole data. Implications on management strategy to mitigate earthquake risk are finally discussed. Key words: seismogenic zone, Vrancea earthquake, seismic hazard, microzonation, Moldavia, Bacau 24
<strong>First</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Conference</strong> on MOLDAVIAN RISKS - FROM GLOBAL TO LOCAL SCALE 16-19 May 2012, Bacau, Romania CLUSTER ANALYSIS TO SELECT THE SEISMIC ZONES OF ROMANIA Burtiev Rashid Institute of Geology and Seismology of Academy of Science of Moldova Corresponding author: Burtiev Rashid, burtiev_rashid@mail.ru Abstract: Cluster Analysis is a collection of objects similar to one another within the same cluster and dissimilar to the objects in other clusters. The epicenters are tendency for clustering. Therefore was done the attempt use cluster analysis forr establishing seismic zoning of Romania. Applied non-hierarchical k means and agglomerative hierarchical clustering algorithms. Determining the optimal number of clusters was carried out according to the minimum of the total variance, the average silhouette width, the maximum of Calinski-Harabasz; Krzanowski-Lai Index, and the method of Elbow. Methods to optimize the quality of clustering solution identified in 4 clusters. Calculated by the method of silhouettes and the values of Akaike and Bayesian information criterion optimal number of clusters is 3. But the dominant decision be cluster 4. Consequently, in Romania there are defined 4 seismic regions. Cluster analysis identified 34 seismic zones in Italy. The cluster decision 34 was estimated the “Two step”. Key words: Seismic regions; cluster analysis; information criterion. 25
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Sponsors of the conference Sodexo P
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