First International Conference on MOLDAVIAN RISKS – FROM ...

Recommendations

Info

<strong>First</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Conference</strong> on MOLDAVIAN RISKS - FROM GLOBAL TO LOCAL SCALE 16-19 May 2012, Bacau, Romania GEODYNAMICS AND INTERMEDIATE-DEPTH SEISMICITY IN VRANCEA Alik Ismail-Zadeh 1, 2, 3 , Liviu Matenco 4 , Mircea Radulian 5 , Sierd Cloetingh 4 , 6, 7 Giuliano Panza 1 Geophysikalisches Institut, Karlsruher Institut für Technologie, Germany 2 <strong>International</strong> Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia 3 Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Paris, France 4 Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands 5 National Institute for Earth Physics, Ilfov, Romania 6 Dipartimento di Geoscienze, Università di Trieste, Trieste, Italy 7 The Abdus Salam <strong>International</strong> Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy Corresponding author: Alik Ismail-Zadeh Alik.Ismail-Zadeh@kit.edu Abstract: The Vrancea region of the south-eastern Carpathians is a remarkable site of intra-continental intermediate-depth seismicity. A large set of geological, geophysical, and geodetic observations have been accumulated for the last few decades and utilised to improve our knowledge of the shallow and deep structures beneath Vrancea, the crustal and mantle dynamics, and the linkage between deep and surface processes in the region. We review geology and tectonics of the Vrancea region including post-collisional to recent deformations, syn- to post-collisional magmatism, and orogenic exhumation along the East and South Carpathians. The regional seismicity is analysed, and the recent seismic studies including reflection, refraction, body and surface wave tomography are reviewed. We discuss geodetic measurements of horizontal and vertical movements in the region, geoelectric studies, density/gravity and thermal modelling. Qualitative and quantitative (including retrospective) geodynamic models developed for Vrancea are analysed. The knowledge of regional tectonics, geodynamics, seismicity, lithospheric deformation, and stress regime in the Vrancea earthquake-prone region assists in an assessment of strong ground motion, seismic hazard and risk. The earthquake simulation, seismic hazard, and earthquake forecasting models have also been reviewed providing a link between deep geodynamic processes and their manifestation on the surface. Finally we discuss unresolved problems in Vrancea in order to improve our understanding of the regional evolution, present tectonics, mantle dynamics, intermediate-depth seismicity, and surface manifestations of the lithosphere dynamics and to enhance our ability to forecast strong earthquakes in the Vrancea region. 20
<strong>First</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Conference</strong> on MOLDAVIAN RISKS - FROM GLOBAL TO LOCAL SCALE 16-19 May 2012, Bacau, Romania QUESTIONS ABOUT THE GLOBAL WARMING Jean-Louis Le Mouël Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Membre de l'Académie des Sciences Corresponding author: Jean-Louis Le Mouël, E-mail address lemouel@ipgp.fr Abstract: One first gives a brief presentation of the greenhouse effect, as it is generally understood, and of the concentration evolution of one of the greenhouse effect gases present in the atmosphere, the carbon dioxide, CO2. The increase of this concentration is due, for an essential part, to the burning of oil, natural gas and coal; it is said anthropogenic. Is the increase, since 1850, of the global temperature of the lower atmosphere layers, widely accepted, due to this increase of the CO2 increase? That is currently the dominant view, harshly defended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). But this is only a hypothesis. The climate indeed, varies, and has varied at all time scales, from day to hundreds of million years. The two relevant questions are the following: i) Is the temperature elevation observed during the 20 th century exceptional? ii) Does it require anthropogenic causes? The two observations on which the thesis of the anthropogenic global warming relies upon are: a more rapid increase of the mean temperature during the last half or third part of the 20 th century, and temperatures reaching higher values over the 20 th century than during the two milenia before. None of them – the second “observation” being hampered by poor data – can be considered as proving human global warming. The argument in favor of this thesis relays on predictions obtained from numerical models. Up to which point can we trust them? The effect of the Sun activity on climate variations is claimed to be fairly small. This is not sure at all, the Sun activity signature being found in a number of climatological parameters. This aspect is also underlined during the presentation. Finally, some aspects of a possible impact of global changes on local scales are considered. Key words: climate changes, greenhouse gases, temperature evolution, Sun activity. 21
Page 1: “VASILE ALECSANDRI” UNIVERSITY
Page 4 and 5: Editors: Mioara Mandea, Gabriel Laz
Page 7 and 8: First Inte
Page 19: First Inte
Page 71 and 72:
First Inte
Page 73 and 74:
First Inte
Page 75 and 76:
First Inte
Page 77 and 78:
First Inte
Page 79 and 80:
First Inte
Page 81 and 82:
First Inte
Page 83 and 84:
First Inte
Page 85 and 86:
First Inte
Page 87 and 88:
First Inte
Page 89 and 90:
First Inte
Page 91 and 92:
First Inte
Page 93 and 94:
First Inte
Page 95 and 96:
First Inte
Page 97 and 98:
First Inte
Page 99 and 100:
First Inte
Page 101 and 102:
First Inte
Page 103 and 104:
First Inte
Page 105 and 106:
First Inte
Page 107 and 108:
First Inte
Page 109 and 110:
First Inte
Page 111 and 112:
Sponsors of the conference Sodexo P
show all

First International Conference on MOLDAVIAN RISKS – FROM ...

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?