Duvernay Reserves and Resources Report
DuvernayReserves_2016 DuvernayReserves_2016
Alberta Energy Regulator 5000 Number of locations (prospective) 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1944 704 360 880 Kaybob Condensate Gas Oil 2152 840 976 336 Edson-Willesden Green 440 Innisfail 4536 1544 1336 1656 Total Assessment area Figure 29. Prospective resource potential drilling locations assessment area, and 440 in the Innisfail assessment area. As part of the prospective resource evaluation, future potential drilling locations were calculated assuming development over a 15- to 30-year period. The same methodologies used to assign undeveloped gas, condensate, and oil reserves in Section 5.3.1, Section 5.3.2, and Section 5.3.3, respectively, were used to assign gas, condensate, and oil best estimate prospective resources within each assessment area. Since a full economic evaluation was not undertaken, the chance of commerciality for prospective resources in the Duvernay was estimated at 50% for each assessment area. There is an opportunity to convert prospective resources into contingent resources and eventually into reserves as new technology is developed and further cost savings are realized. Generally, the technical factors that would affect the prospective resource estimates from what is provided in this report includes further decreasing the spacing between pad wells and delineation drilling across each assessment area and future technology improvements. The amount of this resource that can be economically recovered is dependent on drilling and completions optimization, cost reductions, expected liquids yields, processing capacity, facility design, additional transport, commodity pricing, and other social, environmental, and regulatory constraints. 40 Duvernay Reserves and Resources Report (December 2016)
Alberta Energy Regulator 8.2 Prospective Resources Results Prospective resources associated with the Duvernay were estimated for oil, gas, and condensate by assessment area, and are subclassified as maturity status “prospect.” A commercial risk factor of 50% was applied to the EUR estimates to derive a risked prospective resources best estimate given the uncertainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the prospective resources associated with the Duvernay. Total regional risked prospective resources were determined by summing the results from each assessment area. 8.2.1 Total Duvernay Prospective Resources Best estimate risked prospective resources are 864 MMboe. The total potentially recoverable risked best estimate prospective resources are provided in Table 9. The estimates of prospective resources are estimates only and there is no assurance that the estimated prospective resources will be recovered. There is also uncertainty that it will be commercially viable in the future to produce any part of the prospective resources. 8.2.2 Prospective Resources by Assessment Area Duvernay prospective resources were estimated for oil, gas, and condensate within the Kaybob, Edson- Willesden Green, and Innisfail assessment areas. The potentially recoverable risked best estimate prospective resources by assessment area are provided in Table 9. 9 Future Work The reserves and resources estimates provided in this report are based on new probabilistic techniques, and will be changed as new information becomes available. Future work will include • a comprehensive geological assessment of the Duvernay Innisfail play, • direct estimations of time to end of linear flow as an input for probabilistic declines, • full probabilistic declines as inputs for the time-series simulation, and • revised methods for determining the chance of commerciality for contingent and prospective resources. Table 9. Prospective resources (best estimate) by assessment area, effective January 1, 2016 * Oil Gas Condensate BOE (MMbbl) (Bcf) (MMbbl) (MMboe) Kaybob 99 1 310 168 486 Edson-Willesden Green 38 1 527 30 322 Innisfail 50 37 0 56 Total Duvernay 186 2 873 198 864 * A commercial risk factor of 50% was applied. Duvernay Reserves and Resources Report (December 2016) 41
- Page 1 and 2: Duvernay Reserves and Resources Rep
- Page 3 and 4: Alberta Energy Regulator Contents 1
- Page 5: Alberta Energy Regulator Figure 11.
- Page 8 and 9: Alberta Energy Regulator Of the rem
- Page 10 and 11: Alberta Energy Regulator Probabilis
- Page 12 and 13: Alberta Energy Regulator Figure 2.
- Page 14 and 15: Alberta Energy Regulator The AER su
- Page 16 and 17: Alberta Energy Regulator Figure 4.
- Page 18 and 19: Alberta Energy Regulator Developmen
- Page 20 and 21: Alberta Energy Regulator Table 2. D
- Page 22 and 23: Alberta Energy Regulator The COGEH
- Page 24 and 25: Alberta Energy Regulator analysis.
- Page 26 and 27: Alberta Energy Regulator Both of th
- Page 28 and 29: Alberta Energy Regulator P1 P2 P5 P
- Page 30 and 31: Alberta Energy Regulator 600 500 Cu
- Page 32 and 33: Alberta Energy Regulator Currently
- Page 34 and 35: Alberta Energy Regulator 40 35 Numb
- Page 36 and 37: Alberta Energy Regulator and P50 EU
- Page 38 and 39: Alberta Energy Regulator 450 CGR (b
- Page 40 and 41: Alberta Energy Regulator 6.2 Duvern
- Page 42 and 43: Alberta Energy Regulator the Duvern
- Page 44 and 45: Alberta Energy Regulator currently
- Page 46 and 47: Alberta Energy Regulator 7.3 Contin
- Page 50 and 51: Alberta Energy Regulator 10 Referen
- Page 53 and 54: Alberta Energy Regulator Appendix 1
- Page 55 and 56: Alberta Energy Regulator Poisson’
- Page 57 and 58: Alberta Energy Regulator tight hybr
- Page 59 and 60: Alberta Energy Regulator Figure 31.
- Page 61 and 62: Alberta Energy Regulator Figure 33.
- Page 63 and 64: Alberta Energy Regulator Figure 34.
- Page 65 and 66: Alberta Energy Regulator Figure 36.
- Page 67 and 68: Alberta Energy Regulator Figure 38.
- Page 69 and 70: Alberta Energy Regulator Total Orga
- Page 71 and 72: Alberta Energy Regulator Figure 41.
- Page 73 and 74: Alberta Energy Regulator Appendix 4
- Page 75 and 76: Alberta Energy Regulator Appendix 5
- Page 77: Alberta Energy Regulator 600 000 80
- Page 82 and 83: Alberta Energy Regulator Gas Wells
- Page 84 and 85: Alberta Energy Regulator Gas Wells
Alberta Energy Regulator<br />
8.2 Prospective <strong>Resources</strong> Results<br />
Prospective resources associated with the <strong>Duvernay</strong> were estimated for oil, gas, <strong>and</strong> condensate by<br />
assessment area, <strong>and</strong> are subclassified as maturity status “prospect.” A commercial risk factor of 50% was<br />
applied to the EUR estimates to derive a risked prospective resources best estimate given the uncertainty<br />
that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the prospective resources associated with the<br />
<strong>Duvernay</strong>. Total regional risked prospective resources were determined by summing the results from each<br />
assessment area.<br />
8.2.1 Total <strong>Duvernay</strong> Prospective <strong>Resources</strong><br />
Best estimate risked prospective resources are 864 MMboe. The total potentially recoverable risked best<br />
estimate prospective resources are provided in Table 9.<br />
The estimates of prospective resources are estimates only <strong>and</strong> there is no assurance that the estimated<br />
prospective resources will be recovered. There is also uncertainty that it will be commercially viable in<br />
the future to produce any part of the prospective resources.<br />
8.2.2 Prospective <strong>Resources</strong> by Assessment Area<br />
<strong>Duvernay</strong> prospective resources were estimated for oil, gas, <strong>and</strong> condensate within the Kaybob, Edson-<br />
Willesden Green, <strong>and</strong> Innisfail assessment areas. The potentially recoverable risked best estimate<br />
prospective resources by assessment area are provided in Table 9.<br />
9 Future Work<br />
The reserves <strong>and</strong> resources estimates provided in this report are based on new probabilistic techniques,<br />
<strong>and</strong> will be changed as new information becomes available. Future work will include<br />
• a comprehensive geological assessment of the <strong>Duvernay</strong> Innisfail play,<br />
• direct estimations of time to end of linear flow as an input for probabilistic declines,<br />
• full probabilistic declines as inputs for the time-series simulation, <strong>and</strong><br />
• revised methods for determining the chance of commerciality for contingent <strong>and</strong> prospective<br />
resources.<br />
Table 9. Prospective resources (best estimate) by assessment area, effective January 1, 2016 *<br />
Oil Gas Condensate BOE<br />
(MMbbl) (Bcf) (MMbbl) (MMboe)<br />
Kaybob 99 1 310 168 486<br />
Edson-Willesden Green 38 1 527 30 322<br />
Innisfail 50 37 0 56<br />
Total <strong>Duvernay</strong> 186 2 873 198 864<br />
* A commercial risk factor of 50% was applied.<br />
<strong>Duvernay</strong> <strong>Reserves</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> <strong>Report</strong> (December 2016) 41
Change language