Duvernay Reserves and Resources Report

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Alberta Energy Regulator 450 CGR (bbl/MMcf) 400 350 300 250 200 150 P10 P50 P90 100 50 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Number of wells Figure 25. Kaybob aggregated CGR versus well count 5.3.3 Oil Reserves Since there was not a significant sample of oil wells within the oil region to use as an input distribution to the Monte Carlo simulation, 90% of the mean of the P90 and P50 oil EUR per well distributions were assigned to the undeveloped oil locations for each respective assessment area in order to capture uncertainty. 6 Reserves Results Duvernay reserves were estimated for oil, gas, and condensate by assessment area. Total reserves were determined by summing the results from each assessment area. 6.1 Total Duvernay Reserves Total remaining proved reserves are 354 MMboe and proved plus probable reserves are 395 MMboe. The total initial and remaining proved and proved plus probable reserves are provided in Table 4. Table 4 provides recoverable reserve estimates for the total Duvernay resource. Although probabilistic techniques were used to account for the large range of technical uncertainty associated with these estimates, uncertainty remains associated with geological and reservoir engineering constraints, recovery efficiencies, and additional economic factors. The combination of these factors with other social and environmental considerations, will ultimately determine the true growth potential of this resource. The spatial distributions of P50 gas EUR and P50 CGR cum have been provided as Figure 26 and Figure 27, respectively. 30 Duvernay Reserves and Resources Report (December 2016)
Alberta Energy Regulator Figure 26. Duvernay P50 gas EUR Duvernay Reserves and Resources Report (December 2016) 31
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