Duvernay Reserves and Resources Report

Alberta Energy Regulator
Given the current low commodity price environment, undeveloped locations were only assigned to future
potential locations directly offsetting existing producers within the core liquids-rich regions of each
assessment area. Undeveloped reserves were not assigned within the natural gas regions of the Kaybob or
Edson-Willesden Green assessment areas.
Undeveloped locations were reviewed to ensure they exist within the Duvernay resource extent and
that there were no obvious surface constraints that may potentially affect future development. These
assumptions ensure that undeveloped well locations are determined based on reservoir factors, economic
considerations, and the suitability of surface locations, which aligns with the core principles outlined in
the COGEH and SPEE (2010) evaluation guidelines.
5.3.1 Gas Reserves
Gas reserves were assigned to each of the 272 undeveloped locations in the Kaybob assessment area and
the 80 undeveloped locations in Edson-Willesden Green assessment area using aggregated P90 and P50
EURs derived from the Monte Carlo simulation. Figure 22 outlines the input EUR distribution used to
determine gas reserves for wells within the condensate region of the Kaybob assessment area.
The Monte Carlo simulation was run for 100 000 iterations, and the resulting distribution for the
272 undeveloped gas locations in the Kaybob assessment area is outlined in Figure 23.
Total proved and proved plus probable undeveloped gas reserves were determined by multiplying the
total number of undeveloped well locations in the Kaybob assessment area (272) by the aggregated P90
550
500
496
Number of locations (undeveloped)
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
360
272
88
Kaybob
Condensate
Oil
120
80
40
Edson-Willesden Green
16
Innisfail
352
144
Total
Figure 21. Undeveloped locations by assessment area
Assessment area
Duvernay Reserves and Resources Report (December 2016) 27