Duvernay Reserves and Resources Report

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Alberta Energy Regulator analysis. Other production data that are not suitable for further analysis may be identified by points that do not clearly fall onto the initial established trend of the data, as identified in Figure 10. If there is a change in the slope of the data, it may indicate a change to the operating conditions or a transition to a second linear flow regime. If there is an upwards curvature of the data in the later life of the well, the trend may be indicative of a transition to boundary-dominated flow. Any other points that do not follow the general trend of the data may be excluded from any further analysis. The validated data points were then assessed using the log rate versus log MBT plot. Data quality checks were performed for all MBT data points to ensure that trends were increasing over time and that any anomalous increases or obvious outliers were excluded from further analysis. A negative half (−0.5) slope on the MBT plot indicates linear flow (Lee, 2015). Data points are further validated using this plot by determining whether or not the early time data falls within the linear slope trend. This is illustrated in Figure 11. Any data that occurs before the negative half slope trend emerges is believed to be associated with initial wellbore clean up and is excluded from further analysis. In some instances, no identifiable negative half slope trend can be seen, which may be due to operator constraints on the well or data quality issues. In these cases, these trends could not be further validated without consideration of flowing pressure data. Late time data can also be analyzed using the MBT plot, based on a negative-one (−1) slope trend (Lee, 2015). If it is possible to fit a reasonable negative one slope to sufficient data, the well may have entered boundary-dominated flow (BDF). Based on the wells evaluated for this report, no discernible negative one slope trends were observed, which indicates that the wells reviewed to date have not yet reached BDF. It is anticipated that the sooner a well reaches BDF, the lower the estimated ultimate recoverable (EUR) for that well will be. Some of the major considerations affecting the time that it takes for a well to reach BDF include well spacing, fracture spacing, fracture propagation, fracture permeability, and matrix permeability. Data points identified as being valid linear flow points are refined until a match between the square root time and MBT plots is made. As wells were evaluated using this process, it was observed that in most instances, it was necessary to weight the validated points on the square root time plot slightly higher than the MBT plot. Two additional plots were considered for linear flow diagnostics: • the Yu plot ln q 0 q vs log t where q 0 is defined as peak rate (Mcf/d; Yu, Lee, Miocevic, Li, & Harris, 2013) and and q is Mcf/d • the Duong plot log q/Q vs log t (Duong, 2010), where Q is Mcf and q is Mcf/d 16 Duvernay Reserves and Resources Report (December 2016)
Alberta Energy Regulator 1.2 Reciprocal operating gas rate (1/Mcfd) 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Early time data points can be removed from further analysis. UWI: 00/13-03-060-19W5/0 0.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 Square root time (days ½ ) Figure 10. Flow regime diagnostics: square root time plot 10 000 Operating gas rate (Mcfd) 1000 UWI: 00/13-03-060-19W5/0 m=-0.5 100 1 10 100 1000 10 000 Material balance time (days) Figure 11. Flow regime diagnostics: MBT plot Duvernay Reserves and Resources Report (December 2016) 17
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