ASG Business Jet Fleet Report 2015 EN

2015 Growth & 2016 Forecast
GREATER CHINA
The Greater China market has seen its business jet fleet growth rate decline for 3 consecutive years now – from a high
achieved in 2012 of almost 50% growth, to a mere 6.6% in 2015There are early signs from 2016 though that business
aviation activity levels are picking up:
• ASG’s market survey for its 1st quarter 2016 “Quarterly” magazine, saw 33% of the respondents from Greater China
report that their aircraft utilisation had increased versus the last quarter of 2015. Also those reporting their aircraft
utilisation decreased shrunk to 39% versus 49%.
• Business aviation activity levels at Shanghai’s 2 airports – Pudong & Hongqiao – are up over 30% versus a year ago.
January & February 2016 were the strongest start to a year ever with nearly 900 movements.
Examining the growth in Greater China further, it is essentially Hong Kong & Taiwan propping up the numbers in 2015
with 14% and 16% growth respectively. China’s growth itself was a mere 3.8% in 2015, down from 26% in 2013, and
Macau contracted by reducing its fleet by 1 aircraft.
The OEM with the highest fleet growth in Greater China in 2015 was Boeing with 36%, and the only OEM who grew more
in 2015 than in 2014 was Airbus with its fleet increasing 16%. Given these 2 growth rates, it is no surprise that the
‘corporate airliner’ size category was one of the highest growing segment in 2015 at 11%.
But the facts above are not necessarily good news for business jet sales in Greater China and in ASG’s opinion, don’t
project well for 2016 and on. Business jet fleet growth in Greater China in the past came from the ‘long range’ and ‘large’
size market segments, not the ‘corporate airliner’ one. In particular, growth used to come from the G550s, Falcon 7Xs,
Global 6000s and G450s being added to the fleet, not ACJs and BBJs. But in 2015, the markets for G550s and F7Xs
were stagnant, the G450 only added 5 aircraft, and although the Global 6000 had 7 net additions, it alonecould not
make up for the ground lost in other markets.
ASG sees a difficult year ahead in 2016 and no growth recovery in Greater China. The expectation is that business jet
fleet growth will continue to decline but be moderated somewhat by continued positive activity levels in the pre-owned
market. ASG is forecasting a high of 5.2% growth for 2016 but this could go even lower depending on China’s economic
performance.
600
60%
No. of Aircraft
490
500
+49.3%
466
50%
437
+41.5%
+42.6%
400 379
40%
315
300
+28.3%
+25.4%
30%
211
+20.3%
200
148
+15.3%
20%
100
65
118
92
+6.6%
+5.2%
10%
Growth Rate %
0 0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
ASIA PACIFIC REGION BUSINESS JET FLEET REPORT – YEAR END 2015 57