MR Microinsurance_2012_03_29.indd - International Labour ...

Microinsurance and climate change
As summarized in Table 4.1, signifi cant changes such as increases in the incidence
of droughts and cyclones appear imminent, which will have a huge impact
on local and regional risks. Th e high levels of scientifi c validation in the table are
noteworthy. Th us, “very likely” means that the level of scientifi c certainty is over
90 per cent. “Likely” means greater than 66 per cent and “More likely than not”
means greater than 50 per cent.
Table 4.1 Projections of extreme weather and climate events
Phenomenon and direction
Likelihood that trend Likelihood of a human Likelihood of future
of of trend trend
occurred in late 20th cen- contribution
trends based on projections
tury (typically post 1960)
for 21st century
Warmer and fewer cold days and
nights over most land areas
Very likely Likely Virtually certain
Warmer and and more frequent hot days
and nights over most land areas
Very likely Likely (nights) Virtually certain
Warm spells/heat waves. Frequency
increases over most land land areas
Likely More likely than not Very likely
Heavy precipitation events.
Frequency (or proportion of total
rainfall from heavy falls) increases
over most areas areas
Likely More likely than not Very likely
Area aff ected ected by by drought increases Likely in many regions
since 1970s
More likely than not Likely
Intense tropical cyclone activity
Likely in many regions More likely than not Likely
increases
since 1970
Increased incidence of extreme high
sea level (excludes tsunamis)
Likely More likely than not Likely
Source: Adapted from IPCC, 2007.
To date, meaningful evidence for countries, regions or even cities is available
only in individual cases. For example:
– intensifi cation of heat waves in the United States (Peterson et al., 2008), Australia
(Bureau of Meteorology Australia, 2011) and Europe (Robine et al., 2007);
– increase in extreme precipitation in the United States (US Climate Program,
2008) and in India (Munich Re, 2010).
So far, there has been limited quantitative analysis of the world’s poorer countries
because time series weather data are often not available. Descriptions of the
impact on climate are impressive nonetheless. Africa, for example, is a frequent
victim of drought. In Ethiopia alone, around 600 000 people died in the 1970s
and 1980s, and about seven million were exposed to long periods of drought.
Across the continent today, drought remains a major challenge. In 2011, Chad,
Malawi, Mozambique, the Sudan and the Horn of Africa struggled with extreme
drought, and UN scientists expect climate change to further exacerbate such
extremes.
85