MR Microinsurance_2012_03_29.indd - International Labour ...

84 Emerging issues
Th is chapter begins by reviewing some of the key data associated with climate
change to illustrate the emerging risks, particularly in developing countries where
microinsurance is taking root. It then considers the role of microinsurance in
weather-related risks, at the micro, meso and macro levels, as illustrated by numerous
examples from around the world. Th e third section summarizes the key operational
challenges including accessing and managing data, designing indices and managing
claims. Section 4.4 provides a series of recommendations for key stakeholders.
4.1 Th e impact of climate change
4.1.1 Evidence of climate change
According to the IPCC, temperature trends worldwide are pointing in the same
direction: up (IPCC, 2007):
– Temperatures have risen on all of the world’s continents in the last 100 years (see
Figure 4.1), in some cases signifi cantly.
– Human infl uence on climate change is largely demonstrable.
– Warming is particularly strong in high latitudes.
Global and continental temperature change change1 Figure 4.1 Global and continental temperature change 1
North America
Temperature anomaly (°C)
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1900 1950 2000
South America
Temperature anomaly (°C)
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1900 1950 2000
Source: IPCC Report: Climate Change, 2007.
Europe
Temperature anomaly (°C)
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1900 1950 2000
Africa
Temperature anomaly (°C)
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1900 1950 2000
Asia
Temperature anomaly (°C)
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1900 1950 2000
Australia
Temperature anomaly (°C)
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1900 1950 2000
decadal averages of observations
5–95% range for 19 simulations from 5 climate models using only natural forcings
5–95% range for 58 simulations from 14 climate models using natural and anthropogenic forcings
1 In this fi gure, the black lines show the actual change in temperatures on six continents. Th e grey space
depicts the range where temperatures should have been found based purely on natural changes, while the
green band shows the temperature ranges based on the impact of human and natural factors on the climate.