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The development of disposal technology has had and will have a twofold impact in the cost estimates.
In some cases improvements in technology have reduced the costs. An example of this is the
manufacturing process of copper canister. In other cases new research results or more stringent requirements
have led to more expensive solutions. This was the case when the tunnel backfill
method was changed. Although we already are at an advanced stage of designing the disposal process,
changes in cost estimates are still probable.
Table 4 is a summary of the evolution of cost estimates for our spent fuel disposal. The impact of
different factors cannot be separated as they overlap each other. The most important reason for increased
total costs is the introduction of the new unit in 2003. Olkiluoto 3 had an impact through
the increased amount of spent fuel and the prolonged operating time of disposal facility. The latter
was the major reason for the rise in the unit costs due to a stretched operation of disposal facility.
The first cost estimate made in 1980 may be interpreted as a kind of exercise that was based on generic
cost information of KBS-3 concept without detailed data of all cost components. The estimate
of 1994 was the first calculation including Loviisa fuel for which no technical plans had yet been
made. Since then the changes in unit costs have been moderate when excluding the introduction of
Olkiluoto 3 discussed above.
Table 4: Evolution of cost estimates for spent fuel disposal (December 2007)
4. International situation
Estimation Cost estimate Euro / kgU Euro cent /
year [Million Euro]
kWh
1980 650 540 0.27
1994 815 340 0.10
1999 1,020 400 0.12
2000 1,030 400 0.12
2003 3,000 530 0.15
2006 3,140 570 0.16
Most national high level waste management programmes are still at a preparatory stage. This means
that the technical plans drafted in such programmes are at a generic level and efforts for site selection
are still pending. The estimation of related costs cannot rely on detailed technical and site information
but have to be based on conceptual studies. Cost estimates, of course, will become more
accurate with developing requirements and technical plans. In our experience the costs tend to rise
when the development of technology advances and the implementation plans get more detailed.
The international development in high level waste management is characterised by continuous research
that produces new findings which often lead to new requirements to be considered in design.
The combination of developing requirements and the long lead times needed in the development of
technical solutions makes it difficult to fix the final design. This, however, is necessary in order to
produce reliable long-term cost information.
Although the waste management programmes and solutions are national there is an interest in every
country to compare costs for the purpose of benchmarking. This is, however, very difficult for several
reasons: the programmes are at various stages, their scopes and related waste volumes are dif-
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