Euradwaste '08 - EU Bookshop - Europa

pected. As to tunnel backfilling, there are many factors to be considered: backfill material, fabrication
of backfill blocks, installation of backfill.
We have now proceeded to an outline planning stage of the technical implementation of our repository.
It is absolutely necessary to compile a data base of the relevant cost drivers and estimate
the implementation costs of different alternatives simultaneously with design process. Also it is important
to collect and analyse the realised costs. In our case, we have the unique possibility to receive
cost information during the ongoing construction of ONKALO facility.
Economical and financial parameters are typically outside our control. These include the price of
raw materials, inflation, interest rate and return on investment.
The essential raw material in our concept is copper. Latest observations demonstrate that its price is
fluctuating rapidly and substantially. In these circumstances it is very difficult to predict the price of
copper even at the moment when the disposal starts, not to mention the whole operating period of
100 years.
The impact of inflation, interest rate and return on investment varies depending on the funding
scheme. In our case, the return on investment of the State Fund is bound to market interest rate. In
practice this means that profit of the Fund is dependent on the real interest rate.
The impact of parameter variations in the range of the total costs of 3,000 Million Euro is illustrated
in Table 3 for our concept and prerequisites. Relatively minor changes in parameters may cause a
change of the order of 100 Million Euro in the total costs.
Table 3: Impact of variation of different parameters in the total estimated costs (December 2007)
Parameter Change in parameter Impact
Amount of spent fuel 1 tU ~ 0.5 million Euro
Burnup of spent fuel 5 MWd/KgU 7–8 years cooling time
Operating time of disposal 1 year ~ 10 million Euro
facility
Price of copper 1 euro/kg ~ 35 million Euro
Real interest rate 1 %-point ~ 20 million Euro
3.4 Evolution of cost estimates
Spent fuel disposal costs have been estimated since the very beginning of the Finnish spent fuel
management programme. First calculations were made in the early 1980s, and they have been updated
regularly. There have been notable changes in the cost estimates based on the quantity of
spent fuel, timing of disposal and development in disposal technology.
The first estimate was based on the disposal of spent fuel from two Olkiluoto units. The next ones
considered two Olkiluoto and two Loviisa units with relatively short design operating life times (40
years). The newest calculations include Olkiluoto 3 and extended life times (50-60 years). The new
unit has an important effect in the operating time of the disposal facility, as the disposal of its spent
fuel can start more that 40 years later than the disposal of fuel from the old units.
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