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02 MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRENDS
SOLAR THERMAL HEATING
AND COOLING
SOLAR THERMAL HEATING/COOLING MARKETS
Solar thermal technology is used extensively in all regions of the
world to provide hot water, to heat and cool space, and to provide
higher-temperature heat for industrial processes. Global capacity
of glazed and unglazed solar thermal collectors continued to rise in
2015. The 18 largest markets in 2015 are spread across all continents
and represent 93–94% of total the year's global additions. 1 (p See
Figure 19 and Reference Table R8.) In 2015, their newly installed
capacity totalled an estimated 37.2 GW th (53.1 million m2), down
14% from the 43.4 GW th installed by these countries in 2014. 2
The continued slowdown in 2015 was due primarily to shrinking
markets in China and Europe. Despite the overall negative trend,
significant market growth was reported from Denmark (up 55%
over 2014), Turkey (10 %), Israel (9%), Mexico (8%) and Poland (7%). 3
Among the top 18 countries, vacuum tube collectors made up 76%
of new installations, flat plate collectors 20% and unglazed water
collectors (mostly for swimming pool heating) the remaining 4%. 4
These additions brought total global solar thermal capacity to
an estimated 435 GW th (622 million m2) at the end of 2015, up
from 409 GW th one year earlier. 5 (p See Figure 20.) There was
enough capacity by year’s end to provide approximately 357 TWh
(1,285 PJ) of heat annually. 6
The top countries for new installations in 2015 were China, Turkey,
Brazil, India and the United States , and the top five for cumulative
capacity at year-end were China, the United States, Germany,
Turkey and Brazil. 7 (p See Figure 21 and Reference Table R8.) Of
the top 18 installers, the leading countries for average market
growth between 2010 and 2015 were Denmark (34%), Poland
(14%) and Brazil (8%); the most significant market decline over
this period was seen in France (-17%), Austria (-14%) and Italy
(-14%). 8
China again was the largest market by far in 2015, with gross
additions of 30.45 GW th (43.5 million m2) – 21 times more
capacity than was added in second-placed Turkey. 9 At year’s
end, China’s cumulative capacity in operation was an estimated
309.4 GW th , or about 71% of the world’s total. 10 China’s market
contracted for the second consecutive year – falling 17%
in 2015, after an 18% drop in 2014 – due to the slowdown in
the construction industry and the weak national economy. 11
Vacuum tubes continued to dominate the Chinese market in
2015, accounting for 87% of added capacity; however, flat plate
collectors were again popular, especially for roof and façade
integration in urban areas. 12
Even though Turkey provides little policy support for solar
thermal technologies, annual installations were up 10% in 2015,
to an estimated 1.47 GW th (2.1 million m2). These new installations
were delivered by a strong supply chain that includes about 800
sales points and around 3,000 specialised installers. 13 The share
of vacuum tube collectors increased again in 2015, to 49% (44%
in 2014), up from almost zero 10 years earlier. 14
Brazil ranked third for new installations in 2015, with 982 MW th
(1.4 million m2) of glazed and unglazed collectors. 15 However,
deployment remained below expectations, with the market
down by 3% relative to 2014; this compares with Brazil’s high
average annual growth rate of 8% between 2010 and 2015. 16
Constraints on the market included the national economic crisis,
which reduced investment and purchasing power, and delay in
implementing the next phase of the social housing programme
Minha Casa Minha Vida. 17
India was fourth for new installations. Although there is high
uncertainty regarding the market volume in fiscal year 2015–2016,
preliminary estimates show that the market was stable compared
to the previous year, when 826 MW th (1.18 million m2) of capacity
was installed, and the share of vacuum tube collectors was
around 80%. 18 A temporary reduction in demand has resulted
from the suspension of India’s national grant scheme in 2014.
As of early 2016, India’s government and solar thermal industry
were discussing new support measures and, as a consequence,
a renewable heating obligation was being drafted that, if enacted,
would be the first of its kind worldwide. 19
The United States was the fifth biggest market for solar thermal
collectors in 2015 and the world’s largest market for unglazed
collectors for swimming pools, followed by Brazil (427 MW th )
and Australia (280 MW th ). 20 The unglazed segment accounted
for 87% of US cumulative solar thermal capacity of 17 GW th at
the end of 2014. 21 In the significantly smaller segment of glazed
collectors, a capacity of 119 MW th was added in 2015; this was
down 7% (after falling 19% in 2014) in response to low oil and
gas prices and an increased focus on solar PV, driven by strong
marketing efforts by solar PV system providers. 22
In the EU-28, the market volume dropped again in 2015 (down
6%), to an estimated 1.9 GW th (2.7 million m 2 ), following a 7%
decline in 2014. 23 The EU’s total installed capacity in operation
at the end of 2015 was approximately 33.3 GW th , representing
around 8% of the world’s total. 24
With the exception of Denmark and Poland, all major European
solar thermal markets contracted significantly in 2015: Austria’s
market shrank by 12% relative to 2014, and declines also were
seen in Germany (-10%), Spain (-6%), Italy (-15%) and France i
(-33%). 25 Following 19% market growth in 2014, Greece
maintained the same volume (189 MW th , 270,000 m2) in
2015, and its exports increased by another 7% (to 202 MW th ,
288,571 m 2 ) thanks to rising demand in the MENA region. 26
Low oil and gas prices contributed significantly to the shrinking
markets seen in much of Europe. In Germany, for example, low
fuel prices drove up sales of gas- and oil-condensing boilers (by
7% and 30%, respectively); by contrast, the solar thermal market
contracted by 10% to 100,500 systems, for a total of 564 MW th
(806,000 m2) added during the year. 27 This significant reduction
occurred despite an increase in Germany’s national incentive
programme in April 2015. 28 Additional challenges for Italy,
Spain and France included bureaucratic processes associated
with national subsidy schemes, a slowdown in the housing
industry and increased competition from other renewable heat
technologies. 29
i Metropolitan France only, which includes mainland France and nearby islands in the Atlantic Ocean, English Channel and the Mediterranean Sea (not
Overseas France).
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