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SOLAR PV INDUSTRY
The solar PV industry recovery further strengthened in 2015 due
to the continued emergence of new markets and to strong global
demand. Most top-tier companies were back on their feet in
2015, and strong demand and relative price stagnation helped to
consolidate the positions of leading companies. 100 It was another
challenging year in Europe, however, where shrinking markets
in most countries left many installers, distributors and others
struggling to stay afloat, and companies diversified risk by moving
downstream (e.g., into operation and maintenance, O&M) and
focusing on markets elsewhere. 101 Low module prices continued
to challenge many thin film companies and the concentrating
solar industries, which have struggled to compete. 102 International
trade disputes also continued. 103
Average module prices fell further in 2015, but less rapidly than
during the 2008–2012 period. 104 Spot prices for multicrystalline
silicon modules were down about 8% year-over-year to
USD 0.55/Watt and below. 105 The industry continued to
focus on soft costs (non-hardware) through optimisation and
improvements of equipment, including: reducing mechanical
mounting parts; using robotic technology for installation and
maintenance; developing “smart” modules that help optimise
output, and 1,500 volt modules that reduce transmission losses. 106
Soft costs continued their decline, due also to improved module
efficiency and to an increase in average system size. 107 Soft costs
still differed significantly depending on project location and
scale: for example, they were higher in the United States than in
Australia, China, Germany or even Japan. 108
Chinese companies, including Trina, JinkoSolar, JA Solar, Yingli,
SFCE (formerly Suntech) and ReneSolar; other top manufacturers
included Canadian Solar (Canada), Hanwha Q-Cells (Republic of
Korea), First Solar and Sunpower Corp. (both United States). 120
There are also rising numbers of manufacturers that shipped
around 1 GW each during 2015. 121
To meet growing demand and better serve new markets (in some
cases driven by domestic content laws), and to avoid import tariffs
in some countries, manufacturers increased production capacity
around the world, particularly for module assembly. 122 New
module manufacturing facilities began operation during 2015
in several countries (including Algeria, Brazil, Egypt, Iran, South
Africa and Thailand), while expansion plans were announced or
under way in several others (including China, Germany, India,
Japan, Saudi Arabia and the United States). 123 By year’s end,
according to company announcements, top manufacturers
were constructing almost 7 GW of new factory capacity, aiming
to expand in-house to reduce the need for outsourcing and to
crowd out smaller competitors. 124
Record low bids in tenders show that solar PV is competitive – or
expected to be when projects are built – in several locations. 109
Brazil, Chile, India, Jordan, Mexico, Peru and the United Arab
Emirates all saw very low bids for unsubsidised solar PV in
tenders in 2015 and early 2016, including Dubai’s contract to
ACWA Power (USD 58.5/MWh) in early 2015, and winning bids in
Peru (the lowest was under USD 48/MWh) and Mexico (average
of USD 45/MWh) in early 2016. 110 The year also brought record
lows in Germany, with contracts signed for under USD 87/MWh
(EUR 80/MWh), and PPAs for utility-scale solar in the United
States in the range of USD 35–60/MWh (including the national
tax credit). 111 Distributed rooftop solar PV remains more expensive
but has followed similar price trajectories, and is competitive with
retail prices in many locations. 112
Global production of crystalline silicon cells and modules rose in
2015. Mono-crystalline cells and modules continued to gain share
(about 25% in 2015) from multi-crystalline cells during the year. 113
Estimates of cell and module production, as well as of production
capacity, vary widely; increasing outsourcing and rebranding
render the counting of production and shipments more complex
every year. 114 Preliminary estimates of 2015 production capacity
exceeded 60 GW for cells, and ranged from about 63 GW to
69 GW for modules. 115 Thin film production increased by an
estimated 13%, accounting for 8% of total global PV production
(down from 10% in 2014). 116
China has dominated global shipments since 2009. 117 By 2015,
Asia accounted for 87% of global module production, with China
producing about two-thirds of the world total. 118 Europe’s share
continued to fall, to about 6% in 2015, and the US share remained
at 2%. 119 Among the leading module manufacturers were several
Consolidation continued in 2015, but there were far fewer
victims than in the high period of 2011–2012. Many solar product
manufacturers in China had low profit margins, too much
production capacity and significant debt. 125 Tianwei (China)
defaulted on an interest payment for a domestic bond and then
collapsed, Yingli required a government bailout, and Hanergy
came under investigation by Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures
Commission. 126 Power production curtailment and delay of
subsidy payments forced some project developers in China to
sell projects and halt further development. 127
In the United States and Europe, a handful of companies –
including manufacturers of modules, trackers and microinverters
– closed, became insolvent or were acquired in less-than-positive
circumstances. 128 SunEdison’s (United States) reversal of fortune,
due largely to large acquisitions that increased debt and to a steep
decline in the value of two yieldcos (see below), was the year’s
biggest loss, and the company filed for bankruptcy in April 2016. 129
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