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ENDNOTES 02 MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRENDS - WIND POWER WIND POWER 1 Figure of 22% and capacity data based on the following: global additions in 2015 were 63,792 MW for a year-end total of 433,119 MW, from FTI Consulting, Global Wind Market Update—Demand & Supply 2015 (London: 2016), Demand-Side Analysis, p. iv; additions were 63,467 MW for a total of 432,883 MW, from Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC), Global Wind Report: Annual Market Update 2015 (Brussels: April 2016), p. 11, http://www. gwec.net/wp-content/uploads/vip/GWEC-Global-Wind-2015- Report_April-2016_19_04.pdf; additions were 62,732.3 MW for a global total of 432,560.4 MW, from EurObserv’ER, Wind Energy Barometer (Paris: February 2016), p. 3, www.eurobserv-er.org/ wind-energy-barometer-2016/; additions were 64,164.2 MW for a total of 435,465.1 MW, from World Wind Energy Association (WWEA), World Wind Energy Report 2015 (Bonn: May 2016); and net additions were 62,937 MW for a total of 431,948 MW, from International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2016 (Abu Dhabi: April 2016), http://www.irena. org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/IRENA_RE_Capacity_ Statistics_2016.pdf. Figure 23 based on historical data from GWEC, op. cit. this note, and from WWEA, op. cit. this note; data for 2015 from sources in this note. 2 Based on data from GWEC, “Global Wind Statistics 2015” (Brussels: February 2016), http://www.gwec.net/wp-content/ uploads/vip/GWEC-PRstats-2015_LR.pdf. 3 GWEC, op. cit. note 1. Countries with more than 1 GW included 17 countries in Europe, 4 in Asia-Pacific, 4 in the Americas (Brazil, Canada, United States, Mexico) and 1 in Africa (South Africa), from idem, p. 9. Note that 112 countries/regions had wind installations as of end-2015, per Jean-Daniel Pitteloud, WWEA, personal communication with REN21, 8 April 2016. 4 Leading source of new capacity from FTI Consulting, op. cit. note 1, Wind Farm Owner-Operators, p. 1; generation from Fatih Birol, Executive Director, International Energy Agency (IEA), Foreword in GWEC, op. cit. note 1, p. 6. The increase in wind generation during 2015 was equal to almost half of global electricity growth, from Birol, op. cit. this note. 5 GWEC, op. cit. note 1, p. 11; WWEA, op. cit. note 1. 6 GWEC, op. cit. note 1, p. 11. Figure 24 based on country-specific data and sources provided throughout this section. 7 GWEC, op. cit. note 1; WWEA, op. cit. note 1; Steve Sawyer, GWEC, personal communication with REN21, 14 January 2016; Stefan Gsänger, WWEA, personal communication with REN21, 3 December 2015; WWEA, “Special: World Wind Energy Report 2014,” Quarterly Bulletin, Special Issue 2015, http://www. wwindea.org/wwea-bulletin-special-issue-2015/. 8 GWEC, op. cit. note 1; Djordje Daskalovic, “Energy min says Serbia’s first wind park to go on stream by end-2015,” SeeNews Renewables, 14 October 2015, http://renewables.seenews.com/ news/energy-min-says-serbias-first-wind-park-to-go-on-streamby-end-2015-497292; Serbia added 9.9 MW for a total of the same, from European Wind Energy Agency (EWEA), Wind in Power: 2015 European Statistics (Brussels: February 2016), p. 4; Samoa installed 0.6 MW in 2015, from GWEC, op. cit. note 1, p. 16, http://www.gwec.net/wp-content/uploads/vip/GWEC-Global- Wind-2015-Report_April-2016_19_04.pdf; Mauritius joined the list in early 2016, from “Mauritius wind farm soon to be operational,” ESI Africa, 17 December 2015, http://www.esi-africa.com/news/ mauritius-wind-farm-soon-to-be-operational/. 9 The top five in 2015 were estimated to be Denmark (898.1 W per person), Sweden (621.4 W), Germany (558.1 W), Ireland (539.3 W) and Spain (494.6 W); Portugal was not far behind with 488.3 W per person, and the island of Bonaire (with 10.8 MW of capacity) had 620.4 W per person, all per WWEA, op. cit. note 1. The top five in 2014 were Denmark (876.8 W per person), Sweden (557.9 W), Germany (499.6 W), Spain (481.5 W) and Ireland (470.1 W), followed by Portugal (454.4 W), Canada (278.3 W), Austria (254.8 W), Estonia (240.6 W) and the United States (206.2 W), from WWEA, World Wind Energy Report 2014 (Bonn: 2015). 10 Policy uncertainty from EWEA, op. cit. note 8, p. 10, and from GWEC, op. cit. note 1. Other drivers from GWEC, op. cit. note 1, p. 4, and from WWEA, “Worldwide wind market booming like never before: wind capacity over 392 gigawatt,” press release (Bonn: 9 September 2015), http://www.wwindea.org/hyr2015/. 11 Sawyer, op. cit. note 7; GWEC, op. cit. note 1. 12 Eighth consecutive year based on GWEC, Global Wind Report 2014: Annual Market Update (Brussels: April 2015), p. 8, http:// www.gwec.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/GWEC_Global_ Wind_2014_Report_LR.pdf, and on GWEC, op. cit. note 1; shares based on idem., both sources, and on FTI Consulting, op. cit. note 1. North America includes the United States and Canada. By contrast, the EU accounted for 23% of the global market in 2014 and 32% in 2013, and North America accounted for 13% in 2014 and less than 8% in 2013, from GWEC, both sources. 13 FTI Consulting, op. cit. note 1, Demand-Side Analysis, p. 1. 14 Addition of 30,753 MW for a total of 145,362 MW, from Chinese Wind Energy Association (CWEA), cited in GWEC, op. cit. note 1, and in FTI Consulting, op. cit. note 1, Demand-Side Analysis, p. 25. China added 32,970 MW for total of 148,000 MW, from WWEA, op. cit. note 1. 15 Based on additions of 32,970 MW for total of 129,340 MW, from China National Energy Board, cited in China National Energy Administration (CNEA), “Energy Board: 2015 national wind power industry to continue to maintain strong growth momentum,” 4 February 2016, www.nea.gov.cn/2016-02/04/c_135073627. htm (using Google Translate); additions of 33,900 MW for total of 129,710 MW, from China Electricity Council, provided by Shi Pengfei, CWEA, personal communication with REN21, 15 March 2016. Differences in statistics result, at least in part, from differences in what is counted and when. Note that most of the capacity added in 2015 was feeding the grid by year’s end. The difference in statistics among Chinese organisations and agencies is explained by the fact that they count different things: installed capacity refers to capacity that is constructed and usually has wires carrying electricity from the turbines to a substation; capacity qualifies as grid-connected, i.e., included in China Electricity Council statistics, once certification is granted and operators begin receiving the FIT premium payment, which can take weeks or even months. It is no longer the case that thousands of turbines stand idle awaiting connection in China because projects must be permitted in order to start construction; however, there is still often a several month lag from when turbines are wire-connected to the substation until the process of certification and payment of FIT premium is complete. Steve Sawyer, GWEC, personal communication with REN21, 30 March 2016. 16 Steve Sawyer, GWEC, personal communication with REN21, 14 January and 10 February 2016. 17 GWEC, “China wind power blows past EU,” press release (Washington, DC/Beijing/Tokyo/Delhi/Cape Town/Mexico City: 10 February 2016), http://www.gwec.net/china-wind-powerblows-past-eu-global-wind-statistics-release/. Energy security was a driver, but not as important as climate change, per Steve Sawyer, GWEC, personal communication with REN21, 21 October 2015. 18 Top provinces and shares based on data from China National Energy Board, cited by CNEA, “2015 Wind Power Industry Development,” 2 February 2016, www.nea.gov.cn/2016- 02/02/c_135066586.htm (using Google Translate). 19 GWEC, op. cit. note 8. 20 As of early February, estimated average curtailment over the year 2015 was 15%, from China National Energy Board, op. cit. note 18, and from GWEC, op. cit. note 1, pp. 9, 36; curtailment averaged 20% during 2015, from Frank Haugwitz, Asia Europe Clean Energy (Solar) Advisory Co. Ltd. (AECEA), personal communication with REN21, 11 April 2016, from David Stanway, “China wasted 20 percent of wind power generation in 2015,” Reuters, 17 March 2016, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-chinapower-renewables-idUSKCN0WJ124, and from “Lots of wind power wasted: energy administration,” Xinhua, 17 March 2016, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-03/17/c_135198759. htm. Note that curtailment rates were 8% in 2014 and 17% in 2012, from China National Energy Board, cited by CNEA, “Wind Power Industry Monitoring,” 12 February 2015, http://www.nea. gov.cn/2015-02/12/c_133989991.htm (using Google Translate). It should be taken into account that 2014 was a low wind speed year compared to average, from Shi Pengfei, CWEA, personal communication with REN21, 1 April 2015. 21 Sue-Lin Wong and Charlie Zhu, “Chinese wind earnings under pressure with fifth of farms idle,” Reuters, 17 May 2015, http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/ idAFL3N0Y24DM20150517. 22 Wind generation and share of output from China National 232
ENDNOTES 02 MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRENDS - WIND POWER Energy Board, op. cit. note 18. This is up from 156.3 GWh in 2014, from China Electricity Council, available in Chinese at http://www.cec.org.cn/guihuayutongji/gongxufenxi/ dianliyunxingjiankuang/2015-02-02/133565.html, provided by Liming Qiao, GWEC, personal communication with REN21, 16 April 2015; 2.8% of output in 2014 from China Renewable Energy Engineering Institute (CREEI), Wind Power Statistical Evaluation Report of China (in Chinese), 14 April 2015, provided by Shi, op. cit. note 15. China’s wind-generated electricity in 2012 was just over 100 TWh, from GWEC, op. cit. note 1, p. 9. 23 Based on 22,465.03 MW at the end of 2014, from Indian Ministry of New and Renewable Resources (MNRE), “Physical progress (achievements) up to the month of December 2015,” www.mnre. gov.in/mission-and-vision-2/achievements, viewed 21 January 2015, and on 25,088.19 MW at end-2015, from MNRE, idem, viewed 1 February 2016. Additions of 2,623 MW for a year-end total of 25,088 MW, from GWEC, op. cit. note 1, p. 11, and 2015 added capacity was 2,621 MW for a total of 25,088 MW, from FTI Consulting, op. cit. note 1, Demand-Side Analysis, pp. 7, 25. Note that 2,294 MW was added for a total of 24,759 MW, from WWEA, op. cit. note 1. 24 “India adding 2800 MW of wind capacity in 2015,” GWEC Newsletter, January 2016, http://www.gwec.net/india-adding- 2800-mw-of-wind-capacity-in-2015/; Steve Sawyer, GWEC, personal communication with REN21, 10 February 2016. 25 Japan added 245 MW for a total of 3,038 MW, the Republic of Korea added 225 MW for a total of 835 MW, and all of Asia added 33,859 MW for a total of 175,831 MW, all from GWEC, op. cit. note 1, p. 11. Japan added 244.6 MW for a total of 3,038.2 MW, and the Republic of Korea added 225 MW for a total of 834 MW, both from WWEA, op. cit. note 1. All of Asia added 33,606 MW in 2015 for a total of 175,573 MW, from EurObserv’ER, op. cit. note 1. Asia added a net of 33,882 MW (including additions also in Taipei (China), Kazakhstan, the Philippines and Vietnam, from IRENA, Renewable Capacity Statistics 2016 (Abu Dhabi: April 2016), http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/ IRENA_RE_Capacity_Statistics_2016.pdf. Note that Vietnam is not included here, but by some reports the country added capacity in 2015. See endnotes for offshore wind developments. Capacity also was added in the Philippines, Taipei (China) and Thailand, per FTI Consulting, op. cit. note 1, Demand-Side Analysis, p. 3. 26 Projects from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), “China approves 34 GW of new wind projects,” Week in Review, 19 May 2015, http://about.bnef.com/landing-pages/china-approves- 34gw-new-wind-projects/. No new capacity came online in 2015, per GWEC, op. cit. 1, p. 11, and IRENA, op. cit. note 1. Note, however, that an estimated 80 MW was installed in Pakistan during 2015, per FTI Consulting, op. cit. note 1, Demand-Side Analysis, p. 3. 27 The United States added 8,598 MW for a total of 73,992 MW, from American Wind Energy Association (AWEA), “US Wind Industry 2015 Annual Market Update: US Wind Power Capacity and Generation Growth in 2015” (Washington, DC: April 2016), http:// awea.files.cms-plus.com/Annual%20Report%20Capacity%20 and%20Generation%202015.pdf. Rankings based on data in this section. The United States added a net of 8,346.4 MW in 2015 for a total of 72,577.9 MW, from US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Electric Power Monthly with Data for December 2015 (Washington, DC: US Department of Energy (DOE), February 2016), Table 6.1., p. 129, http://www.eia.gov/ electricity/monthly/pdf/epm.pdf; wind power generated 190.927 TWh of electricity in 2015, from EIA, idem, Table 1.1.A., p. 15, http:// www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/pdf/epm.pdf. Note that EIA data do not include facilities smaller than 1 MW and do not include off-grid capacity. 28 Based on figure of 41% from AWEA, op. cit. note 27. 29 Fourth quarter from AWEA, “American wind power posts second strongest quarter ever, readies to help states meet Clean Power Plan affordably,” press release (Washington, DC: 27 January 2016), http://www.awea.org/MediaCenter/pressrelease. aspx?ItemNumber=8325; increase of 77% from AWEA, “US Wind Industry Fourth Quarter 2015 Market Report” (Washington, DC: 27 January 2015), p. 1, http://awea.files.cms-plus.com/ FileDownloads/pdfs/4Q2015%20AWEA%20Market%20 Report%20Public%20Version.pdf; drivers from BNEF and Business Council for Sustainable Energy (BCSE), 2016 Sustainable Energy in America Factbook (London and Washington, DC: 2016), p. 60, http://www.bcse.org/wp-content/uploads/BCSE-2016- Sustainable-Energy-in-America-Factbook.pdf. 30 AWEA, “US wind industry leaders praise multi-year extension of tax credits,” press release (Washington, DC: 18 December 2015), http://www.awea.org/MediaCenter/pressrelease. aspx?ItemNumber=8254. 31 Texas added 1,307 MW, followed by Oklahoma (853 MW), Kansas (599 MW) and Iowa (502 MW), from AWEA, “US Wind Industry Fourth Quarter 2015 Market Report,” op. cit. note 29. 32 AWEA, “American wind power posts second strongest quarter ever…,” op. cit. note 29. Going beyond state mandates (Renewable Portfolio Standards) includes utilities in, for example, Colorado and Alabama, from David Labrador, “US wind power demand: corporations take the lead,” RMI Outlet, 22 February 2016, http://blog.rmi.org/blog_2016_02_22_us_wind_power_ demand_corporations_take_the_lead. At the same time, a growing number of utilities have met state RPS mandates and are slowing their new contracts, from Brian Eckhouse, “Google’s clean-power deal shows wind farms finding new customers,” Bloomberg, 5 December 2015, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/ articles/2015-12-04/google-clean-power-deal-shows-windfarms-finding-new-customers. 33 Labrador, op. cit. note 32. Corporate procurement in the United States continues to accelerate, from AWEA, “American wind power posts second strongest quarter ever…,” op. cit. note 29. An estimated 52% of the megawatts contracted through PPAs in 2015 (2,074 MW wind power) were signed by non-utility purchasers (including corporations, universities, cities) to reduce emissions and secure low-cost, fixed price electricity, from AWEA, “US Wind Industry 2015 Annual Market Update: Non-utility buyers increase wind demand in 2015” (Washington, DC: April 2015), http://awea.files.cms-plus.com/Annual%20Report%20 Non-Utility%20Purchasers%202015.pdf. Cost-competitiveness from Eckhouse, op. cit. note 32. 34 AWEA, “American wind power posts second strongest quarter ever…,” op. cit. note 29. 35 Canada added 1,506 MW for a total of 11,205 MW, from Canadian Wind Energy Association (CanWEA), “Wind energy continues rapid growth in Canada in 2015,” press release (Ottawa: 12 January 2016), http://canwea.ca/ wind-energy-continues-rapid-growth-in-canada-in-2015/. 36 Ibid. Growth slowed based on GSR 2015 and FTI Consulting, op. cit. note 1, Demand-Side Analysis, p. iv. 37 Ontario added 871 MW (for a total of 4,361 MW), followed by Québec (added 397 MW) and Nova Scotia (added 186 MW), from CanWEA, op. cit. note 35. 38 CanWEA, op. cit. note 35. As of early 2016, Prince Edward Island got an estimated 40% of its electricity supply from wind energy, and Nova Scotia about 10%, from idem. 39 EWEA, op. cit. note 8, pp. 4, 6; GWEC, op. cit. note 1. The EU added 12,518.8 MW for a total of 141,718.2 MW, from EurObserv’ER, op. cit. note 1. 40 EWEA, op. cit. note 8, pp. 4, 5. 41 Ibid., pp. 4, 6. The EU added an estimated 6,581 MW of new fossil capacity in 2015 (including 4,714 MW of coal and 1,867 MW of natural gas; plus 100 MW of nuclear), but the region decommissioned about 15,587 MW of fossil capacity (including 8,051 MW of coal, 4,254 MW of natural gas and 3,282 MW of fuel oil, plus 1,825 MW of nuclear), from EWEA, op. cit. note 8, p. 6. 42 EWEA, op. cit. note 8, p. 8. 43 GWEC, op. cit. note 1, pp. 13, 15. 44 Preliminary statistics from Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Energie (BMWi), Erneuerbare Energien in Deutschland, Daten zur Entwicklung im Jahr 2015 (Berlin: February 2016), http:// www.erneuerbare-energien.de/EE/Redaktion/DE/Downloads/ erneuerbare-energien-in-zahlen-2015.pdf, and from BMWi, “Development of Renewable Energy Sources in Germany 2015,” statistical data from the Working Group on Renewable Energy-Statistics (AGEE-Stat), as at February 2016, http:// www.erneuerbare-energien.de/EE/Redaktion/DE/Downloads/ development-of-renewable-energy-sources-in-germany-2015. pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=8. Considering decommissioned onshore capacity of 195 MW, Germany’s capacity increased by a net of 5.8 GW for a year-end total of 44.9 GW, from Deutsche WindGuard, Status of Land-Based Wind Energy Development in 02 RENEWABLES 2016 · GLOBAL STATUS REPORT 233
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RENEWABLES 2016 GLOBAL STATUS REPOR
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GSR 2016 TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword
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Figures Figure 1. Estimated Renewab
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FOREWORD The year 2015 was an extra
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RENEWABLES GLOBAL STATUS REPORT (GS
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Note: Some individuals have contrib
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Sweden Robert Fischer (University o
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REVIEWERS AND OTHER CONTRIBUTORS Sh
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY GLOBAL OVERVIEW A
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RENEWABLE ENERGY INDICATORS 2015 IN
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TOP FIVE COUNTRIES Annual investmen
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SOLAR PV: Record deployment and rap
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INVESTMENT FLOWS A new record high;
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01 GLOBAL OVERVIEW The year 2015 wa
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markets, policy changes and uncerta
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Sidebar 1. Regional Spotlight: Sout
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Figure 4. Renewable Power Capacitie
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also are growing, as are wind turbi
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n Latin America: Biomass-based heat
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n Africa: Although biofuel producti
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JOBS IN RENEWABLE ENERGY Table 1. E
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02 MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRENDS BIOMA
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BIOMASS ENERGY Figure 7. Shares of
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China, the third largest ethanol pr
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concluded long-term offtake agreeme
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GEOTHERMAL POWER Figure XX. Figure
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GEOTHERMAL INDUSTRY Low natural gas
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HYDROPOWER Figure 12. Hydropower Gl
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OCEAN ENERGY OCEAN ENERGY MARKETS O
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Country of Spain, the first commerc
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7.3 GW was installed, for a total o
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Figure 16. Solar PV Capacity and Ad
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SOLAR PV INDUSTRY The solar PV indu
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Sharp - in the storage market by in
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CSP INDUSTRY It was a watershed yea
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SOLAR THERMAL HEATING AND COOLING F
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SOLAR THERMAL HEATING/COOLING INDUS
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WIND POWER WIND POWER MARKETS Wind
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WIND POWER Figure 23. Wind Power Gl
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WIND POWER INDUSTRY The wind power
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Sidebar 3. Renewable Power Technolo
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Investment Cost R USD min max wa Ca
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Investment Cost R USD min max wa Ca
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03 DISTRIBUTED RENEWABLE ENERGY FOR
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through renewables-based mini-grids
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India Tanzania Kenya Ethiopia 661,6
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INVESTMENT AND FINANCING The year 2
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The market for PAYG solar - micro-p
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in 2015. In 2014, GACC projected th
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04 INVESTMENT FLOWS Global new inve
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INVESTMENT BY ECONOMY The shift in
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INVESTMENT BY TECHNOLOGY Solar powe
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SOURCES OF INVESTMENT Debt makes up
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05 POLICY LANDSCAPE Nearly all coun
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spearheaded by UNIDO, is designed t
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Specific commitments to renewable h
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Figure 39. Countries with Renewable
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Three US states took steps to expan
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volume requirements that were an in
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Table 4. Renewable Energy Support P
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Table 4. Renewable Energy Support P
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06 ENERGY EFFICIENCY GLOBAL OVERVIE
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MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRENDS BUILDING
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States, new dishwashers use 40% les
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1990 and 2008, design-related effic
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The Green Climate Fund included in
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appliances, and the country also ha
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07 FEATURE: COMMUNITY RENEWABLE ENE
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ORGANISATIONAL STRUCTURES Organisat
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e a successful means for addressing
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Table R2. Renewable Electric Power
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Table R4. Geothermal Power Global C
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Table R6. Solar PV Global Capacity
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Table R8. Solar Water Heating Colle
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Table R10. Electricity Access by Re
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Table R10. Electricity Access by Re
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Table R11. Population Relying on Tr
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Table R12. Programmes Furthering En
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Table R12. Programmes Furthering En
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Table R13. Networks Furthering Ener
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Table R15. Share of Primary and Fin
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Table R15. Share of Primary and Fin
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Table R17. Share of Electricity Gen
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Table R17. Share of Electricity Gen
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Table R18. Renewable Energy Targets
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Table R19. Targets for Renewable Po
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Table R20. Cumulative Number 1 of C
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Table R21. Cumulative Number 1 of C
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Page 247 and 248: ENDNOTES 05 POLICY LANDSCAPE POLICY
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Page 269 and 270: GLOSSARY Vehicle fuel standards. Ru
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