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ENDNOTES 02 MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRENDS - SOLAR PV CSO & Head of Emerging Markets: Arturo Herrero,” Solar Plaza, 20 February 2015, http://www.solarplaza.com/article/an-indepth-interview-with-jinkosolars-cso-head-of; many Italian companies, for example, have turned to overseas markets, from Becquerel Institute and IEA PVPS, personal communication with REN21, 18 March 2016; shipments to all markets outside of Europe were on the rise by early 2014, from Shyam Mehta, “5 crucial solar manufacturing stats for 2014,” Greentech Media, 17 March 2014, http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/ Five-Crucial-Solar-Manufacturing-Stats-for-2014-GTM-Research. 102 See, for example, Fraunhofer ISE and NREL, op. cit. note 91; Oscar de la Rubia, Institute for Concentration Photovoltaics Systems, Spain, cited in “CPV’s golden opportunity in the MENA region,” Solar GCC Alliance, 11 February 2015, http://www.solargcc.com/ cpvs-golden-opportunity-in-the-mena-region/; Paula Mints, “Fifteen things to watch out for in 2016,” Renewable Energy World, 8 January 2016, http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/ articles/2016/01/fifteen-things-to-watch-out-for-in-2016.html. For CSP, see CSP section in this GSR. 103 See, for example: Justin Doom, “Canada imposes tariff on imported Chinese solar equipment,” Renewable Energy World, 9 March 2015, http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/ article/2015/03/canada-imposes-tariff-on-imported-chinesesolar-equipment; Tom Miles and David Lawder, “US wins WTO dispute against India’s solar rules,” Reuters, 25 February 2016, http://planetark.org/wen/74192; BNEF and Business Council for Sustainable Energy (BCSE), 2016 Sustainable Energy in America Factbook (London and Washington, DC: 2016), http://www. bcse.org/wp-content/uploads/BCSE-2016-Sustainable-Energyin-America-Factbook.pdf; Ilana Solomon and Ben Beachy, “The WTO just ruled against India’s booming solar program,” Huffington Post, 24 February 2016, http://www.huffingtonpost. com/ben-beachy/the-wto-just-ruled-agains_b_9307884.html. 104 Jason Deign, “Europe’s module import verdict to test price convergence with China,” PV Insider, 16 October 2015,” http:// analysis.pv-insider.com/europes-module-import-verdict-testprice-convergence-china. Module prices tend to be more global than soft costs; however, US module prices are largely driven by trade policy, including anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Chinese module suppliers, from SEIA and GTM Research, “US Solar Market Insight 2015 Q4” (Washington, DC: 9 March 2016), http://www.seia.org/research-resources/ solar-market-insight-2015-q4. 105 GTM Research, PV Pulse, April 2016. The cheapest offers were below USD 0.5/Wp, and probably as low as USD 0.44/Wp, per PV Insights, provided by Masson, op. cit. note 2. 106 Vince Font, “How innovations in BOS will keep solar affordable in a post-ITC world,” Renewable Energy World Magazine, November/ December 2015, pp. 26–31, http://www.renewableenergyworld. com/articles/print/volume-18/issue-110/features/solar/howinnovations-in-bos-will-keep-solar-affordable-in-a-post-itc-world. html. 107 Galen Barbose and Naïm Darghouth, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), “Tracking the Sun VIII: The Installed Price of Residential and Non-Residential Photovoltaic Systems in the United States,” Report Summary (Berkeley, CA: August 2015), https://emp.lbl.gov/sites/all/files/lbnl-188238%20presentation_0. pdf. Soft costs also include marketing and customer acquisition, system design, installation labor, and permitting and inspections, from idem. 108 Galen Barbose and Naïm Darghouth, Tracking the Sun VIII: The Installed Price of Residential and Non-Residential Photovoltaic Systems in the United States (Berkeley, CA: LBNL, August 2015), pp. 23–24, https://emp.lbl.gov/sites/all/files/lbnl-188238_2.pdf. Soft costs in Germany are well below those in Japan and the United States, from Masson, op. cit. note 2. Costs continue to be higher in Japan than many other countries, however; see, for example, Andy Colthorpe, “Japan’s government confirms plans for solar tender,” PV-Tech, 4 March 2016, http://www.pv-tech.org/ news/japans-government-speaks-about-utility-scale-pv-tendersexplains-thinking-b. 109 Masson, op. cit. note 2. 110 Brazil’s solar auctions contracted at around USD 80/MWh, from “Modules, large-scale PV see big price drop in 2010-2014,” PV Insider, 9 November 2015, http://analysis.pv-insider.com/ pv-module-prices-drop-80-below-2009-levels-czech-repreignites-home-user-market, and from Clover, op. cit. note 73; Chile had a tender in October 2015 in which three solar PV farms were offered for USD 65–68/MWh, compared to new coal at rates up to USD 85/MWh, from Deutsche Bank, cited in Beetz, op. cit. note 71; India from Anindya Upadhyay, “India’s largest solar power auction reflects further drop in solar energy costs,” Renewable Energy World, 4 August 2015, http://www. renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2015/08/india-s-largestsolar-power-auction-reflects-further-drop-in-solar-energy-costs. html; Jordan’s tender brought record-low tariffs, with the four lowest in the range of USD 61.3–76.7/MWh, from Tsagas, op. cit. note 78, and from “Modules, large-scale PV see big price drop in 2010-2014,” op. cit. this note. In Mexico, solar bids in March 2016 averaged USD 40.5/MWh, from Vanessa Dezem and Adam Williams, “Mexico first power auction awards 1,720 MW of wind, solar,” Renewable Energy World, 30 March 2016, http://www. renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2016/03/mexico-firstpower-auction-awards-1-720-mw-of-wind-solar.html; the lowest price bid in Mexico for solar was USD 35/MWh (v. USD 42/MWh for wind power), which some experts believe was to ensure a foothold in the market and expect prices to rise in future bidding rounds, from Steve Sawyer, Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC), personal communication with REN21, 6 April 2016. Peru awarded 185 MW of new solar PV contracts at record low prices for a country without financial incentives, including tax breaks; of the total, 144 MW was bid by Enel Green Power at USD 47.98/MWh, and another 40 MW was bid by Enersur at USD 48.50/MWh, from “Tremendously low 4.8¢/kWh solar price In Peru, unsubsidized,” op. cit. note 73, and from Masson, op. cit. note 2. Dubai, UAE’s tender was with the Dubai Electricity and Water Authority for what was then the lowest-cost unsubsidised electricity to date, just under USD 60/MWh, from “Modules, large-scale PV see big price drop in 2010-2014,” op. cit. this note, and from Middle East Solar Industry Association (MESIA), “Middle East to tender 2 GW; Masdar to build 200 MW in Jordan,” PV Insider, 2 February 2016, http://analysis.pv-insider.com/middle-east-tender-2-gw-masdarbuild-200-mw-jordan. Note that between the tender in Dubai and early 2016, Memorandums of Understanding were signed in Jordan and Saudi Arabia for PPAs as low as USD 50/MWh, from idem. It is important to be cautious about these figures because tenders can be considered successful only if projects are actually delivered. In some cases (e.g., UK), winners have clearly underbid and then have not been able to deliver, from Roesch, op. cit. note 92. 111 Germany from Roselund, op. cit. note 57; pilot tenders brought successful bids averaging EUR 0.092 per kWh in April 2015, EUR 0.085/kWh in August and as low as EUR 0.08/kWh in December 2015, from SolarPower Europe, op. cit. note 2, p. 18; United States from GTM Research and SEIA, op. cit. note 41, p. 11. See also: Roselund, op. cit. note 57; BNEF and BCSE, op. cit. note 103, pp. 55, 56; David Ferris, “Solar power crosses threshold, gets cheaper than natural gas,” Environment & Energy News, 21 August 2015, http://www.eenews.net/energywire/2015/08/21/ stories/1060023749; Herman K. Trabish, “Austin Energy gets record low solar bids at under 4 cents/kWh,” Utility Dive, 2 July 2015, http://www.utilitydive.com/news/austin-energy-getsrecord-low-solar-bids-at-under-4-centskwh/401642/. 112 Trajectories from US Department of Energy, Revolution…Now: The Future Arrives for Five Clean Energy Technologies – 2015 Update (Washington, DC: November 2015), http://energy.gov/sites/prod/ files/2015/11/f27/Revolution-Now-11132015.pdf; competitive from SolarPower Europe, Global Market Outlook for Solar Power: 2015- 2019, op. cit. note 1, p. 7. 113 Theologitis, op. cit. note 32. 114 Paula Mints, “Trying to understand PV shipment numbers: do the math,” Renewable Energy World, 22 March 2016, http:// www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2016/03/trying-tounderstanding-pv-shipment-numbers-do-the-math.html; Paula Mints, “The top ten PV manufacturers in 2014 and why this list can lack meaning,” Renewable Energy World, 12 February 2015, http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/ article/2015/02/the-top-ten-pv-manufacturers-in-2014-and-whythis-list-can-lack-meaning; Masson, op. cit. note 2. 115 Preliminary estimates of 62,227 MW of cell production capacity and 69,081 MW of module assembly capacity from Paula Mints, “2015 top ten PV cell manufacturers,” Renewable Energy World, 8 April 2016, http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/ articles/2016/04/2015-top-ten-pv-cell-manufacturers.html; estimates of 61.2 GW for cells and 63.1 GW for modules from GTM Research, op. cit. note 105. 218
ENDNOTES 02 MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRENDS - SOLAR PV 116 GTM Research, op. cit. note 105; 2014 from GTM Research, PV Pulse, March 2015. 117 Paula Mints, “Reality check: the changing world of PV manufacturing,” Renewable Energy World, 5 October 2011, http:// www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2011/10/ reality-check-the-changing-world-of-pv-manufacturing; Paula Mints, “The solar pricing struggle,” Renewable Energy World, 28 August 2013, http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/ article/2013/08/the-solar-pricing-struggle; Mints, op. cit. note 115. 118 GTM Research, op. cit. note 105; China accounted for 75% of global module production in 2015, per China PV Industry Association, provided by Haugwitz, op. cit. note 98; Asia accounted for 87% in 2014 and 85% in 2013, and China accounted for 64% both years, from GTM Research, op. cit. note 116; Asia accounted for 87% of global module assembly capacity in 2014, and China plus Taiwan accounted for 62%, from Mints, “The top ten PV manufacturers in 2014…,” op. cit. note 114. 119 Figures for 2015 from GTM Research, op. cit. note 105. Europe’s share fell from 8% in 2014, and 10% in 2013, from GTM Research, op. cit. note 116. 120 Based on preliminary data based on actual module shipments through September 2015 and guidance figures as well as detailed analysis of over 45 leading manufacturers’ expected shipments for the full year, from Mark Osborne, “Top 10 solar module manufacturers in 2015,” PV-Tech, 21 January 2016, http://www.pv-tech.org/editors-blog/top-10-solar-modulemanufacturers-in-2015. Lists of top 10 companies vary according to source, depending on methodology. The top 10 manufacturers of solar PV cells were Trina, JA Solar, Hanwha Q-Cells, Canadian Solar, First Solar, Jinko Solar, Yingli, Motech, NeoSolar and Shungfeng-Suntech, from Mints, op. cit. note 115. 121 Osborne, op. cit. note 120. 122 Wesoff, op. cit. note 73; manufacturers added more module assembly capacity and less cell capacity in 2014 and 2015, from Mints, “Trying to understand PV shipment numbers: do the math,” op. cit. note 114. See also: Christian Roselund, “Hanwha Q Cells returned to profitability during 2015, reports strong results,” PV Magazine, 28 March 2016, http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/ details/beitrag/hanwha-q-cells-returned-to-profitability-during- 2015--reports-strong-results_100023895/; Mark Osborne, “Trina Solar starts ramping cell and module production in Thailand,” PV-Tech, 29 March 2016, http://www.pv-tech.org/news/trinasolar-starts-ramping-cell-and-module-production-in-thailand; IEA, World Energy Outlook 2015 (Paris: 2015), p. 358. 123 New facilities based on the following: Algerian ENIE opened a 25 MW solar panel factory in 2015, from “ENIE se lance dans la fabrication des panneaux solaires,” Algeria Press Service, 21 July 2015, http://www.enie.dz/?p=880; in Brazil, Globo Brasil inaugurated a 180 MW module factory in 2015, BYD was constructing a 400 MW module factory due to open in 2016 and SunEdison announced plans to build a module factory, all from Wesoff, op. cit. note 73; Ian Clover, “Egypt unveils 50 MW PV project and 50 MW module fab,” PV Magazine, 29 June 2015, http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/egyptunveils-50-mw-pv-project-and-50-mw-module-fab_100019986/; IGD and SkyPower announced plans to build a 600 MW PV fabrication and assembly plant in Egypt, from Burger, op. cit. note 79; a PV module line with 50 MW of annual production capacity was installed in Iran during 2015, from Christian Roselund, “Iran to pay 35% premium for solar, wind plants with domestic content,” PV Magazine, 5 February 2016, http://www.pv-magazine.com/ news/details/beitrag/iran-to-pay-35-premium-for-solar--windplants-with-domestic-content_100023084/; Jason Deign, “South Africa’s module industry grows on local content push,” PV Insider, 2 February 2016, http://analysis.pv-insider.com/southafricas-module-industry-grows-local-content-push; “Talesun inaugure une usine ultra automatisée de 800 MW de capacité en Thaïlande,” Tecsol, 22 November 2015, http://tecsol.blogs. com/mon_weblog/2015/11/talesun-inaugure-une-usine-ultraautomatisée-de-800-mw-de-capacité-en-thaïlande.html. In response to trade tariffs from, for example: Doug Young, “New energy: trade wars push China solars offshore,” Young China Biz, 17 March 2015, http://www.youngchinabiz.com/en/new-energytrade-wars-push-china-solars-offshore/; Bridge to India, “166 GW of solar investment interest in India in the coming years,” India Solar Weekly, 9 February 2015; Liu Yuanyuan, “The Chinese viewpoint: what solar manufacturers plan to do about the US trade rulings,” Renewable Energy World, 24 February 2015, http:// www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2015/02/thechinese-viewpoint-what-solar-manufacturers-plan-to-do-aboutthe-us-trade-rulings. Expansion plans based on the following: Feifei Shen, “China’s Tongwei Group plans world’s biggest solar-cell plant,” Renewable Energy World, 19 November 2015, http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2015/11/china-stongwei-group-plans-world-s-biggest-solar-cell-plant.html; Mark Osborne, “SolarWorld adding 500MW of monocrystalline ingot production,” PV-Tech, 13 March 2015, http://www.pv-tech.org/ news/solarworld_adding_500mw_of_monocrystalline_ingot_ production; Bridge to India, “Global solar manufacturers look to India for new manufacturing capacity,” India Solar Weekly, 4 May 2015; Anindya Upadhyay, “JA Solar, Essel set to begin building solar cell, module plants,” Renewable Energy World, 1 September 2015, http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2015/09/ ja-solar-essel-set-to-begin-building-solar-cell-module-plants. html; Junko Movellan, “Panasonic ramps up Japanese solar manufacturing to meet domestic rooftop demand,” Renewable Energy World, 21 May 2015, http://www.renewableenergyworld. com/articles/2015/05/panasonic-ramps-up-japanese-solarmanufacturing-to-meet-domestic-rooftop-demand.html; Ian Clover, “Property deal signed for phase one of planned 1 GW Saudi PV fab,” PV Magazine, 11 January 2016, http://www. pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/property-deal-signedfor-phase-one-of-planned-1-gw-saudi-pv-fab_100022730/; Eric Wesoff, “1366 Technologies to build 250MW ‘direct’ silicon wafer factory in upstate NY,” Greentech Media, 7 October 2015, http:// www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/1366-Technologies-to- Build-250MW-Direct-Silicon-Wafer-Factory-in-Upstate. 124 Bloomberg, from Alex Nussbaum, “Solar goes on a building boom despite memories of past bust,” Renewable Energy World, 24 December 2015, http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/ articles/2015/12/solar-goes-on-a-building-boom-despitememories-of-past-bust. Note that there have been many announcements, but it is not realistic that all will be carried out, and some companies could be replacing existing lines, improving technologies and mixing wafers, etc., from Masson, op. cit. note 2. 125 Kieran Cooke, “Clouds over China’s solar power industry,” Climate News Network,” 10 August 2015, http://www.climatenewsnetwork. net/clouds-over-chinas-solar-power-industry/. 126 Tianwei was a manufacturer of electrical transformers, and then of polysilicon, from Doug Young, “New energy: solar weaklings shutter on Tianwei collapse,” Young China Biz, 21 September 2015, http://www.youngchinabiz.com/en/new-energy-solarweaklings-shudder-on-tianwei-collapse/#more-23492; Doug Young, “New energy: government bails out Yingli, sort of…,” Young China Biz, 14 October 2015, http://www.youngchinabiz. com/en/new-energy-government-bails-out-yingli-sort-of/; Yingli also from Nussbaum, op. cit. note 124. Hanergy came under investigation after its stock value plummeted in May 2015 and, in early 2016, posted its first annual loss since 2009, from the following: Brian Spegele and Wayne Ma, “Hanergy’s prospects dimmed by solar panels’ quality, analysts say,” Wall Street Journal, 22 June 2015, http://blogs.wsj.com/ chinarealtime/2015/06/22/hanergys-prospects-dimmed-bysolar-panels-quality-analysts-say/; “Hanergy,” Wikipedia, https:// en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanergy, viewed 31 March 2016; Antoine Gara, “Hanergy’s stock collapse is a frustrating win for handcuffed short sellers,” Forbes, 20 May 2015, http://www.forbes.com/ sites/antoinegara/2015/05/20/hanergys-stock-short-sellersdialectic-john-fichthorn/#6d959154495d; “Hanergy thin film posts loss four times bigger than revenue,” Bloomberg, 31 March 2016, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-31/ hanergy-thin-film-posts-loss-four-times-bigger-than-revenue. 127 Solar project developers have reported subsidy payment delays of up to 18 months, which has caused cash flow problems, from Raj Prabhu, Mercom Capital Group, cited in Movellan, op. cit. note 13. 128 Eric Wesoff, “The mercifully short list of fallen solar companies: 2015 edition,” Greentech Media, 1 December 2015, http://www. greentechmedia.com/articles/read/The-Mercifully-Short-List-of- Fallen-Solar-Companies-2015-Edition. 129 Christopher Martin and Brian Eckhouse, “SunEdison caps 2015 with deals boosting balance sheet,” Renewable Energy World, 4 January 2016, http://www.renewableenergyworld. com/articles/2016/01/sunedison-caps-wild-2015-ride-withdeals-boosting-balance-sheet; Stephen Lacey, “SunEdison to reassure investors about its growth path: ‘we’re going to acknowledge reality’,” Greentech Media, 7 October 2015, http:// 02 RENEWABLES 2016 · GLOBAL STATUS REPORT 219
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RENEWABLES 2016 GLOBAL STATUS REPOR
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GSR 2016 TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword
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Figures Figure 1. Estimated Renewab
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FOREWORD The year 2015 was an extra
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RENEWABLES GLOBAL STATUS REPORT (GS
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Note: Some individuals have contrib
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Sweden Robert Fischer (University o
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REVIEWERS AND OTHER CONTRIBUTORS Sh
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY GLOBAL OVERVIEW A
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RENEWABLE ENERGY INDICATORS 2015 IN
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TOP FIVE COUNTRIES Annual investmen
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SOLAR PV: Record deployment and rap
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INVESTMENT FLOWS A new record high;
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01 GLOBAL OVERVIEW The year 2015 wa
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markets, policy changes and uncerta
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Sidebar 1. Regional Spotlight: Sout
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Figure 4. Renewable Power Capacitie
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also are growing, as are wind turbi
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n Latin America: Biomass-based heat
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n Africa: Although biofuel producti
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JOBS IN RENEWABLE ENERGY Table 1. E
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02 MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRENDS BIOMA
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BIOMASS ENERGY Figure 7. Shares of
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China, the third largest ethanol pr
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concluded long-term offtake agreeme
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GEOTHERMAL POWER Figure XX. Figure
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GEOTHERMAL INDUSTRY Low natural gas
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HYDROPOWER Figure 12. Hydropower Gl
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OCEAN ENERGY OCEAN ENERGY MARKETS O
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Country of Spain, the first commerc
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7.3 GW was installed, for a total o
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Figure 16. Solar PV Capacity and Ad
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SOLAR PV INDUSTRY The solar PV indu
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Sharp - in the storage market by in
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CSP INDUSTRY It was a watershed yea
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SOLAR THERMAL HEATING AND COOLING F
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SOLAR THERMAL HEATING/COOLING INDUS
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WIND POWER WIND POWER MARKETS Wind
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WIND POWER Figure 23. Wind Power Gl
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WIND POWER INDUSTRY The wind power
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Sidebar 3. Renewable Power Technolo
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Investment Cost R USD min max wa Ca
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Investment Cost R USD min max wa Ca
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03 DISTRIBUTED RENEWABLE ENERGY FOR
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through renewables-based mini-grids
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India Tanzania Kenya Ethiopia 661,6
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INVESTMENT AND FINANCING The year 2
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The market for PAYG solar - micro-p
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in 2015. In 2014, GACC projected th
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04 INVESTMENT FLOWS Global new inve
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INVESTMENT BY ECONOMY The shift in
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INVESTMENT BY TECHNOLOGY Solar powe
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SOURCES OF INVESTMENT Debt makes up
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05 POLICY LANDSCAPE Nearly all coun
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spearheaded by UNIDO, is designed t
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Specific commitments to renewable h
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Figure 39. Countries with Renewable
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Three US states took steps to expan
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volume requirements that were an in
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Table 4. Renewable Energy Support P
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Table 4. Renewable Energy Support P
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06 ENERGY EFFICIENCY GLOBAL OVERVIE
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MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRENDS BUILDING
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States, new dishwashers use 40% les
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1990 and 2008, design-related effic
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The Green Climate Fund included in
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appliances, and the country also ha
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07 FEATURE: COMMUNITY RENEWABLE ENE
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ORGANISATIONAL STRUCTURES Organisat
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e a successful means for addressing
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Table R2. Renewable Electric Power
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Table R4. Geothermal Power Global C
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Table R6. Solar PV Global Capacity
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Table R8. Solar Water Heating Colle
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Table R10. Electricity Access by Re
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Table R10. Electricity Access by Re
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Table R11. Population Relying on Tr
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Table R12. Programmes Furthering En
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Table R12. Programmes Furthering En
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Table R13. Networks Furthering Ener
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Table R15. Share of Primary and Fin
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Table R15. Share of Primary and Fin
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Table R17. Share of Electricity Gen
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Page 247 and 248: ENDNOTES 05 POLICY LANDSCAPE POLICY
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Page 257 and 258: ENDNOTES 07 FEATURE Programme, 2013
Page 259 and 260: ENDNOTES REFERENCE TABLES 2016); so
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GLOSSARY Vehicle fuel standards. Ru
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