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ENDNOTES 02 MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRENDS - SOLAR PV
CSO & Head of Emerging Markets: Arturo Herrero,” Solar Plaza,
20 February 2015, http://www.solarplaza.com/article/an-indepth-interview-with-jinkosolars-cso-head-of;
many Italian
companies, for example, have turned to overseas markets, from
Becquerel Institute and IEA PVPS, personal communication
with REN21, 18 March 2016; shipments to all markets outside of
Europe were on the rise by early 2014, from Shyam Mehta, “5
crucial solar manufacturing stats for 2014,” Greentech Media,
17 March 2014, http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/
Five-Crucial-Solar-Manufacturing-Stats-for-2014-GTM-Research.
102 See, for example, Fraunhofer ISE and NREL, op. cit. note 91; Oscar
de la Rubia, Institute for Concentration Photovoltaics Systems,
Spain, cited in “CPV’s golden opportunity in the MENA region,”
Solar GCC Alliance, 11 February 2015, http://www.solargcc.com/
cpvs-golden-opportunity-in-the-mena-region/; Paula Mints,
“Fifteen things to watch out for in 2016,” Renewable Energy
World, 8 January 2016, http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/
articles/2016/01/fifteen-things-to-watch-out-for-in-2016.html. For
CSP, see CSP section in this GSR.
103 See, for example: Justin Doom, “Canada imposes tariff on
imported Chinese solar equipment,” Renewable Energy World, 9
March 2015, http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/
article/2015/03/canada-imposes-tariff-on-imported-chinesesolar-equipment;
Tom Miles and David Lawder, “US wins WTO
dispute against India’s solar rules,” Reuters, 25 February 2016,
http://planetark.org/wen/74192; BNEF and Business Council for
Sustainable Energy (BCSE), 2016 Sustainable Energy in America
Factbook (London and Washington, DC: 2016), http://www.
bcse.org/wp-content/uploads/BCSE-2016-Sustainable-Energyin-America-Factbook.pdf;
Ilana Solomon and Ben Beachy,
“The WTO just ruled against India’s booming solar program,”
Huffington Post, 24 February 2016, http://www.huffingtonpost.
com/ben-beachy/the-wto-just-ruled-agains_b_9307884.html.
104 Jason Deign, “Europe’s module import verdict to test price
convergence with China,” PV Insider, 16 October 2015,” http://
analysis.pv-insider.com/europes-module-import-verdict-testprice-convergence-china.
Module prices tend to be more global
than soft costs; however, US module prices are largely driven
by trade policy, including anti-dumping and countervailing
duties on Chinese module suppliers, from SEIA and GTM
Research, “US Solar Market Insight 2015 Q4” (Washington,
DC: 9 March 2016), http://www.seia.org/research-resources/
solar-market-insight-2015-q4.
105 GTM Research, PV Pulse, April 2016. The cheapest offers were
below USD 0.5/Wp, and probably as low as USD 0.44/Wp, per
PV Insights, provided by Masson, op. cit. note 2.
106 Vince Font, “How innovations in BOS will keep solar affordable in
a post-ITC world,” Renewable Energy World Magazine, November/
December 2015, pp. 26–31, http://www.renewableenergyworld.
com/articles/print/volume-18/issue-110/features/solar/howinnovations-in-bos-will-keep-solar-affordable-in-a-post-itc-world.
html.
107 Galen Barbose and Naïm Darghouth, Lawrence Berkeley National
Laboratory (LBNL), “Tracking the Sun VIII: The Installed Price
of Residential and Non-Residential Photovoltaic Systems in the
United States,” Report Summary (Berkeley, CA: August 2015),
https://emp.lbl.gov/sites/all/files/lbnl-188238%20presentation_0.
pdf. Soft costs also include marketing and customer acquisition,
system design, installation labor, and permitting and inspections,
from idem.
108 Galen Barbose and Naïm Darghouth, Tracking the Sun VIII: The
Installed Price of Residential and Non-Residential Photovoltaic
Systems in the United States (Berkeley, CA: LBNL, August 2015),
pp. 23–24, https://emp.lbl.gov/sites/all/files/lbnl-188238_2.pdf.
Soft costs in Germany are well below those in Japan and the
United States, from Masson, op. cit. note 2. Costs continue to
be higher in Japan than many other countries, however; see, for
example, Andy Colthorpe, “Japan’s government confirms plans for
solar tender,” PV-Tech, 4 March 2016, http://www.pv-tech.org/
news/japans-government-speaks-about-utility-scale-pv-tendersexplains-thinking-b.
109 Masson, op. cit. note 2.
110 Brazil’s solar auctions contracted at around USD 80/MWh,
from “Modules, large-scale PV see big price drop in 2010-2014,”
PV Insider, 9 November 2015, http://analysis.pv-insider.com/
pv-module-prices-drop-80-below-2009-levels-czech-repreignites-home-user-market,
and from Clover, op. cit. note 73;
Chile had a tender in October 2015 in which three solar PV
farms were offered for USD 65–68/MWh, compared to new
coal at rates up to USD 85/MWh, from Deutsche Bank, cited
in Beetz, op. cit. note 71; India from Anindya Upadhyay, “India’s
largest solar power auction reflects further drop in solar energy
costs,” Renewable Energy World, 4 August 2015, http://www.
renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2015/08/india-s-largestsolar-power-auction-reflects-further-drop-in-solar-energy-costs.
html; Jordan’s tender brought record-low tariffs, with the four
lowest in the range of USD 61.3–76.7/MWh, from Tsagas, op. cit.
note 78, and from “Modules, large-scale PV see big price drop
in 2010-2014,” op. cit. this note. In Mexico, solar bids in March
2016 averaged USD 40.5/MWh, from Vanessa Dezem and Adam
Williams, “Mexico first power auction awards 1,720 MW of wind,
solar,” Renewable Energy World, 30 March 2016, http://www.
renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2016/03/mexico-firstpower-auction-awards-1-720-mw-of-wind-solar.html;
the lowest
price bid in Mexico for solar was USD 35/MWh (v. USD 42/MWh
for wind power), which some experts believe was to ensure a
foothold in the market and expect prices to rise in future bidding
rounds, from Steve Sawyer, Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC),
personal communication with REN21, 6 April 2016. Peru awarded
185 MW of new solar PV contracts at record low prices for a
country without financial incentives, including tax breaks; of the
total, 144 MW was bid by Enel Green Power at USD 47.98/MWh,
and another 40 MW was bid by Enersur at USD 48.50/MWh, from
“Tremendously low 4.8¢/kWh solar price In Peru, unsubsidized,”
op. cit. note 73, and from Masson, op. cit. note 2. Dubai, UAE’s
tender was with the Dubai Electricity and Water Authority for
what was then the lowest-cost unsubsidised electricity to date,
just under USD 60/MWh, from “Modules, large-scale PV see big
price drop in 2010-2014,” op. cit. this note, and from Middle East
Solar Industry Association (MESIA), “Middle East to tender 2 GW;
Masdar to build 200 MW in Jordan,” PV Insider, 2 February 2016,
http://analysis.pv-insider.com/middle-east-tender-2-gw-masdarbuild-200-mw-jordan.
Note that between the tender in Dubai
and early 2016, Memorandums of Understanding were signed in
Jordan and Saudi Arabia for PPAs as low as USD 50/MWh, from
idem. It is important to be cautious about these figures because
tenders can be considered successful only if projects are actually
delivered. In some cases (e.g., UK), winners have clearly underbid
and then have not been able to deliver, from Roesch, op. cit.
note 92.
111 Germany from Roselund, op. cit. note 57; pilot tenders brought
successful bids averaging EUR 0.092 per kWh in April 2015,
EUR 0.085/kWh in August and as low as EUR 0.08/kWh in
December 2015, from SolarPower Europe, op. cit. note 2, p. 18;
United States from GTM Research and SEIA, op. cit. note 41, p.
11. See also: Roselund, op. cit. note 57; BNEF and BCSE, op. cit.
note 103, pp. 55, 56; David Ferris, “Solar power crosses threshold,
gets cheaper than natural gas,” Environment & Energy News, 21
August 2015, http://www.eenews.net/energywire/2015/08/21/
stories/1060023749; Herman K. Trabish, “Austin Energy gets
record low solar bids at under 4 cents/kWh,” Utility Dive, 2 July
2015, http://www.utilitydive.com/news/austin-energy-getsrecord-low-solar-bids-at-under-4-centskwh/401642/.
112 Trajectories from US Department of Energy, Revolution…Now: The
Future Arrives for Five Clean Energy Technologies – 2015 Update
(Washington, DC: November 2015), http://energy.gov/sites/prod/
files/2015/11/f27/Revolution-Now-11132015.pdf; competitive from
SolarPower Europe, Global Market Outlook for Solar Power: 2015-
2019, op. cit. note 1, p. 7.
113 Theologitis, op. cit. note 32.
114 Paula Mints, “Trying to understand PV shipment numbers: do
the math,” Renewable Energy World, 22 March 2016, http://
www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2016/03/trying-tounderstanding-pv-shipment-numbers-do-the-math.html;
Paula
Mints, “The top ten PV manufacturers in 2014 and why this
list can lack meaning,” Renewable Energy World, 12 February
2015, http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/
article/2015/02/the-top-ten-pv-manufacturers-in-2014-and-whythis-list-can-lack-meaning;
Masson, op. cit. note 2.
115 Preliminary estimates of 62,227 MW of cell production capacity
and 69,081 MW of module assembly capacity from Paula
Mints, “2015 top ten PV cell manufacturers,” Renewable Energy
World, 8 April 2016, http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/
articles/2016/04/2015-top-ten-pv-cell-manufacturers.html;
estimates of 61.2 GW for cells and 63.1 GW for modules from GTM
Research, op. cit. note 105.
218