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ENDNOTES 02 MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRENDS - SOLAR PV 72 The country added nearly 0.4 GW to make solar its fastest growing power source, from Honduras National Electric Energy Company, cited in Blanca Diaz Lopez, “389 MW of solar comes online in Honduras in 2015 to date,” PV Magazine, 19 November 2015, http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/ beitrag/389-mw-of-solar-comes-online-in-honduras-in-2015- to-date_100022041/; year-end capacity of 389 MW also from Becquerel Institute, April 2016; generous FIT (for the first 300 MW) and regulatory certainty that set it apart from its neighbours, from Christian Roselund, “Honduras: 232 MW of PV projects receive three cent bonus,” PV Magazine, 27 August 2015, http:// www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/honduras--232- mw-of-pv-projects-receive-three-cent-bonus_100020762; Adam Critchley, “Honduras emerges as Central America’s solar success story,” Greentech Media, 7 September 2015, http:// www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/honduras-emergesas-central-americas-solar-success-story. Figure 17 based on country-specific data and on sources provided throughout this section. Data for Taipei, China from PVPS, op. cit. note 1. 73 The decline in oil prices hurt the solar market in Mexico, from Adam James, “Mexico: Where oil prices really do impact solar,” Greentech Media, 28 April 2015, http://www.greentechmedia. com/articles/read/mexico-where-oil-prices-really-do-impactsolar; deployment in Mexico was on hold awaiting the Energy Transition Law, and Brazil’s market was affected by the country’s economic woes, from GTM Research, cited in Kenning, op. cit. note 2; Brazil’s challenges also from Vanessa Dezem, “Brazil state shelves auction for 200 MW of solar power,” Renewable Energy World, 29 February 2016, http://www.renewableenergyworld. com/articles/2016/02/brazil-state-shelves-auction-for-200- mw-of-solar-power.html. Both Brazil and Mexico had substantial capacity in the pipeline: Mexico had over 5 GW of permitted projects, and Brazil had over 2 GW contracted, from GTM Research, cited in Kenning, op. cit. note 2. Mexico added 103 MW for a total of 282 MW, from IEA PVPS, op. cit. note 1, p. 18. Mexico was the region’s leading market for distributed solar PV with more than 50 MW added through the national net metering programme, from Blanca Díaz López, “Mexico remains the leading distributed solar market in Latin America,” PV Magazine, 3 March 2016, http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/ mexico-remains-the-leading-distributed-solar-market-in-latinamerica_100023534/, and had a cumulative 114 MW at end-2014, from Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CRE), “Estadísticas: Contratos de interconexión en pequeña y mediana escala – año 2015,” p. 5, http://www.cre.gob.mx/documento/2109.pdf. In Brazil, 833 MW of new capacity was awarded out of a total 11.2 GW of total qualified bids, from Eric Wesoff, “Brazil announces the winners of its 833 MW solar auction,” Greentech Media, 7 September 2015, http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/ read/Brazil-Announces-the-Winners-of-Its-833-MW-Solar- Auction. Construction began late in the year on a 254 MW plant in Bahia state, with power contracted at USD 0.08/kWh, from Ian Clover, “Enel Green Power begins construction of 254 MW Brazil solar plant,” PV Magazine, 29 December 2015, http://www. pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/enel-green-powerbegins-construction-of-254-mw-brazil-solar-plant_100022581. In Peru, 144 MW was bid by Enel Green Power at USD 47.98/ MWh, and another 40 MW was bid by Enersur at USD 48.50/ MWh, from Henry Lindon, “Tremendously low 4.8¢/kWh solar price in Peru, unsubsidized,” CleanTechnica, 25 February 2016, http://cleantechnica.com/2016/02/25/tremendously-low-4- 8%C2%A2kwh-solar-price-in-peru-unsubsidized/, and from Masson, op. cit. note 2. 74 See, for example, Robert Muhn, Yingli Chile, cited in Movellan, op. cit. note 13. 75 Masson, op. cit. note 2 and March 2015. Deployment of solar PV is driven largely by decisions of large banks to support specific projects that they consider to pose relatively low risk, from idem. 76 Some of the fastest markets and drivers from Apricum PV Market Model Q3 2015, cited in Kurz, op. cit. note 7; IHS, MENASOL 2015, cited in Heba Hashem, “PV hit grid parity and Jordan, UAE as MENA capacity surges,” PV Insider, 29 May 2015, http://analysis. pv-insider.com/pv-hits-grid-parity-jordan-uae-mena-capacity-surges. 77 Masson, op. cit. note 2. 78 See, for example: “Solar developments in Jordan,” Renewable Energy World Magazine, September/October 2015, p. 10; “Cleaner, cheaper energy sources,” Jordan Times, 29 December 2015, http://www.jordantimes.com/opinion/editorial/ cleaner-cheaper-energy-sources; Ilias Tsagas, “Jordan’s second PV tender leads to record low tariffs,” PV Magazine, 18 May 2015, http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/jordanssecond-pv-tender-leads-to-record-low-tariffs-_100019481/; IHS, MENASOL 2015, cited in Hashem, op. cit. note 76. Jordan also has been busy installing solar panels on rooftops of homes, mosques and universities, from Ilias Tsagas, “Jordan’s rooftop PV sector thriving,” PV Magazine, 11 February 2015, http://www. pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/jordans-rooftop-pvsector-thriving_100018111/, from Edgar Meza, “Jordan launches plan to install solar on 6,000 mosques,” PV Magazine, 16 March 2015, http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/jordanlaunches-plan-to-install-solar-on-6-000-mosques_100018618/, and from Ilias Tsagas, “Jordan’s universities install solar,” PV Magazine, 2 March 2015, http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/ details/beitrag/jordans-universities-install-solar_100018383/. 79 Israel added 200 MW for a total of 880.7 MW, from IEA PVPS, op. cit. note 1. See also Anna Hirtenstein, “Israel’s 340-MW solar goal on hold as industry waits for government policies,” Renewable Energy World, 10 August 2015, http://www. renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2015/08/israel-s-340-mwsolar-goal-on-hold-as-industry-waits-for-government-policies. html. Progress was slow in Israel due to a large discovery of natural gas offshore in recent years and to uncertainty about government regulations, per idem. Kuwait, the State of Palestine and Saudi Arabia all had some capacity in operation at end- 2015, from Becquerel Institute, April 2016. Andrew Burger, “Egypt’s renewable energy drive gains steam,” Renewable Energy World, 9 June 2015, http://www.renewableenergyworld. com/articles/2015/06/egypt-s-renewable-energy-drive-gainssteam.html; Damian Carrington, “Saudi Arabia is hedging its bets with solar power,” Business Insider, 23 May 2015, http:// www.businessinsider.com/saudi-arabia-solar-power-2015-5; “Gaza to get 30 megawatts of solar energy,” World Bulletin, 16 April 2015, http://www.worldbulletin.net/news/157990/ gaza-to-get-30-megawatts-of-solar-energy. 80 See, for example: Becky Beetz, “Solar activity heats up in Africa,” PV Magazine, 16 November 2015, http://www.pv-magazine. com/news/details/beitrag/solar-activity-heats-up-inafrica_100021972/; Madilitso Mwando, “Zimbabwe capital turns to solar streetlights to cut costs, crime,” Reuters, 30 March 2015, http://planetark.org/wen/72986; in addition, a 300 MW solar PV plant is in the pipeline in the Zimbabwean province of Matabeleland South, from Stanley Tshoga, Biogas Solar Engineering Zimbabwe, personal communication with REN21, 10 April 2016. 81 In 2015, Algeria added 268 MW of solar PV for total of 271.38 MW (up from 3.38 MW at the end of 2014); 75 MW was in the pipeline for installation in 2016, and 400 MW of new capacity was in progress, from Samy Bouchaib, Centre de Développement des Energies Renouvelables, Algeria, personal communication with REN21, February 2016; Algeria added 268 MW, from SKTM, “Projet 400 MW,” http://www.sktm.dz/?page=article&id=56; Algeria ended the year with a total of 271.4 MW, from “14 solar plants commissioned in High Plateaus, South regions in 2015,” Algeria Press Service, 3 January 2016, http://www.aps.dz/en/ economy/10160; Algeria added 270 MW for a total of 300 MW, from IEA PVPS, op. cit. note 1, p. 18. South Africa added about 200 MW for a year-end total of 1,122 MW, from IEA PVPS, op. cit. note 1, p. 18; Algeria added 270 MW and South Africa added around 200 MW, from SolarPower Europe, op. cit. note 2, p. 21. 82 The announced pipeline for private investments under Egypt’s FIT is 2,300 MW, there are 0.5 GW of projects under a competitive bidding scheme, as well as state-owned plants, for a total of 3 GW, from Maged Mahmoud, Regional Center for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency (RCREEE), personal communication with REN21, 10 April 2016; Egypt added a few utility-scale plants in 2015, from SolarPower Europe, op. cit. note 2, p. 21; plans to finance, develop and construct up to 5 GW, from Masson, op. cit. note 2. Other Egypt information from: Edgar Meza, “Solar developers flocking to Egypt,” PV Magazine, 30 March 2015, http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/ beitrag/solar-developers-flocking-to-egypt_100018820/; Edgar Meza, “Egypt signs deals for 200 MW of solar,” PV Magazine, 4 May 2015, http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/ beitrag/egypt-signs-deals-for-220-mw-of-solar_100019320/; Ian Clover, “Scatec Solar launches Egyptian activities towards building 250 MW of solar,” PV Magazine, 26 October 2015, http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/ 216
ENDNOTES 02 MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRENDS - SOLAR PV scatec-solar-launches-egyptian-activities-towards-building-250- mw-of-solar_100021715/; Burger, op. cit. note 79. 83 Beetz, op. cit. note 80. See also: Ian Clover, “SkyPower announces $440m, 200 MW Djibouti solar plans,” PV Magazine, 2 October 2015, http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/ beitrag/skypower-announces-440m--200-mw-djibouti-solarplans_100021344/; “Akuo Energy: Signature of the largest solar project in West Africa, with the Malian government,” Tecsol, 24 October 2015, http://tecsol.blogs.com/mon_weblog/2015/10/ akuo-energy-signature-du-grand-projet-solaire-dafriquede-louest-avec-le-gouvernement-malien.html (using Google Translate); Ian Clover, “Nigeria signs $100m development deal for 50 MW solar farm,” PV Magazine, 11 November 2015, http:// www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/nigeria-signs- 100m-development-deal-for-50-mw-solar-farm_100021935/; Katherine Tweed, “Ignite Power will bring solar to 250,000 homes in Rwanda by 2018,” Greentech Media, 1 February 2016, http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/ignite-powerwill-bring-solar-to-250000-homes-in-rwanda-by-2018; Solar Solutions West Africa, “Top 20 – largest solar PV projects West Africa,” http://www.solarsolutionswestafrica.com/top20-solarpv-projects-west-africa/, viewed 6 April 2016; REN21, SADC Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Status Report 2015 (Paris: 2015), http://www.ren21.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/ REN21_SADC_Report_web.pdf. 84 Becky Beetz, “Off-grid solar market worth $300 million annually,” PV Magazine, 27 October 2015, http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/ off-grid-solar-market-worth-300-million-annually_100021728/. 85 Shem Oirere, “Coping with a lack of skilled solar workers in Africa,” Solar Novus, 22 March 2016, http://www.solarnovus.com/ coping-with-lack-of-skilled-solar-workers-in-africa_N9799.html. 86 IEA PVPS, op. cit. note 3, p. 59. 87 Early 2016 data (through February 2016) from the following sources: Denis Lenardic, “Large-scale PV power plants – Top 50,” pvresources, http://pvresources.com/en/pvpowerplants/ top50pv.php, updated 28 February 2016; Denis Lenardic, “Largescale PV power plants – Ranking 51–100,” pvresources, http:// pvresources.com/en/pvpowerplants/top100pv.php, updated 18 February 2016; Denis Lenardic, “Large-scale PV power plants – Ranking 101–150,” pvresources, http://pvresources.com/en/ pvpowerplants/top150pv.php, updated 1 January 2016; Denis Lenardic, pvresources, personal communication with REN21, 29 February 2016. Uruguay commissioned La Jacinta Solar Farm (50 MW) in 2015, from Uruguay Secretary of Energy, Ministerio de Industria, Energía y Minería, personal communication with REN21, 29 April 2016. Note that towards the end of 2015, the Wiki-Solar Database included over 5,000 utility-scale projects (defined as 4 MW (AC) and up) that represented more than 120 GW of solar generating capacity worldwide, from Wiki-Solar, “The Wiki-Solar Database,” http://wiki-solar.org/data/index.html, viewed 29 March 2016. There were at least 70 projects and 14 countries in early 2015, based on idem and Lenardic, personal communication, op. cit. this note. 88 Lenardic, “Large-scale PV power plants – Top 50,” op. cit. note 88; Lenardic, “Large-scale PV power plants – Ranking 51–100,” op. cit. note 88; Lenardic, “Large-scale PV power plants – Ranking 101–150,” op. cit. note 88. 89 Denis Lenardic, pvresources, personal communication with REN21, 6 March 2016. 90 Figure of 33 from Denis Lenardic, pvresources, personal communications with REN21, 29 February and 6 March 2016. For large-scale projects of about 4 MW and up, see “Global utility-scale solar reaches annual record yet again,” Solar Industry Magazine, 7 March 2016, http://solarindustrymag.com/globalutility-scale-solar-reaches-annual-record-yet-again; Eric Wesoff, “Solar Star, largest PV power plant in the world, now operational,” Greentech Media, 26 June 2015, http://www.greentechmedia. com/articles/read/Solar-Star-Largest-PV-Power-Plant-in-the- World-Now-Operational; Solar Star’s capacity in DC is 747.3 MW, from Mortenson, “Solar Star I and II, Rosamond, CA,” http:// www-cm.mortenson.com/solar/projects/solar-star-i-and-ii, viewed 15 April 2016. The Longyangxia Project in Qinghai Province is a hybrid plant with solar PV coupled directly to one of four turbines at the nearby 1,280 MW hydropower station. The 320 MW solar PV plant was expanded to 850 MW, and became operational in 2015, per Frank Haugwitz, AECEA, personal communication with REN21, April 2016, and Mathis Rogner, International Hydropower Association (IHA), personal communication with REN21, 26 April 2016. See also IHA, “Briefing: 2016 Key Trends in Hydropower” (London: 2016), https://www.hydropower. org/sites/default/files/publications-docs/2016%20Key%20 Trends%20in%20Hydropower.pdf, p. 3, and China State Power Investment Corporation, “World’s largest hydro/PV hybrid project synchronized,” 31 December 2014, http://eng.cpicorp.com.cn/ NewsCenter/CorporateNews/201501/t20150116_242766.htm. 91 Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (ISE) and US National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Current Status of Concentrator Photovoltaic (CPV) Technology (Freiburg, Germany and Golden, CO: February 2016), pp. 6, 7, https:// www.ise.fraunhofer.de/en/publications/veroeffentlichungenpdf-dateien-en/studien-und-konzeptpapiere/current-status-ofconcentrator-photovoltaic-cpv-technology.pdf. CPV entered the marketplace only in the mid-2000s, with the first plant exceeding 1 MW installed in Spain during 2006. The technology is still young and a small player, and there remains a lack of reliable data on all fronts, from idem, pp. 7, 10. 92 Simon P. Philipps et al., Current Status of Concentrator Photovoltaic (CPV) Technology (Freiburg, Germany and Golden, CO: Fraunhofer ISE and NREL, January 2015), p. 6, http://www. ise.fraunhofer.de/en/publications/veroeffentlichungen-pdfdateien-en/studien-und-konzeptpapiere/current-status-ofconcentrator-photovoltaic-cpv-technology.pdf; Alexandre Roesch, SolarPower Europe, personal communication with REN21, 7 April 2016. 93 Projects came online in China, Japan, Mexico, South Africa, the United States and some countries in Europe, based on data provided at CPV Consortium, “Listing projects,” http:// cpvconsortium.org/projects, viewed 19 March 2016, and from Fraunhofer ISE and NREL, op. cit. note 91, p. 11; cancelled from Masson, op. cit. note 2. In 2015 around 17 MW was newly installed, from Fraunhofer ISE and NREL, op. cit. note 91. For additional information, see also IHS, Top Solar Power Industry Trends for 2015 (Englewood, CO: 2015), https://www.ihs.com/pdf/Top-Solar- Power-Industry-Trends-for-2015_213963110915583632.pdf. 94 Fraunhofer ISE and NREL, op. cit. note 91, p. 5. More than 90% of capacity was high-concentration PV (HCPV) with two-axis tracking, from idem, p. 6. 95 In Italy, solar PV generated 24,676 GWh of electricity in 2015, up by 13% over 2014, according to preliminary statistics from Terna, cited in Ilias Tsagas, “Solar PV provides 7.8 percent of Italy’s electricity in 2015,” Renewable Energy World, 11 February 2016, http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2016/02/ solar-pv-provides-7-8-percent-of-italy-s-electricity-in-2015; Greece based on 3,658 GWh of solar PV generation and total electricity consumption of 56.4 TWh in 2015, for a solar PV share of 6.48%, from ΛΕΙΤΟΥΡΓΟΣ ΑΓΟΡΑΣ ΗΛΕΚΤΡΙΚΗΣ ΕΝΕΡΓΕΙΑΣ A.E., Μηνιαίο Δελτίο Ειδικού Λογαριασμού ΑΠΕ & ΣΗΘΥΑ (Pireas: December 2015), provided by Ioannis Tsipouridis, R.E.D. Pro Consultants S.A., Athens, personal communication with REN21, 25 April 2016; Germany data is preliminary and for gross electricity consumption, from BMWi, op. cit. note 54; solar PV generation of 5.9% (share of gross electricity generation), from AG Energiebilanzen, “Bruttostromerzeugung in Deutschland ab 1990 nach Energieträgern,” 28 January 2016, provided by AGEE- Stat, personal communication with REN21, 4 April 2016. 96 Figures of 3.5% and 7% from IEA PVPS, op. cit. note 1, p. 6; estimated nearly 4% of total from SolarPower Europe, op. cit. note 2, p. 4; data for 2008 from Gaëtan Masson, “Editorial: 2013, a qualified record-year for photovoltaics,” EPIA, March 2014, http:// www.epia.org/news/news/?page=1#news-278. 97 Figure of 22 countries from IEA PVPS, op. cit. note 1, pp. 6, 16. An estimated 17 out of 28 EU member states had enough to generate at least 1% of electricity with solar PV at end-2015, from Schmela, op. cit. note 52. 98 Frank Haugwitz, AECEA, personal communication with REN21, 11 April 2016. 99 IEA PVPS, op. cit. note 1, pp. 17, 18. Estimate for electricity generation is theoretical calculation based on average yield and installed solar PV capacity as of 31 December 2015. 100 Back on their feet from Haugwitz, op. cit. note 98; consolidate from Masson, op. cit. note 2. 101 Consolidation into downstream (including O&M and EPC) from Theologitis, op. cit. note 32; focusing on markets elsewhere from Alexandra S. Mebane, “An in-depth interview with JinkoSolar’s 02 RENEWABLES 2016 · GLOBAL STATUS REPORT 217
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RENEWABLES 2016 GLOBAL STATUS REPOR
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GSR 2016 TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword
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Figures Figure 1. Estimated Renewab
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FOREWORD The year 2015 was an extra
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RENEWABLES GLOBAL STATUS REPORT (GS
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Note: Some individuals have contrib
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Sweden Robert Fischer (University o
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REVIEWERS AND OTHER CONTRIBUTORS Sh
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY GLOBAL OVERVIEW A
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RENEWABLE ENERGY INDICATORS 2015 IN
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TOP FIVE COUNTRIES Annual investmen
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SOLAR PV: Record deployment and rap
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INVESTMENT FLOWS A new record high;
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01 GLOBAL OVERVIEW The year 2015 wa
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markets, policy changes and uncerta
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Sidebar 1. Regional Spotlight: Sout
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Figure 4. Renewable Power Capacitie
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also are growing, as are wind turbi
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n Latin America: Biomass-based heat
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n Africa: Although biofuel producti
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JOBS IN RENEWABLE ENERGY Table 1. E
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02 MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRENDS BIOMA
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BIOMASS ENERGY Figure 7. Shares of
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China, the third largest ethanol pr
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concluded long-term offtake agreeme
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GEOTHERMAL POWER Figure XX. Figure
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GEOTHERMAL INDUSTRY Low natural gas
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HYDROPOWER Figure 12. Hydropower Gl
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OCEAN ENERGY OCEAN ENERGY MARKETS O
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Country of Spain, the first commerc
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7.3 GW was installed, for a total o
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Figure 16. Solar PV Capacity and Ad
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SOLAR PV INDUSTRY The solar PV indu
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Sharp - in the storage market by in
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CSP INDUSTRY It was a watershed yea
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SOLAR THERMAL HEATING AND COOLING F
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SOLAR THERMAL HEATING/COOLING INDUS
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WIND POWER WIND POWER MARKETS Wind
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WIND POWER Figure 23. Wind Power Gl
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WIND POWER INDUSTRY The wind power
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Sidebar 3. Renewable Power Technolo
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Investment Cost R USD min max wa Ca
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Investment Cost R USD min max wa Ca
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03 DISTRIBUTED RENEWABLE ENERGY FOR
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through renewables-based mini-grids
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India Tanzania Kenya Ethiopia 661,6
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INVESTMENT AND FINANCING The year 2
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The market for PAYG solar - micro-p
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in 2015. In 2014, GACC projected th
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04 INVESTMENT FLOWS Global new inve
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INVESTMENT BY ECONOMY The shift in
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INVESTMENT BY TECHNOLOGY Solar powe
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SOURCES OF INVESTMENT Debt makes up
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05 POLICY LANDSCAPE Nearly all coun
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spearheaded by UNIDO, is designed t
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Specific commitments to renewable h
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Figure 39. Countries with Renewable
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Three US states took steps to expan
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volume requirements that were an in
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Table 4. Renewable Energy Support P
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Table 4. Renewable Energy Support P
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06 ENERGY EFFICIENCY GLOBAL OVERVIE
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MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRENDS BUILDING
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States, new dishwashers use 40% les
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1990 and 2008, design-related effic
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The Green Climate Fund included in
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appliances, and the country also ha
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07 FEATURE: COMMUNITY RENEWABLE ENE
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ORGANISATIONAL STRUCTURES Organisat
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e a successful means for addressing
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Table R2. Renewable Electric Power
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Table R4. Geothermal Power Global C
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Table R6. Solar PV Global Capacity
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Table R8. Solar Water Heating Colle
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Table R10. Electricity Access by Re
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Table R10. Electricity Access by Re
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Table R11. Population Relying on Tr
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Table R12. Programmes Furthering En
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Table R12. Programmes Furthering En
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Table R13. Networks Furthering Ener
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Table R15. Share of Primary and Fin
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Table R15. Share of Primary and Fin
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GLOSSARY Labelling. System in which
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GLOSSARY Vehicle fuel standards. Ru
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