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ENDNOTES 02 MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRENDS - SOLAR PV 38 Based on data from IEA PVPS, op. cit. note 1, and from Becquerel Institute, April 2016. 39 Based on data for the United States and for Canada. See other endnotes in this section for full references. 40 Canadian Solar Industries Association, provided by Masson, op. cit. note 2; IEA PVPS, op. cit. note 1, p. 18. Note that Canada officially reports data in AC; these sources converted data to DC for consistency across countries. 41 The United States added 7,260 MW of solar PV for a total of 25.6 GW, from GTM Research and US Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), US Solar Market Insight: 2015 Year-in-Review, Executive Summary (Washington, DC: March 2016), p. 4; added 5,942 MW of natural gas in 2015, from US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), “Office of Energy Projects Energy Infrastructure Update for December 2015,” www. ferc.gov/legal/staff-reports/2015/dec-infrastructure.pdf; and added 6,573.2 GW of natural gas, from US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Electric Power Monthly with Data for December 2015 (Washington, DC: February 2016), Table 6.1, www. eia.gov/electricity/monthly/pdf/epm.pdf. Note that both FERC and EIA report lower capacity additions for solar PV and wind power because they omit plants with capacity below 1 MW. See also GTM Research and SEIA, op. cit. this note. 42 GTM Research and SEIA, op. cit. note 41, p. 4. 43 PV Market Alliance website, op. cit. note 5; ITC also from IHS, cited in Katie Fehrenbacher, “There is a flood of solar farms in the US that are racing to beat a government deadline,” Fortune, 8 June 2015, https://fortune.com/2015/06/08/theres-a-flood-ofsolar-farms-in-the-u-s-that-are-racing-to-beat-a-governmentdeadline/. The federal ITC will remain at 30% through 2019 and then step down to 26% in 2020, 22% in 2021 and 10% in 2022 for all projects but direct-owned residential, for which it will expire; projects that commence construction can qualify, from GTM Research and SEIA, op. cit. note 41, p. 7. 44 GTM Research and SEIA, op. cit. note 41, p. 10. The US residential market was up 66% over 2014, and 2015 was the fourth consecutive year with annual growth of over 50%, from idem, pp. 6, 10. Direct ownership and new loan products from Nicole Litvak, “US residential solar financing 2015–2020,” Greentech Media, 29 July 2015, http://www.greentechmedia.com/research/report/ us-residential-solar-financing-2015-2020. It also is driven by innovative business models, such as third-party ownership, from SolarPower Europe, op. cit. note 2, p. 20. 45 An estimated 4,150 MW of utility solar was added in 2015 for a total exceeding 19.8 GW, from GTM Research and SEIA, op. cit. note 41, p. 6. 46 California and North Carolina from Ibid., p. 9. Hawaii from the following sources: Herman K. Trabish, “17% of Hawaiian electric customers now have rooftop solar,” Utility Dive, 1 February 2016, http://www.utilitydive.com/news/17-of-hawaiian-electriccustomers-now-have-rooftop-solar/413014/; Duane Shimogawa, “Hawaiian Electric has 77,000 installed solar PV systems across Hawaii,” Bizjournals, 28 January 2016, http://www.bizjournals. com/pacific/news/2016/01/28/hawaiian-electric-has-77-000- installed-solar-pv.html; an estimated 12% of all homes in Hawaii had solar, from Brian Korgaonkar, “How Hawaii has empowered energy storage and forever changed the US solar industry,” Renewable Energy World, 21 December 2015, http://www. renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2015/12/how-hawaiihas-empowered-energy-storage-and-forever-changed-theu-s-solar-industry.html. Most capacity added (87%) was in the top 10 states, from GTM Research and SEIA, op. cit. note 41, p. 7; however, growth is becoming widespread due to improving economics, from Miriam Makyhoun, Ryan Edge, and Nick Esch, Utility Solar Market Snapshot: Sustained Growth in 2014 (Washington, DC: Solar Electric Power Association, May 2015), https://www.solarelectricpower.org/media/322918/solar-marketsnapshot-2014.pdf. 47 This is true especially in Texas and the US Southeast, where some utilities are replacing retired coal plants with utility-scale solar PV and combined-cycle natural gas, from GTM Research and SEIA, op. cit. note 41, p. 11. Some utilities have begun to report that they approached solar PV as a least cost resource, from Makyhoun, Edge, and Esch, op. cit. note 46, p. 10. See also Becky Beetz, “Solar becoming ‘least-cost option’ for US utilities,” PV Magazine, 5 May 2015, http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/ solar-becoming-least-cost-option-for-us-utilities_100019329#ax zz3dMAG1BMk. 48 GTM Research, The Next Wave of US Utility Solar, cited in Colin Smith, “What drives utility solar growth in a post-ITCextension world?” Greentech Media, 24 March 2016, http://www. greentechmedia.com/articles/read/What-Drives-Utility-Solar- Growth-in-a-Post-ITC-Extension-World. 49 Establish own programmes from the following sources: Julia Pyper and Eric Wesoff, “Georgia Power is launching its own rooftop solar business,” Greentech Media, 1 July 2015, http:// www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Georgia-Power-is- Launching-its-Own-Rooftop-Solar-Business; Ray Henry and Susan Montoya, “Big utilities enter market for small rooftop solar,” Associated Press, 29 September 2015, http://bigstory. ap.org/article/ce51b24b29da496c8e0e63f9ef712263/bigutilities-enter-market-small-rooftop-solar; Krysti Shallenberger, “Utilities are getting ready for life with distributed generation – report,” Environment & Energy News, 11 August 2015, http:// www.eenews.net/energywire/2015/08/11/stories/1060023259; Herman K. Trabish, “New software offerings help utilities boost community solar programs,” Utility Dive, 16 July 2015, http:// www.utilitydive.com/news/new-software-offerings-helputilities-boost-community-solar-programs/401498/; Kristi E. Swartz, “Southern Co. goes all in on solar, storage, smart homes,” Environment & Energy News, 28 May 2015, http:// www.eenews.net/energywire/2015/05/28/stories/1060019211; “Major Texas coal power producer hops on solar train,” Environment & Energy News, 9 September 2015, http://www. eenews.net/energywire/2015/09/09/stories/1060024361. Fight for change from Krysti Shallenberger, “Utility adapts to the future, but battles others for market share,” Environment & Energy News, 14 September 2015, http://www.eenews.net/ energywire/2015/09/14/stories/1060024590. 50 Shayle Kann, “Executive Briefing: The Future of US Solar - Getting to the Next Order of Magnitude,” Greentech Media, November 2015, p. 15, https://www.greentechmedia.com/research/report/ exec-briefing-the-future-of-us-solar. Regulatory disputes and more on the net metering debate from, for example: Paula Mints, “Notes from the solar underground: the US utility war against metering,” Renewable Energy World, 23 February 2016, http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2016/02/ notes-from-the-solar-underground-the-us-utility-war-againstnet-metering; Paula Mints, “Fifteen things to watch out for in 2016,” Renewable Energy World, 8 January 2016, http://www. renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2016/01/fifteen-things-towatch-out-for-in-2016.html; Shallenberger, op. cit. note 50; GTM Research and SEIA, op. cit. note 41, p. 8. For more on Nevada and impacts on solar PV market and companies, see also Davide Savenije, “NV Energy hits net metering cap ahead of schedule, adding fuel to solar debate,” Utility Dive, 24 August 2015, http:// www.utilitydive.com/news/nv-energy-hits-net-metering-capahead-of-schedule-adding-fuel-to-solar-deb/404468/. 51 Nicole Litvak, Solar Research, cited in Shayle Kann, “The ITC awakens: what the extension of a key federal tax credit means for solar,” Greentech Media, 22 December 2015, http://www.greentechmedia.com/squared/read/ gtm-research-roundtable-the-itc-awakens. 52 Three years of decline from Masson, op. cit. note 2; 2011 peak based on 22.4 GW from EPIA, Market Report 2013 (Brussels: March 2014), p. 4, http://www.epia.org/uploads/ tx_epiapublications/Market_Report_2013_02.pdf; Photovoltaics market: Europe is in decline, but Asia is booming,” Sun & Wind Energy, 22 July 2014, http://www.sunwindenergy.com/ photovoltaics/photovoltaics-market-europe-decline-asiabooming. Policy shift and general uncertainty from Michael Schmela, SolarPower Europe, “SolarPower Webinar: Market report and solar developments in Europe,” 23 March 2016, https://youtu.be/_wVUpCAN9BU, and from SolarPower Europe, op. cit. note 2. 53 Based on data from Becquerel Institute, 2016, and from IEA PVPS, op. cit. note 1. The EU added 7,572 MW; all of Europe added 8.1 GW for a total of 96.9 GW, from SolarPower Europe, op. cit. note 2. 54 UK figure of 3.7 GW from SolarPower Europe, op. cit. note 2, and from Masson, op. cit. note 2. The UK added 3,537 MW according to preliminary data from UK Department of Energy & Climate Change (DECC), “Energy Trends Section 6 – Renewables” (London: March 2016), https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/ system/uploads/attachment_data/file/511939/Renewables. pdf. Germany added 1,355 MW for a total of 39,698 MW, from Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Energie (BMWi), 214
ENDNOTES 02 MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRENDS - SOLAR PV Erneuerbare Energien in Deutschland, Daten zur Entwicklung im Jahr 2015 (Berlin: February 2015), p. 4, http://www.erneuerbareenergien.de/EE/Redaktion/DE/Downloads/erneuerbareenergien-in-zahlen-2015.pdf, and added 1,453 MW for a year-end total of 39,702.9 MW, from IEA PVPS, op. cit. note 1, and from Masson, op. cit. note 2. France added an estimated 879 MW for a total of 6.58 GW, from idem, p. 18. Share of total EU installations based on data from Becquerel Institute, April 2016, and IEA PVPS, op. cit. note 1. One-third of France’s capacity additions were in one 300 MW plant, from SolarPower Europe, op. cit. note 2, p. 11. 55 The Netherlands added an estimated 450 MW for a total of 1.57 GW, and Italy added 300 MW for a total of 18.92 GW, from IEA PVPS, op. cit. note 1, p. 9; Italian market down dramatically (most developers have left Italy for markets overseas) from Masson, op. cit. note 2; the Netherlands added about 400 MW in 2015, and additions there as well as in Denmark (about 180 MW) were driven mainly by net metering, from SolarPower Europe, op. cit. note 2, p. 12. 56 In 2008, Spain added 2.6 GW of capacity, which represented half of global installations that year, from REN21, Renewables Global Status Report 2009 Update (Paris: 2009); added about 56 MW in 2015 for a total of 5.44 GW, from IEA PVPS, op. cit. note 1; and added 49 MW in 2015, up from 22 MW in 2014, from SolarPower Europe, op. cit. note 2, p. 11; situation in 2015 from SolarPower Europe, op. cit. note 1; SolarPower Europe, op. cit. note 2, p. 19; Ilias Tsagas, “Spain approves ‘sun tax,’ discriminates against solar PV,” Renewable Energy World, 23 October 2015, http://www. renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2015/10/spain-approvessun-tax-discriminates-against-solar-pv; Blanca Diaz Lopez, “Spain’s supreme tribunal rules against PV system owners,” PV Magazine, 22 January 2016, http://www.pv-magazine.com/ news/details/beitrag/spains-supreme-tribunal-rules-agains-pvsystem-owners_100022919/. Spain added 56 MW for a total of 5.44 GW, from IEA PVPS, op. cit. note 1, p. 18; Spain had 4,667 MW of capacity at end-2015, based on preliminary data from RED Eléctrica de España (REE), El Sistema Eléctrico Español: Avance 2015 (Madrid: 2016), p. 4, http://www.ree.es/sites/default/files/ downloadable/avance_informe_sistema_electrico_2015_v2.pdf. 57 Subsidy expiration and FIT cuts from Jonathan Gifford, “UK: Solar outshines hydro, drives down coal in 2015,” PV Magazine, 7 January 2016, http://www.pv-magazine.com/ news/details/beitrag/uk--solar-outshines-hydro--drives-downcoal-in-2015_100022703/, and from Chris Roselund, “2015: The year in solar,” PV Magazine, 5 January 2016, http://www. pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/2015--the-year-insolar_100022618/. The UK had about 9.1 GW at year-end, per Masson, op. cit. note 2, and the country had 8,915 MW, according to preliminary estimates from UK DECC, op. cit. note 54. 58 Gifford, op. cit. note 57. 59 Reduction relative to 2014 based on 1.9 GW added in 2014, from BMWi, Marktanalyse Photovoltaik-Dachlagen (Berlin: 2015), http://www.erneuerbare-energien.de/EE/Redaktion/DE/ Downloads/bmwi_de/marktanalysen-photovoltaik-photovoltaik. pdf. Germany added 1.89 GW in 2014 (compared with 3.14 GW in 2014 and 7.27 GW in 2012) for a total of 38.23 GW, from German Federal Network Agency, cited in “Germany added only 1.89 GW of PV capacity in 2014,” Photon, 3 February 2015, http:// www.photon.info/en/news/germany-added-only-189-gw-pvcapacity-2014; Germany added 1.9 GW for a total of 38.2 GW at the end of 2014, from Bundesverband Solar Wirtschaft e.V. (BSW- Solar), “Statistische Zahlen der deutschen Solarstrombranche (Photovoltaik),” March 2015, https://www.solarwirtschaft. de/fileadmin/media/pdf/2015_4_BSW_Solar_Faktenblatt_ Photovoltaik.pdf. Official target (EEG corridor) of 2.4–2.6 GW, from BMWi, op. cit. note 54, p. 4. 60 Germany’s year-end capacity totalled 39,698 MW (1,355 MW added in 2015), preliminary data from BMWi, op. cit. note 54; Germany’s cumulative capacity was 39,703.9 MW, from IEA PVPS, op. cit. note 1. 61 SolarPower Europe, “2015: A positive year for solar,” op. cit. note 1. Self-consumption is becoming the primary driver for distributed PV, from Schmela, op. cit. note 52. However, self-consumption policies are very complicated, particularly in France, Germany and Spain, and thus not supporting solar PV deployment, from Masson, op. cit. note 2. The list of countries constraining selfconsumption in some way is long (e.g., Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Spain), from SolarPower Europe, op. cit. note 2, pp. 17–18. 62 Alexandre Roesch, SolarPower Europe, personal communication with REN21, 17 March 2016. 63 Market design from Ibid.; business models from Masson, op. cit. note 2. See also Giles Parkinson, “Graph of the day: solar reaches 9.1% of demand in France,” REnew Economy, 14 April 2015, http://reneweconomy.com.au/2015/ graph-of-the-day-solar-reaches-9-1-of-demand-in-france-87521. 64 Australia added 935 MW for a total of 5,065 MW, from IEA PVPS, op. cit. note 1, p. 18; one panel per inhabitant from “Australian solar industry celebrates the new year by ticking over 1.5m PV systems and one solar panel per person,” SunWiz, 3 January 206, http://www.sunwiz.com.au/index.php/2012-06-26-00-47-40/73- newsletter/384-australian-solar-industry-celebrates-the-newyear-by-ticking-over-1-5m-pv-systems.html. 65 Residential from Jonathan Pearlman, “Australia taking solar power to the next level,” Straits Times, 31 January 2016, http:// www.straitstimes.com/asia/australianz/australia-taking-solarpower-to-the-next-level; Jo Chandler, “Despite hurdles, solar power in Australia is too robust to kill,” Yale Environment 360, 11 June 2015, http://e360.yale.edu/feature/despite_hurdles_solar_ power_in_australia_is_too_robust_to_kill/2884/; Jonathan Gifford, “Australia leads world in residential solar penetration,” PV Magazine, 29 September 2015, http://www.pv-magazine.com/ news/details/beitrag/australia-leads-world-in-residential-solarpenetration_100021291/. About 1.5 million households had rooftop solar PV, with the highest share (nearly 30%) in Queensland, from Pearlman, op. cit. this note; commercial and large-scale from Chandler, op. cit. this note; SolarPower Europe, op. cit. note 2, p. 21. Two large-scale plants opened in New South Wales in early 2016, from Pearlman, op. cit. this note. Residential solar PV actually contracted some in 2015, whereas small- and mediumscale commercial as well as industrial- and utility-scale increased significantly, from “Australian solar industry celebrates the new year…,” op. cit. this note. 66 Based on Melbourne Energy Institute and Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology, Five Years of Declining Annual Consumption of Grid-Supplied Electricity in Eastern Australia: Causes and Consequences, cited in Giles Parkinson, “Graph of the day: how solar PV slashed electricity demand,” REnew Economy, 4 September 2015, http://reneweconomy.com.au/2015/graph-ofthe-day-how-solar-pv-slashed-electricity-demand. See also Giles Parkinson, “Solar makes its mark on unsuspecting global energy markets,” REnew Economy, 31 March 2015, http://reneweconomy. com.au/2015/solar-makes-its-mark-on-unsuspecting-globalenergy-markets, and Ian Clover, “Half of all Australian households could adopt solar by 2018, finds the Climate Council,” PV Magazine, 22 October 2015, http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/ details/beitrag/half-of-all-australian-households-could-adoptsolar-by-2018--finds-the-climate-council_100021644/. 67 Chandler, op. cit. note 65. 68 IEA PVPS, op. cit. note 3, pp. 11, 30. 69 Estimate of 1.1–1.2 GW added for a year-end total of 1.9–2 GW across the region, from Masson, op. cit. note 2. 70 Chile added 446 MW (DC) for a total of 848 MW, from IEA PVPS, op. cit. note 1; Chile added 316 MW (AC) in 2015 for a total of 536 MW (AC) in operation at year’s end, but including projects in the test phase, total capacity was 848 MW at end-2015, up from 402 MW (AC) at the beginning of the year, with 2,195 MW (AC) under construction by end-2015, from Chile National Center for Innovation and Promotion of Sustainable Energy (CIFES), Ministry of Energy, http://cifes.gob.cl/documentos/home-destacado/ reporte-cifes-enero-2016/, cited in Blanca Diaz Lopez and Christian Roselund, “Chile: 316 MW–AC of solar PV came online in 2015,” PV Magazine, 20 January 2016, http://www.pv-magazine. com/news/details/beitrag/chile--316-mw-ac-of-solar-pvcame-online-in-2015_100022880/; 316 MW of commercial capacity added in 2015 for a year-end total of 848 MW, from CIFES, Reporte CIFES—Energías Renovables en el Mercado Eléctrico Chileno (Santiago: January 2016), p. 2, http://cifes.gob. cl/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Reporte_CIFES_Enero_v3.pdf. Rapid growth was due mainly to very large-scale projects, driven by Chile’s renewable energy law and very high spot market prices thanks to the country’s mining industry, from Movellan, op. cit. note 13. 71 Deutsche Bank, cited in Becky Beetz, “Chile: Solar cheaper than fossil fuels,” PV Magazine, 5 November 2015, http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/ chile--solar-cheaper-than-fossil-fuels_100021869/. 02 RENEWABLES 2016 · GLOBAL STATUS REPORT 215
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RENEWABLES 2016 GLOBAL STATUS REPOR
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GSR 2016 TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword
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Figures Figure 1. Estimated Renewab
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FOREWORD The year 2015 was an extra
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RENEWABLES GLOBAL STATUS REPORT (GS
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Note: Some individuals have contrib
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Sweden Robert Fischer (University o
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REVIEWERS AND OTHER CONTRIBUTORS Sh
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY GLOBAL OVERVIEW A
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RENEWABLE ENERGY INDICATORS 2015 IN
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TOP FIVE COUNTRIES Annual investmen
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SOLAR PV: Record deployment and rap
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INVESTMENT FLOWS A new record high;
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01 GLOBAL OVERVIEW The year 2015 wa
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markets, policy changes and uncerta
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Sidebar 1. Regional Spotlight: Sout
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Figure 4. Renewable Power Capacitie
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also are growing, as are wind turbi
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n Latin America: Biomass-based heat
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n Africa: Although biofuel producti
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JOBS IN RENEWABLE ENERGY Table 1. E
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02 MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRENDS BIOMA
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BIOMASS ENERGY Figure 7. Shares of
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China, the third largest ethanol pr
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concluded long-term offtake agreeme
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GEOTHERMAL POWER Figure XX. Figure
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GEOTHERMAL INDUSTRY Low natural gas
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HYDROPOWER Figure 12. Hydropower Gl
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OCEAN ENERGY OCEAN ENERGY MARKETS O
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Country of Spain, the first commerc
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7.3 GW was installed, for a total o
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Figure 16. Solar PV Capacity and Ad
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SOLAR PV INDUSTRY The solar PV indu
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Sharp - in the storage market by in
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CSP INDUSTRY It was a watershed yea
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SOLAR THERMAL HEATING AND COOLING F
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SOLAR THERMAL HEATING/COOLING INDUS
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WIND POWER WIND POWER MARKETS Wind
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WIND POWER Figure 23. Wind Power Gl
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WIND POWER INDUSTRY The wind power
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Sidebar 3. Renewable Power Technolo
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Investment Cost R USD min max wa Ca
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Investment Cost R USD min max wa Ca
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03 DISTRIBUTED RENEWABLE ENERGY FOR
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through renewables-based mini-grids
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India Tanzania Kenya Ethiopia 661,6
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INVESTMENT AND FINANCING The year 2
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The market for PAYG solar - micro-p
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in 2015. In 2014, GACC projected th
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04 INVESTMENT FLOWS Global new inve
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INVESTMENT BY ECONOMY The shift in
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INVESTMENT BY TECHNOLOGY Solar powe
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SOURCES OF INVESTMENT Debt makes up
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05 POLICY LANDSCAPE Nearly all coun
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spearheaded by UNIDO, is designed t
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Specific commitments to renewable h
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Figure 39. Countries with Renewable
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Three US states took steps to expan
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volume requirements that were an in
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Table 4. Renewable Energy Support P
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Table 4. Renewable Energy Support P
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06 ENERGY EFFICIENCY GLOBAL OVERVIE
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MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRENDS BUILDING
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States, new dishwashers use 40% les
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1990 and 2008, design-related effic
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The Green Climate Fund included in
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appliances, and the country also ha
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07 FEATURE: COMMUNITY RENEWABLE ENE
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ORGANISATIONAL STRUCTURES Organisat
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e a successful means for addressing
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Table R2. Renewable Electric Power
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Table R4. Geothermal Power Global C
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Table R6. Solar PV Global Capacity
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Table R8. Solar Water Heating Colle
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Table R10. Electricity Access by Re
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Table R10. Electricity Access by Re
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Table R11. Population Relying on Tr
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Table R12. Programmes Furthering En
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Table R12. Programmes Furthering En
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Table R13. Networks Furthering Ener
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Table R15. Share of Primary and Fin
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Page 257 and 258: ENDNOTES 07 FEATURE Programme, 2013
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GLOSSARY projects vary in technolog
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GLOSSARY Labelling. System in which
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GLOSSARY Vehicle fuel standards. Ru
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PHOTO CREDITS page 9 SAIREC, South
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