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ENDNOTES 02 MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRENDS - BIOMASS ENERGY heat estimate is based on an extrapolation assuming a continuing rate of growth at historical levels (2000–11) of 1.3%/year, up from 8 EJ/year in 2011, from Anselm Eisentraut and Adam Brown, Heating Without Global Warming: Market Developments and Policy Considerations for Renewable Heat (Paris: IEA, 2014), p. 30, http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/ heating-without-global-warming.html. The estimate of modern bioenergy use in buildings is calculated as the difference between the industrial and the total modern bioenergy demand. 17 Estimate based on the following: 297 GWth of bioenergy heat plant capacity installed as of 2008, from Chum et al., op. cit. note 13. Projections based on this number have been made for past GSRs. The combination of the Chum et al. data, plus past GSR projections, was used to estimate 2014 values of 305 GWth using a linear regression. The 2015 value presented here assumes a 3.5% growth rate from that 305 GW th value, based on the same percent increase for modern heat generation as presented in IEA, op. cit. note 4, p. 242. Note that accurate heat data, including from bioenergy, are very difficult to obtain as most capacity installations and output are not metered. Even if plant capacities are known, there often is no knowledge of whether a 1 MWth plant, for example, is used for 80 hours or 8,000 hours per year. 18 Eisentraut and Brown, op. cit. note 16. 19 Ibid. 20 Ibid. 21 Ibid. 22 Based on data in IEA, op. cit. note 4 and in EurObserv’ER, Solid Biomass Barometer (Paris: 2015), http://www.eurobserv-er.org/ category/all-solid-biomass-barometers/. 23 Each EU Member State is obligated under the Renewable Energy Directive to develop renewable energy to meet a mandatory national target for 2020 for the share of renewables in final energy consumption. To achieve this, each country has prepared a National Renewable Energy Action Plan that includes measures to promote renewable heat. This is leading to growing efforts to encourage renewable heating, which comes primarily from biomass. 24 Pellets Forum, “Pellets industry discusses current legal framework and market prospects,” press release (Munich: 20 July 2015), http://www.pelletsforum.de/index.php?id=763&L=1&tx_ ttnews%5Byear%5D=2015&tx_ttnews%5Bmonth%5D=07&tx_ ttnews%5Bday%5D=20&tx_ttnews%5Btt_ news%5D=1732&cHash=b354dfcec68e49d2dfbc0c4f98fbc451. 25 Notably in the large cities of Kaunas, Jonava and Moletai. See Lithuanian Biomass Energy Association (LITBIOMA) and European Biomass Association (AEBIOM), “Biomass in Lithuanian Heat Sector – Benefits and the Future,” presentation, 29 September 2015, http://www.lsta.lt/files/events/2015-09-29_ Danijos%20ambasados%20renginys/03_LITBIOMA%20V.%20 Gaubyte%20EN.pdf. 26 US EIA, “Increase in wood as main source of household heating most notable in the Northeast,” Today in Energy, 17 March 2014. 27 Bruce Dorminey, “Low heating oil prices depress domestic wood pellet market,” Renewable Energy World, 29 February 2016, http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2016/02/lowheating-oil-prices-depress-domestic-wood-pellet-market.html. 28 Eisentraut and Brown, op. cit. note 16, p. 31. 29 European Commission Intelligent Energy Europe Projects Database, “Development of sustainable heat markets for biogas plants in Europe (BIOGASHEAT),” https://ec.europa.eu/energy/ intelligent/projects/en/projects/biogasheat, viewed 13 May 2016. 30 Xia Zuzhang, China’s Domestic Biogas Sector Must Adjust to Changing Conditions (London: International Institute for Environment and Development, January 2014), http://pubs. iied.org/pdfs/17185IIED.pdf; MNRE, “Physical progress (achievements),” http://www.mnre.gov.in/mission-and-vision-2/ achievements, viewed 1 February 2016. 31 Bio-electricity capacity data based on the 2015 forecast data in IEA, op. cit. note 4, except for the following: US capacity data based on US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), “Office of Energy Projects Energy Infrastructure Update for December 2015,” http://www.ferc.gov/legal/staff-reports/2015/ dec-infrastructure.pdf; Brazilian Electricity Regulatory Agency (ANEEL), “Banco de informacoes de geração,” http://www2. aneel.gov.br/aplicacoes/capacidadebrasil/capacidadebrasil. cfm, viewed 9 May 2016; China National Renewable Energy Centre, provided by Amanda Zhang, Chinese Renewable Energy Industries Association (CREIA), personal communication with REN21, 26 April 2016; Germany preliminary statistics from BMWi, op. cit. note 10; United Kingdom from UK DECC, op. cit. note 10; India from MNRE, op. cit. note 10; Japan from Hironao Matsubara, Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies (ISEP), Tokyo, Japan, personal communication with REN21, 10 April 2016. Bio-electricity generation statistics based on 2015 forecast data from IEA, op. cit. note 4, except for the following: US data from US EIA, op. cit. note 10, corrected for difference between net and gross electricity generation; Germany preliminary statistics from BMWi, op. cit. note 10; United Kingdom from UK DECC, op. cit. note 10; India from MNRE, op. cit. note 10. 32 Figure 8 based on IEA data for 2005–13, from IEA, op. cit. note 6, and on REN21 analysis of generation for 2013 and 2014 (p see Endnote 31). 33 Capacity data based on FERC, op. cit. note 31; US generation based on data in US EIA, op. cit. note 10. 34 For example, plants that have been using almond tree wastes to produce electricity in California are threatened with closure, prompting problems with disposing of the residues from almond orchards, from Geoffrey Mohan, ”Solar is in, biomass energy is out – and farmers are struggling to dispose of woody waste,” Los Angeles Times, 31 December 2015, http://www.latimes.com/ business/la-fi-biomass-closing-20160101-story.html. 35 Europe is the leading market for production of electricity from biogas and bio-methane. As of early 2015, the region had more than 17,000 biogas plants and nearly 400 bio-methane plants in operation, with power generating capacity exceeding 8 GW, from European Biogas Association (EBA), Biogas Report 2015 (Brussels: December 2015), http://european-biogas. eu/2015/12/16/biogasreport2015/. 36 Preliminary statistics from BMWi, op. cit. note 10. Growth in biomass energy capacity in Germany, based largely on biogas, has slowed due to a cap on newly installed bioenergy plants from 2015 onwards, set in the Renewable Sources Act (EEG) 2014. Feed-in tariffs also have been lowered. The only new installations are small-scale biogas installations under 75 kW based on more than 80% manure. The increase in output is due to the more flexible generation from biogas plants in order to produce electricity when the wind and sun are not providing generation, per Julie Münch, Fachverband Biogas e.V., personal communication with REN21, 8 April 2016. 37 Münch, op. cit. note 36. 38 Generation increased to 29.0 TWh, and capacity rose by 625 MW, reaching nearly 5.2 GW. Based on UK DECC, op. cit. note 10. 39 Drax, “Drax set to become largest single renewable generator in the UK,” press release (Selby, North Yorkshire, UK: 9 December 2013), http://www.drax.com/news/news-articles/2013/12/draxset-to-become-largest-single-renewable-generator-in-the-uk/. 40 Growth in electricity generation from biogas was particularly strong in the UK, with 65 MW of new capacity commissioned under the feed-in tariff scheme, bringing total installed capacity to 282 MW with a further 1,274 MW of capacity from landfill gas and sewage gas already in place. UK Office of Gas and Electricity Markets, Feed-in Tariff (FIT): Quarterly Report, 1 March 2016, https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/system/files/docs/2016/03/ feed-in_tariff_fit_quarterly_report_-_issue_23.pdf. 41 China National Renewable Energy Centre, op. cit. note 31. 42 Estimated based on capacity figure of 10.3 GW. 43 Abbie Clare et al., “Should China subsidize cofiring to meet its 2020 bioenergy target? A spatio-techno-economic analysis,” Global Change Biology – Bioenergy, vol. 8, no. 3 (May 2015), pp. 550–60, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcbb.12264/ abstract. 44 Matsubara, op. cit. note 31. Bio-electricity expansion is fuelled mainly by forestry products including imported chips and pellets and palm kernel shells. The domestic supply chain of chip from forestry is so far limited and high-cost. 45 MNRE, op. cit. note 10. 46 New projects with a capacity of 389 MW were awarded PPAs in April 2015 and are expected to be constructed and brought into operation between 2018 and 2019. See IEA and International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) Policies & Measures 202
ENDNOTES 02 MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRENDS - BIOMASS ENERGY Database, “Brazil Renewable Energy Auctions,” http://www.iea. org/policiesandmeasures/pams/brazil/name-146121-en.php. Contracts for a further 1,993 MW were awarded in December 2015 to 22 existing biomass plants, 20 of which use sugarcane bagasse as fuel, and two which use wood residues, from Lucas Morais, “Brazil awards 1.9 GW of biomass contracts in Dec 11 auction,” SeeNews Renewables, 11 December 2015, http:// renewables.seenews.com/news/brazil-awards-1-9-gw-ofbiomass-contracts-in-dec-11-auction-505298. 47 Fuel ethanol data from F.O. Licht, “Fuel Ethanol: World Production by Country,” 2016; biodiesel data for Argentina, China, Germany, France, Indonesia, Malaysia, Spain and Thailand from F.O. Licht, “Biodiesel: World Production, by Country,” 2016, with permission from F.O. Licht / Licht Interactive Data; biodiesel data for Belgium, Canada, Colombia, India, the Netherlands and Singapore from IEA, op. cit. note 4; biodiesel data for United States from US EIA, Monthly Energy Review (Washington, DC: April 2016), Table 10.4, http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/archive/00351604. pdf; biodiesel data for Brazil from Brazil Ministry of Mines and Energy, based on Ministry of Agriculture statistics, http://www. anp.gov.br/?dw=8740. Preliminary 2014 data that appeared in GSR 2015 have been updated where possible. Netherlands HVO production assumes that the Neste Oil facility in Rotterdam produced the same amount of HVO as in prior years, with data from F.O. Licht, 2015. 48 Breakdown based on country analysis; see Endnote 47. Figure 9 based on idem. 49 All fuel ethanol data from F.O. Licht, “Fuel Ethanol: World Production by Country,” op. cit. note 47. 50 US EIA, “Petroleum and other liquids. Weekly US oxygenate plant production of fuel ethanol,” https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/ reports.cfm#/T214, viewed 10 May 2016. 51 As the amount of gasoline in the market grows, so does the opportunity to add additional ethanol to maintain a 10% share of the total gasoline volume. The “blend wall” is the maximum amount of ethanol that can be blended into gasoline which is compatible with use of ethanol/gasoline blends in the current vehicle fleet. This depends on the levels which are covered by national standards or, for example, by the warranties for vehicles and customer acceptance. The technical limit is a matter of some debate amongst experts and industry spokesmen. It is possible to go beyond this notional limit, for example by adopting measures to encourage vehicles which can tolerate a higher level of ethanol (such as “flex-fuel” vehicles common in Brazil, Sweden and some other countries). 52 Brazil Ministry of Mines and Energy, based on Ministry of Agriculture statistics, “Acompanhamento da produção sucroalcooleira,” http://www.agricultura. gov.br/desenvolvimento-sustentavel/agroenergia/ acompanhamento-producao-canavieira. 53 Statistics Portal, “Total bioethanol production in Canada from 2007 to 2016 (in million liters),” http://www.statista.com/ statistics/485378/total-ethanol-canadian-fuel-productionforecast/, viewed 15 March 2016. 54 Andrew Anderson-Sprecher and Jiang Junyang, People’s Republic of China Biofuels Annual: China’s 2014 Fuel Ethanol Production Is Forecast to Increase Six Percent (Washington, DC: US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN), 4 November 2014), http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Recent%20GAIN%20 Publications/Biofuels%20Annual_Beijing_China%20-%20 Peoples%20Republic%20of_11-4-2014.pdf. 55 Market expansion has been achieved through a range of subsidies, for example for ethanol fuel distribution infrastructure and tax incentives for flex-fuel vehicles, from Sakchai Preechajarn and Ponnarong Prasertsri, Thailand Biofuels Annual 2015 (Washington, DC: USDA FAS, GAIN, 13 July 2015), http://gain. fas.usda.gov/Recent%20GAIN%20Publications/Biofuels%20 Annual_Bangkok_Thailand_7-13-2015.pdf. 56 F.O. Licht, “Fuel Ethanol: World Production by Country,” op. cit. note 47. 57 Ibid. 58 Ibid.; IEA, op. cit. note 4. 59 Biodiesel data for Argentina, China, France, Germany, Indonesia, Malaysia, Spain and Thailand from F.O. Licht, “Biodiesel: World Production, by Country,” op. cit. note 47; biodiesel data for Belgium, Canada, Colombia, India, the Netherlands and Singapore from IEA, op. cit. note 4; biodiesel data for United States from US EIA, op. cit. note 47; biodiesel data for Brazil from Brazil Ministry of Mines and Energy, op. cit. note 47. Preliminary 2014 data that appeared in GSR 2015 have been updated where possible. 60 US EIA, op. cit. note 47. 61 Brazil Ministry of Mines and Energy, op. cit. note 47. 62 IEA, op. cit. note 4. 63 F.O. Licht, “Biodiesel: World Production, by Country,” op. cit. note 47. 64 “Argentina’s biodiesel production expected to fall 30% in 2015,” Biofuels International, 4 November 2015, http://biofuels-news.com/display_news/9837/ argentinas_biodiesel_production_expected_to_fall_30_in_2015/. 65 Based on data in Endnote 59. 66 F.O. Licht, “Biodiesel: World Production, by Country,” op. cit. note 47. 67 Ibid. 68 Ibid. 69 Ibid. 70 Ibid. 71 EBA, op. cit. note 35. 72 Conversion factor based on EurObserv’ER, op. cit. note 22, calorific value of methane 39.8 GJ/tonne. 73 Globally, in 2014 (the latest year for which data are available), there were over 10 industrial improved cook stove manufacturers with annual sales of over 100,000 units and over 40 with annual sales above 20,000 units – a major leap in scale and sophistication for the sector in just a few years, from World Bank Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP), The State of the Global Clean and Improved Cooking Sector (Washington, DC: 2015), https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/ bitstream/handle/10986/21878/96499.pdf. 74 For example, a straw-fired power plant being constructed in 2015 at Snetterton in the east of England will use straw provided by farmers within a 30–40 mile (48–64 kilometre) radius, from Chris Hill, “Construction work starts on £160m straw-fired power plant at Snetterton,” Eastern Daily Press, 20 January 2015, http:// www.edp24.co.uk/business/farming/construction_work_starts_ on_160m_straw_fired_power_plant_at_snetterton_1_3923009. 75 IEA, Bioenergy for Heat and Power Roadmap, op. cit. note 3. 76 AEBIOM, 2015 Statistical Report (Brussels: 2015), http://www. aebiom.org/library/statistical-reports/statistical-report-2015/. 77 Argus Media, “Biomass leaders’ predictions for the industry 2015,” http://www.argusmedia.com/events/argus-events/europe/ argus-euro-biomass/2016-ebook-web/. 78 Based on US Census Bureau Trade Data, from Patrick Lamers, Idaho National Laboratory, personal communication with REN 21, 3 March 2016. 79 Drax, “Drax’s Baton Rouge port facility opens for business,” press release (Baton Rouge, LA: 4 April 2015), http://www.drax.com/ news/news-articles/2015/04/draxs-baton-rouge-port-facilityopens-for-business/#sthash.80lj452p.dpuf. 80 Statistics Canada, Canadian International Merchandise Trade Database, “Table 980-0044: Domestic exports – Wood and articles of wood; wood charcoal,” http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/ cimt-cicm/home-accueil?lang=eng&fpv=1130. Pellet sales from Canada to the UK rose by over 20% to 1.2 million tonnes, and to Japan rose by some 40% between 2014 and 2015. Canadian exports to Italy (0.85 million tonnes) decreased by 59%, and those to the Republic of Korea also declined significantly in 2015. 81 Argus Media, op. cit. note 77. 82 AEBIOM, op. cit. note 76. 83 Sustainable Biomass Partnership, “What is the Sustainable Biomass Partnership?” http://www. sustainablebiomasspartnership.org, viewed 3 May 2016. 84 Vega Biofuels, “Vega Biofuels signs exclusive agreement for the production of bio-coal,” press release (Norcross, GA: 19 February 2015), http://vegabiofuels.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/ Vega-PR-2-19-15.pdf. 85 Based on US ethanol capacity data from “US Ethanol Plants,” 02 RENEWABLES 2016 · GLOBAL STATUS REPORT 203
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RENEWABLES 2016 GLOBAL STATUS REPOR
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GSR 2016 TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword
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Figures Figure 1. Estimated Renewab
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FOREWORD The year 2015 was an extra
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RENEWABLES GLOBAL STATUS REPORT (GS
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Note: Some individuals have contrib
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Sweden Robert Fischer (University o
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REVIEWERS AND OTHER CONTRIBUTORS Sh
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY GLOBAL OVERVIEW A
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RENEWABLE ENERGY INDICATORS 2015 IN
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TOP FIVE COUNTRIES Annual investmen
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SOLAR PV: Record deployment and rap
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INVESTMENT FLOWS A new record high;
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01 GLOBAL OVERVIEW The year 2015 wa
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markets, policy changes and uncerta
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Sidebar 1. Regional Spotlight: Sout
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Figure 4. Renewable Power Capacitie
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also are growing, as are wind turbi
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n Latin America: Biomass-based heat
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n Africa: Although biofuel producti
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JOBS IN RENEWABLE ENERGY Table 1. E
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02 MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRENDS BIOMA
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BIOMASS ENERGY Figure 7. Shares of
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China, the third largest ethanol pr
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concluded long-term offtake agreeme
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GEOTHERMAL POWER Figure XX. Figure
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GEOTHERMAL INDUSTRY Low natural gas
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HYDROPOWER Figure 12. Hydropower Gl
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OCEAN ENERGY OCEAN ENERGY MARKETS O
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Country of Spain, the first commerc
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7.3 GW was installed, for a total o
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Figure 16. Solar PV Capacity and Ad
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SOLAR PV INDUSTRY The solar PV indu
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Sharp - in the storage market by in
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CSP INDUSTRY It was a watershed yea
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SOLAR THERMAL HEATING AND COOLING F
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SOLAR THERMAL HEATING/COOLING INDUS
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WIND POWER WIND POWER MARKETS Wind
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WIND POWER Figure 23. Wind Power Gl
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WIND POWER INDUSTRY The wind power
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Sidebar 3. Renewable Power Technolo
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Investment Cost R USD min max wa Ca
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Investment Cost R USD min max wa Ca
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03 DISTRIBUTED RENEWABLE ENERGY FOR
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through renewables-based mini-grids
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India Tanzania Kenya Ethiopia 661,6
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INVESTMENT AND FINANCING The year 2
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The market for PAYG solar - micro-p
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in 2015. In 2014, GACC projected th
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04 INVESTMENT FLOWS Global new inve
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INVESTMENT BY ECONOMY The shift in
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INVESTMENT BY TECHNOLOGY Solar powe
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SOURCES OF INVESTMENT Debt makes up
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05 POLICY LANDSCAPE Nearly all coun
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spearheaded by UNIDO, is designed t
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Specific commitments to renewable h
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Figure 39. Countries with Renewable
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Three US states took steps to expan
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volume requirements that were an in
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Table 4. Renewable Energy Support P
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Table 4. Renewable Energy Support P
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06 ENERGY EFFICIENCY GLOBAL OVERVIE
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MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRENDS BUILDING
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States, new dishwashers use 40% les
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1990 and 2008, design-related effic
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The Green Climate Fund included in
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appliances, and the country also ha
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07 FEATURE: COMMUNITY RENEWABLE ENE
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ORGANISATIONAL STRUCTURES Organisat
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e a successful means for addressing
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Table R2. Renewable Electric Power
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Table R4. Geothermal Power Global C
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Table R6. Solar PV Global Capacity
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Table R8. Solar Water Heating Colle
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Table R10. Electricity Access by Re
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Page 153 and 154: Table R11. Population Relying on Tr
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Page 159 and 160: Table R13. Networks Furthering Ener
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Page 169 and 170: Table R18. Renewable Energy Targets
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Page 247 and 248: ENDNOTES 05 POLICY LANDSCAPE POLICY
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ENDNOTES 06 ENERGY EFFICIENCY blog_
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ENDNOTES 06 ENERGY EFFICIENCY go.jp
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ENDNOTES 07 FEATURE Programme, 2013
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ENDNOTES REFERENCE TABLES 2016); so
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ENDNOTES REFERENCE TABLES FTI Consu
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NOTES 4. Bio-power Data Given exist
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GLOSSARY projects vary in technolog
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GLOSSARY Labelling. System in which
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GLOSSARY Vehicle fuel standards. Ru
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PHOTO CREDITS page 9 SAIREC, South
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