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ENDNOTES 02 MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRENDS - BIOMASS ENERGY
heat estimate is based on an extrapolation assuming a continuing
rate of growth at historical levels (2000–11) of 1.3%/year, up from
8 EJ/year in 2011, from Anselm Eisentraut and Adam Brown,
Heating Without Global Warming: Market Developments and
Policy Considerations for Renewable Heat (Paris: IEA, 2014), p. 30,
http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/
heating-without-global-warming.html. The estimate of modern
bioenergy use in buildings is calculated as the difference between
the industrial and the total modern bioenergy demand.
17 Estimate based on the following: 297 GWth of bioenergy heat
plant capacity installed as of 2008, from Chum et al., op. cit. note
13. Projections based on this number have been made for past
GSRs. The combination of the Chum et al. data, plus past GSR
projections, was used to estimate 2014 values of 305 GWth using
a linear regression. The 2015 value presented here assumes a
3.5% growth rate from that 305 GW th
value, based on the same
percent increase for modern heat generation as presented in
IEA, op. cit. note 4, p. 242. Note that accurate heat data, including
from bioenergy, are very difficult to obtain as most capacity
installations and output are not metered. Even if plant capacities
are known, there often is no knowledge of whether a 1 MWth plant,
for example, is used for 80 hours or 8,000 hours per year.
18 Eisentraut and Brown, op. cit. note 16.
19 Ibid.
20 Ibid.
21 Ibid.
22 Based on data in IEA, op. cit. note 4 and in EurObserv’ER, Solid
Biomass Barometer (Paris: 2015), http://www.eurobserv-er.org/
category/all-solid-biomass-barometers/.
23 Each EU Member State is obligated under the Renewable Energy
Directive to develop renewable energy to meet a mandatory
national target for 2020 for the share of renewables in final energy
consumption. To achieve this, each country has prepared a
National Renewable Energy Action Plan that includes measures
to promote renewable heat. This is leading to growing efforts
to encourage renewable heating, which comes primarily from
biomass.
24 Pellets Forum, “Pellets industry discusses current legal
framework and market prospects,” press release (Munich: 20 July
2015), http://www.pelletsforum.de/index.php?id=763&L=1&tx_
ttnews%5Byear%5D=2015&tx_ttnews%5Bmonth%5D=07&tx_
ttnews%5Bday%5D=20&tx_ttnews%5Btt_
news%5D=1732&cHash=b354dfcec68e49d2dfbc0c4f98fbc451.
25 Notably in the large cities of Kaunas, Jonava and Moletai.
See Lithuanian Biomass Energy Association (LITBIOMA)
and European Biomass Association (AEBIOM), “Biomass in
Lithuanian Heat Sector – Benefits and the Future,” presentation,
29 September 2015, http://www.lsta.lt/files/events/2015-09-29_
Danijos%20ambasados%20renginys/03_LITBIOMA%20V.%20
Gaubyte%20EN.pdf.
26 US EIA, “Increase in wood as main source of household heating
most notable in the Northeast,” Today in Energy, 17 March 2014.
27 Bruce Dorminey, “Low heating oil prices depress domestic wood
pellet market,” Renewable Energy World, 29 February 2016,
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2016/02/lowheating-oil-prices-depress-domestic-wood-pellet-market.html.
28 Eisentraut and Brown, op. cit. note 16, p. 31.
29 European Commission Intelligent Energy Europe Projects
Database, “Development of sustainable heat markets for biogas
plants in Europe (BIOGASHEAT),” https://ec.europa.eu/energy/
intelligent/projects/en/projects/biogasheat, viewed 13 May 2016.
30 Xia Zuzhang, China’s Domestic Biogas Sector Must Adjust
to Changing Conditions (London: International Institute for
Environment and Development, January 2014), http://pubs.
iied.org/pdfs/17185IIED.pdf; MNRE, “Physical progress
(achievements),” http://www.mnre.gov.in/mission-and-vision-2/
achievements, viewed 1 February 2016.
31 Bio-electricity capacity data based on the 2015 forecast data in
IEA, op. cit. note 4, except for the following: US capacity data
based on US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC),
“Office of Energy Projects Energy Infrastructure Update for
December 2015,” http://www.ferc.gov/legal/staff-reports/2015/
dec-infrastructure.pdf; Brazilian Electricity Regulatory Agency
(ANEEL), “Banco de informacoes de geração,” http://www2.
aneel.gov.br/aplicacoes/capacidadebrasil/capacidadebrasil.
cfm, viewed 9 May 2016; China National Renewable Energy
Centre, provided by Amanda Zhang, Chinese Renewable Energy
Industries Association (CREIA), personal communication with
REN21, 26 April 2016; Germany preliminary statistics from BMWi,
op. cit. note 10; United Kingdom from UK DECC, op. cit. note 10;
India from MNRE, op. cit. note 10; Japan from Hironao Matsubara,
Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies (ISEP), Tokyo, Japan,
personal communication with REN21, 10 April 2016. Bio-electricity
generation statistics based on 2015 forecast data from IEA, op.
cit. note 4, except for the following: US data from US EIA, op. cit.
note 10, corrected for difference between net and gross electricity
generation; Germany preliminary statistics from BMWi, op. cit.
note 10; United Kingdom from UK DECC, op. cit. note 10; India
from MNRE, op. cit. note 10.
32 Figure 8 based on IEA data for 2005–13, from IEA, op. cit. note
6, and on REN21 analysis of generation for 2013 and 2014 (p see
Endnote 31).
33 Capacity data based on FERC, op. cit. note 31; US generation
based on data in US EIA, op. cit. note 10.
34 For example, plants that have been using almond tree wastes
to produce electricity in California are threatened with closure,
prompting problems with disposing of the residues from almond
orchards, from Geoffrey Mohan, ”Solar is in, biomass energy is
out – and farmers are struggling to dispose of woody waste,”
Los Angeles Times, 31 December 2015, http://www.latimes.com/
business/la-fi-biomass-closing-20160101-story.html.
35 Europe is the leading market for production of electricity from
biogas and bio-methane. As of early 2015, the region had more
than 17,000 biogas plants and nearly 400 bio-methane plants in
operation, with power generating capacity exceeding 8 GW,
from European Biogas Association (EBA), Biogas Report 2015
(Brussels: December 2015), http://european-biogas.
eu/2015/12/16/biogasreport2015/.
36 Preliminary statistics from BMWi, op. cit. note 10. Growth in
biomass energy capacity in Germany, based largely on biogas,
has slowed due to a cap on newly installed bioenergy plants
from 2015 onwards, set in the Renewable Sources Act (EEG)
2014. Feed-in tariffs also have been lowered. The only new
installations are small-scale biogas installations under 75 kW
based on more than 80% manure. The increase in output is due
to the more flexible generation from biogas plants in order to
produce electricity when the wind and sun are not providing
generation, per Julie Münch, Fachverband Biogas e.V., personal
communication with REN21, 8 April 2016.
37 Münch, op. cit. note 36.
38 Generation increased to 29.0 TWh, and capacity rose by 625 MW,
reaching nearly 5.2 GW. Based on UK DECC, op. cit. note 10.
39 Drax, “Drax set to become largest single renewable generator in
the UK,” press release (Selby, North Yorkshire, UK: 9 December
2013), http://www.drax.com/news/news-articles/2013/12/draxset-to-become-largest-single-renewable-generator-in-the-uk/.
40 Growth in electricity generation from biogas was particularly
strong in the UK, with 65 MW of new capacity commissioned
under the feed-in tariff scheme, bringing total installed capacity
to 282 MW with a further 1,274 MW of capacity from landfill
gas and sewage gas already in place. UK Office of Gas and
Electricity Markets, Feed-in Tariff (FIT): Quarterly Report, 1 March
2016, https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/system/files/docs/2016/03/
feed-in_tariff_fit_quarterly_report_-_issue_23.pdf.
41 China National Renewable Energy Centre, op. cit. note 31.
42 Estimated based on capacity figure of 10.3 GW.
43 Abbie Clare et al., “Should China subsidize cofiring to meet its
2020 bioenergy target? A spatio-techno-economic analysis,”
Global Change Biology – Bioenergy, vol. 8, no. 3 (May 2015), pp.
550–60, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcbb.12264/
abstract.
44 Matsubara, op. cit. note 31. Bio-electricity expansion is fuelled
mainly by forestry products including imported chips and pellets
and palm kernel shells. The domestic supply chain of chip from
forestry is so far limited and high-cost.
45 MNRE, op. cit. note 10.
46 New projects with a capacity of 389 MW were awarded PPAs in
April 2015 and are expected to be constructed and brought into
operation between 2018 and 2019. See IEA and International
Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) Policies & Measures
202