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ENDNOTES 01 GLOBAL OVERVIEW
76 See Market and Industry Trends chapter, Reference Table R1 and
related endnotes for details.
77 Ibid.
78 Ibid.
79 Tom Randall, “Fossil fuels just lost the race against renewables,”
Bloomberg, 14 April 2015,
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-14/
fossil-fuels-just-lost-the-race-against-renewables.
80 Share of net additions from an estimate of 62.5%, based on a total
of approximately 147.5 GW of renewable capacity added (net),
as noted in this report, and on assumed combined net additions
of 88.5 GW nuclear and fossil fuel capacity, for a total of 235.7
GW global net additions, of which renewables account for nearly
62.5%. Nuclear and fossil fuel estimate based on the following:
net capacity additions of 42 GW coal and 40 GW natural gas,
from FS–UNEP Centre and BNEF, op. cit. note 41, p. 31. Note
that there also were (unspecified) net reductions in oil-fired
generating capacity that are not included in these calculations.
Net nuclear capacity increase of 6.52 GW based on year-end 2014
and year-end 2015 cumulative capacity, from International Atomic
Energy Agency, “Nuclear power capacity trends,” PRIS Database,
http://www.iaea.org/pris/, updated 27 April 2016. For more detail
on renewable power generating capacity, see Reference Table R1,
technology sections in Market and Industry Trends chapter and
related endnotes. Note that some hydropower capacity added
may have been for refurbishment of existing plants; however, even
if half of hydropower capacity additions were assumed to be net
(replacement), and not included, the renewable energy share of
total (net) additions is 60%.
81 Renewable share of total global electric generating capacity
is based on an estimated renewable total of nearly 1,849 GW
at end-2015 (see Reference Table R1 and related endnote for
details and sources) and on total global electric capacity in the
range of 6,399 GW. Estimated total global capacity for end-2015
is based on 2014 total of 6,163 GW, from IEA, op. cit. note 2, p.
311; on about 235.7 GW of net power capacity additions in 2015,
as outlined in Endnote 80. Share of generation based on the
following: Total global electricity generation in 2015 is estimated
at 23,741 TWh, based on 23,536.5 TWh in 2014 from BP, op. cit.
note 31, and on an estimated 0.87% growth in global electricity
generation for 2015. The growth rate is based on the weighted
average actual change in total generation for the following
countries (which together account for nearly two-thirds of global
generation in 2014): United States (-0.15% net generation),
EU-28 (+2.46% gross generation for the first 11 months of
each year), Russian Federation (+0.2%), India (+3.76%), China
(+0.5%) and Brazil (-0.13%). Sources for 2014 and 2015 total
electricity generation by country are: US EIA, op. cit. note 31,
Table 1.1; European Commission, Eurostat database, http://
ec.europa.eu/eurostat; System Operator of the Unified Power
System of Russian Federation, www.so-ups.ru; Government of
India, Ministry of Power, Central Electricity Authority, “Monthly
Generation Report,” www.cea.nic.in/monthlyarchive.html; CNEA,
“National Electric Power Statistics,” http://www.nea.gov.cn/2016-
01/15/c_135013789.htm; National Operator of the Electrical
System of Brazil (ONS), “Geração de Energia,” http://www.ons.
org.br/historico/geracao_energia.aspx. Hydropower generation
in 2015 is estimated at 3,940 TWh, based on 2014 hydropower
output of 3,885 TWh from BP, op. cit. note 31, as well as observed
average year-on-year change in output (+1.4%) for many top
producing countries (China, Brazil, Canada, the United States,
the EU-28, Russian Federation, India, Norway, Turkey, Japan
and Mexico), which together accounted for over three-fourths of
global hydropower output in 2014. Hydropower generation from
country sources as follows: US EIA, op. cit. this note; Statistics
Canada, http://www5.statcan.gc.ca; European Commission, op.
cit. this note; Statistics Norway, www.ssb.no; ONS, op. cit. this
note; System Operator of the Unified Power System of Russia, op.
cit. this note; Government of India, op. cit. this note; CNEA, op.
cit. this note; Turkish Electricity Transmission Company, http://
www.teias.gov.tr ; Emi Ichiyanagi, Japan Renewable Energy
Foundation (JREF), based on data from Japan’s Agency for Natural
Resources and Energy, personal communication with REN21,
March 2016; Mexico’s Secretary of Energy (Secretaría de Energía),
"Prospectiva de Energías Renovables 2015-2029," http://www.
gob.mx/cms/uploads/attachment/file/44324/Prospectiva_
Energ_as_Renovables_2015_-_2029_VF_22.12.15.pdf. Sources for
non-hydro renewable generation of 1,693 TWh in 2015 are detailed
by technology in the Market and Industry Trends chapter. Figure 3
based on idem.
82 IEA, Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2015, op. cit
note 31, p. 131.
83 Adnan Z. Amin, “The falling costs of renewable energy: no more
excuses,” Huffington Post, 30 November 2015, http://www.
huffingtonpost.com/adnan-z-amin/post_10557_b_8600240.html;
Jessika Trancik et al., Technology Improvement and Emissions
Reductions as Mutually Reinforcing Efforts: Observations from
the Global Development of Solar and Wind Energy (Cambridge,
MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, November
2015), p. 6, http://trancik.scripts.mit.edu/home/wp-content/
uploads/2015/11/Trancik_INDCReport.pdf.
84 Mexico, New Zealand, Turkey, and parts of Australia, China
and the United States from Steve Sawyer, GWEC, personal
communication with REN21, 29 October 2015; Canadian Wind
Energy Association (CanWEA), “Wind energy continues rapid
growth in Canada in 2015,” press release (Ottawa: 12 January
2016), http://canwea.ca/wind-energy-continues-rapid-growthin-canada-in-2015/;
South Africa from GWEC, “Wind energy has
saved South Africa R1.8 billion more than it cost for first half of
2015 – and it’s cash positive for Eskom,” undated, http://www.
gwec.net/wind-energy-has-saved-south-africa-r1-8-billionmore-than-it-cost-for-first-half-of-2015-and-its-cash-positivefor-eskom/,
and from Joanne Calitz, Crescent Mushwana, and
Tobias Bischhof-Niemz, “Financial benefits of renewables in
Africa in 2015,” CSIR Energy Centre, 14 August 2015, http://
www.csir.co.za/media_releases/docs/Financial%20benefits%20
of%20Wind%20and%20PV%202015.pdf; United States also
from “Wind power now cheaper than natural gas for Xcel, CEO
says,” Renewable Energy World, 27 October 2015, http://www.
renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2015/10/wind-power-nowcheaper-than-natural-gas-for-xcel-ceo-says,
and from Ryan
Wiser et al., 2014 Wind Technologies Market Report, prepared
for US DOE, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy
(EERE) (Berkeley, CA: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory,
August 2015), p. viii, http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2015/08/
f25/2014-Wind-Technologies-Market-Report-8.7.pdf. See also
IEA, op. cit. note 36, p. 81.
85 Wind in Egypt, Mexico, Morocco and Peru from Steve Sawyer,
GWEC, personal communication with REN21, 20 April 2016, and
from Steve Sawyer, “Global wind energy insight: wind leading the
charge in transformation of power system,” Renewable Energy
World, 19 April 2016, http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/
articles/2016/04/global-wind-energy-insight-wind-leading-thecharge-in-transformation-of-power-system.html.
Morocco’s
Vice-Minister for Energy and Environment, Abderrahim El Hafidi,
made an announcement about the winner of the country’s recent
850 MW wind tender, in which the winning price was about
USD 0.03/kWh (about EUR 0.028), making it cheaper to build
wind than an (unmitigated) coal plant, even if coal were free,
from Steve Sawyer, GWEC, personal communication with REN21,
26 January 2016. The bidders will take advantage of Morocco’s
coastal exposure to the North Atlantic trade winds, from idem.
In India, the winning bid during a solar auction prompted the
country’s energy minister to declare solar energy cheaper than
coal-fired generation, from Piyush Goyal on 19 January 2016, cited
in Kunal Anand, “For the first time In modern India’s history, solar
energy is cheaper than coal,” India Times, 27 January 2016, http://
www.indiatimes.com/news/india/for-the-first-time-in-modernindia-s-history-solar-energy-is-cheaper-than-coal-249907.html,
and from Giles Parkinson, “India energy minister says solar power
now cheaper than coal,” RenewEconomy, 21 January 2016, http://
reneweconomy.com.au/2016/india-energy-minister-says-solarpower-now-cheaper-coal-29756.
A recent government auction
in India’s sunny state of Rajasthan put the winning solar bid at
roughly the same price as recent coal projects, from Huizhong
Wu, “India’s big move into solar is already paying off,” CNN, 7
March 2016, http://money.cnn.com/2016/03/07/technology/
india-solar-energy-coal/. In Mexico, solar bids in March 2016
averaged USD 40.5/MWh, from Vanessa Dezem and Adam
Williams, “Mexico first power auction awards 1,720 MW of wind,
solar,” Renewable Energy World, 30 March 2016, http://www.
renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2016/03/mexico-first-powerauction-awards-1-720-mw-of-wind-solar.html.
In Peru, the fourth
auction for renewable generation led to 13 awarded projects, with
99% of the annual energy required covered, from a total of 111
participants. The average price obtained was 22% below current
conventional energy price in Peru, from Lucas Furlano, Fundación
Bariloche, Argentina, personal communication with REN21, 5
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