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ENDNOTES 01 GLOBAL OVERVIEW 54 IEA, op. cit. note 2, p. 344; Sargsyan, op. cit. note 1. Based on internal changes at the World Bank as well as experience with various countries. See also Market and Industry Trends chapter. 55 See Market and Industry Trends chapter. 56 Brazil, India and Mexico from Hinrichs-Rahlwes, op. cit. note 14; Chile, Mexico, Morocco and South Africa from BNEF, “Clean energy defies fossil fuel price crash to attract record $329bn global investment in 2015,” press release (London and New York: 14 January 2016), http://about.bnef.com/press-releases/cleanenergy-defies-fossil-fuel-price-crash-to-attract-record-329bnglobal-investment-in-2015/; Chris Mooney, “This will give you hope: developing countries are racing to install wind and solar,” Washington Post, 19 May 2015, http://www.washingtonpost.com/ news/energy-environment/wp/2015/05/19/this-will-give-youhope-developing-countries-are-racing-to-install-wind-and-solar/. See also Market and Industry Trends chapter. 57 IRENA, Renewable Energy and Jobs – Annual Review 2016 (Abu Dhabi: 2016). Sidebar 2 from idem. 58 BNEF, op. cit. note 56. 59 FS–UNEP Centre and BNEF, op. cit. note 41. 60 Ibid. 61 See, for example, Katie Fehrenbacher, “Goldman Sachs to invest $150 billion in clean energy,” Fortune, 2 November 2015, http://fortune.com/2015/11/02/goldman-sachs-clean-energy/; divestment from EESI, op. cit. note 24. 62 Frankl, op. cit. note 1; backing away from coal also from McCrone, op. cit. note 3; 25x’25, “Major global insurer enters US renewables market,” Weekly REsource, 12 February 2016, http://www.25x25.org/index. php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1331&Itemid=246. 63 Twenty banks loaned more than USD 1 billion, compared to 12 banks in 2014, from Thomas Emmons, Rabobank, cited in Jennifer Runyon, “Renewable energy finance outlook 2016: the year of the green dollar,” Renewable Energy World, 10 February 2016, http:// www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2016/02/renewableenergy-finance-outlook-2016-the-year-of-the-green-dollar. Major new commitments from investment firms from, for example, Fehrenbacher, op. cit. note 61. Goldman Sachs announced “plans to invest USD150 billion in clean energy projects and technology like solar and wind farms, energy efficiency upgrades for buildings, and power grid infrastructure” by 2025 (up from a target of USD 40 billion by 2012), and will also seek to finance clean energy for developing world, from idem. 64 Richard Taylor, IHA, personal communication with REN21, 7 October 2015. Note that green bond issuance increased from USD 2.6 billion in 2012 to USD 41.8 billion in 2015. Renewable energy accounted for 45.8% of 2015 green bond proceeds, followed by energy efficiency with 19.6% and low-carbon transport with 13.4%, from Michael Hofmann, Member, Inter- American Development Bank, Multilateral Investment Fund, personal communication with REN21, 7 April 2016. See also FS– UNEP Centre and BNEF, op. cit. note 41, p. 43. Major challenge from Heymi Bahar, IEA, personal communication with REN21, 8 February 2016. 65 Raj Prabhu, Mercom, cited in Runyon, op. cit. note 63. 66 Ferroukhi, op. cit. note 1; Katherine Tweed, “Bigger risk, bigger returns in renewable energy’s emerging markets,” Greentech Media, 20 April 2016, http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/ read/Bigger-Risk-Bigger-Returns-in-Renewable-Energys- Emerging-Markets. 67 FS–UNEP Centre and BNEF, op. cit. note 41. 68 Ibid., p. 23. 69 Based on investment data for 2015 from Ibid.; GDP at purchaser’s prices for 2014 from World Bank, “Gross domestic product 2014,” World Development Indicators, http://data.worldbank.org/ indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD, viewed 25 April 2016. 70 Population data for 2014 from World Bank, “Population, total,” World Development Indicators, http://data.worldbank.org/ indicator/SP.POP.TOTL, viewed 10 March 2016. See Investment Flows chapter for more on BNEF investment data. Note that data on small distributed capacity (solar PV
ENDNOTES 01 GLOBAL OVERVIEW 76 See Market and Industry Trends chapter, Reference Table R1 and related endnotes for details. 77 Ibid. 78 Ibid. 79 Tom Randall, “Fossil fuels just lost the race against renewables,” Bloomberg, 14 April 2015, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-14/ fossil-fuels-just-lost-the-race-against-renewables. 80 Share of net additions from an estimate of 62.5%, based on a total of approximately 147.5 GW of renewable capacity added (net), as noted in this report, and on assumed combined net additions of 88.5 GW nuclear and fossil fuel capacity, for a total of 235.7 GW global net additions, of which renewables account for nearly 62.5%. Nuclear and fossil fuel estimate based on the following: net capacity additions of 42 GW coal and 40 GW natural gas, from FS–UNEP Centre and BNEF, op. cit. note 41, p. 31. Note that there also were (unspecified) net reductions in oil-fired generating capacity that are not included in these calculations. Net nuclear capacity increase of 6.52 GW based on year-end 2014 and year-end 2015 cumulative capacity, from International Atomic Energy Agency, “Nuclear power capacity trends,” PRIS Database, http://www.iaea.org/pris/, updated 27 April 2016. For more detail on renewable power generating capacity, see Reference Table R1, technology sections in Market and Industry Trends chapter and related endnotes. Note that some hydropower capacity added may have been for refurbishment of existing plants; however, even if half of hydropower capacity additions were assumed to be net (replacement), and not included, the renewable energy share of total (net) additions is 60%. 81 Renewable share of total global electric generating capacity is based on an estimated renewable total of nearly 1,849 GW at end-2015 (see Reference Table R1 and related endnote for details and sources) and on total global electric capacity in the range of 6,399 GW. Estimated total global capacity for end-2015 is based on 2014 total of 6,163 GW, from IEA, op. cit. note 2, p. 311; on about 235.7 GW of net power capacity additions in 2015, as outlined in Endnote 80. Share of generation based on the following: Total global electricity generation in 2015 is estimated at 23,741 TWh, based on 23,536.5 TWh in 2014 from BP, op. cit. note 31, and on an estimated 0.87% growth in global electricity generation for 2015. The growth rate is based on the weighted average actual change in total generation for the following countries (which together account for nearly two-thirds of global generation in 2014): United States (-0.15% net generation), EU-28 (+2.46% gross generation for the first 11 months of each year), Russian Federation (+0.2%), India (+3.76%), China (+0.5%) and Brazil (-0.13%). Sources for 2014 and 2015 total electricity generation by country are: US EIA, op. cit. note 31, Table 1.1; European Commission, Eurostat database, http:// ec.europa.eu/eurostat; System Operator of the Unified Power System of Russian Federation, www.so-ups.ru; Government of India, Ministry of Power, Central Electricity Authority, “Monthly Generation Report,” www.cea.nic.in/monthlyarchive.html; CNEA, “National Electric Power Statistics,” http://www.nea.gov.cn/2016- 01/15/c_135013789.htm; National Operator of the Electrical System of Brazil (ONS), “Geração de Energia,” http://www.ons. org.br/historico/geracao_energia.aspx. Hydropower generation in 2015 is estimated at 3,940 TWh, based on 2014 hydropower output of 3,885 TWh from BP, op. cit. note 31, as well as observed average year-on-year change in output (+1.4%) for many top producing countries (China, Brazil, Canada, the United States, the EU-28, Russian Federation, India, Norway, Turkey, Japan and Mexico), which together accounted for over three-fourths of global hydropower output in 2014. Hydropower generation from country sources as follows: US EIA, op. cit. this note; Statistics Canada, http://www5.statcan.gc.ca; European Commission, op. cit. this note; Statistics Norway, www.ssb.no; ONS, op. cit. this note; System Operator of the Unified Power System of Russia, op. cit. this note; Government of India, op. cit. this note; CNEA, op. cit. this note; Turkish Electricity Transmission Company, http:// www.teias.gov.tr ; Emi Ichiyanagi, Japan Renewable Energy Foundation (JREF), based on data from Japan’s Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, personal communication with REN21, March 2016; Mexico’s Secretary of Energy (Secretaría de Energía), "Prospectiva de Energías Renovables 2015-2029," http://www. gob.mx/cms/uploads/attachment/file/44324/Prospectiva_ Energ_as_Renovables_2015_-_2029_VF_22.12.15.pdf. Sources for non-hydro renewable generation of 1,693 TWh in 2015 are detailed by technology in the Market and Industry Trends chapter. Figure 3 based on idem. 82 IEA, Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2015, op. cit note 31, p. 131. 83 Adnan Z. Amin, “The falling costs of renewable energy: no more excuses,” Huffington Post, 30 November 2015, http://www. huffingtonpost.com/adnan-z-amin/post_10557_b_8600240.html; Jessika Trancik et al., Technology Improvement and Emissions Reductions as Mutually Reinforcing Efforts: Observations from the Global Development of Solar and Wind Energy (Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, November 2015), p. 6, http://trancik.scripts.mit.edu/home/wp-content/ uploads/2015/11/Trancik_INDCReport.pdf. 84 Mexico, New Zealand, Turkey, and parts of Australia, China and the United States from Steve Sawyer, GWEC, personal communication with REN21, 29 October 2015; Canadian Wind Energy Association (CanWEA), “Wind energy continues rapid growth in Canada in 2015,” press release (Ottawa: 12 January 2016), http://canwea.ca/wind-energy-continues-rapid-growthin-canada-in-2015/; South Africa from GWEC, “Wind energy has saved South Africa R1.8 billion more than it cost for first half of 2015 – and it’s cash positive for Eskom,” undated, http://www. gwec.net/wind-energy-has-saved-south-africa-r1-8-billionmore-than-it-cost-for-first-half-of-2015-and-its-cash-positivefor-eskom/, and from Joanne Calitz, Crescent Mushwana, and Tobias Bischhof-Niemz, “Financial benefits of renewables in Africa in 2015,” CSIR Energy Centre, 14 August 2015, http:// www.csir.co.za/media_releases/docs/Financial%20benefits%20 of%20Wind%20and%20PV%202015.pdf; United States also from “Wind power now cheaper than natural gas for Xcel, CEO says,” Renewable Energy World, 27 October 2015, http://www. renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2015/10/wind-power-nowcheaper-than-natural-gas-for-xcel-ceo-says, and from Ryan Wiser et al., 2014 Wind Technologies Market Report, prepared for US DOE, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (Berkeley, CA: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, August 2015), p. viii, http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2015/08/ f25/2014-Wind-Technologies-Market-Report-8.7.pdf. See also IEA, op. cit. note 36, p. 81. 85 Wind in Egypt, Mexico, Morocco and Peru from Steve Sawyer, GWEC, personal communication with REN21, 20 April 2016, and from Steve Sawyer, “Global wind energy insight: wind leading the charge in transformation of power system,” Renewable Energy World, 19 April 2016, http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/ articles/2016/04/global-wind-energy-insight-wind-leading-thecharge-in-transformation-of-power-system.html. Morocco’s Vice-Minister for Energy and Environment, Abderrahim El Hafidi, made an announcement about the winner of the country’s recent 850 MW wind tender, in which the winning price was about USD 0.03/kWh (about EUR 0.028), making it cheaper to build wind than an (unmitigated) coal plant, even if coal were free, from Steve Sawyer, GWEC, personal communication with REN21, 26 January 2016. The bidders will take advantage of Morocco’s coastal exposure to the North Atlantic trade winds, from idem. In India, the winning bid during a solar auction prompted the country’s energy minister to declare solar energy cheaper than coal-fired generation, from Piyush Goyal on 19 January 2016, cited in Kunal Anand, “For the first time In modern India’s history, solar energy is cheaper than coal,” India Times, 27 January 2016, http:// www.indiatimes.com/news/india/for-the-first-time-in-modernindia-s-history-solar-energy-is-cheaper-than-coal-249907.html, and from Giles Parkinson, “India energy minister says solar power now cheaper than coal,” RenewEconomy, 21 January 2016, http:// reneweconomy.com.au/2016/india-energy-minister-says-solarpower-now-cheaper-coal-29756. A recent government auction in India’s sunny state of Rajasthan put the winning solar bid at roughly the same price as recent coal projects, from Huizhong Wu, “India’s big move into solar is already paying off,” CNN, 7 March 2016, http://money.cnn.com/2016/03/07/technology/ india-solar-energy-coal/. In Mexico, solar bids in March 2016 averaged USD 40.5/MWh, from Vanessa Dezem and Adam Williams, “Mexico first power auction awards 1,720 MW of wind, solar,” Renewable Energy World, 30 March 2016, http://www. renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2016/03/mexico-first-powerauction-awards-1-720-mw-of-wind-solar.html. In Peru, the fourth auction for renewable generation led to 13 awarded projects, with 99% of the annual energy required covered, from a total of 111 participants. The average price obtained was 22% below current conventional energy price in Peru, from Lucas Furlano, Fundación Bariloche, Argentina, personal communication with REN21, 5 01 RENEWABLES 2016 · GLOBAL STATUS REPORT 191
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RENEWABLES 2016 GLOBAL STATUS REPOR
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GSR 2016 TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword
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Figures Figure 1. Estimated Renewab
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FOREWORD The year 2015 was an extra
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RENEWABLES GLOBAL STATUS REPORT (GS
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Note: Some individuals have contrib
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Sweden Robert Fischer (University o
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REVIEWERS AND OTHER CONTRIBUTORS Sh
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY GLOBAL OVERVIEW A
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RENEWABLE ENERGY INDICATORS 2015 IN
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TOP FIVE COUNTRIES Annual investmen
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SOLAR PV: Record deployment and rap
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INVESTMENT FLOWS A new record high;
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01 GLOBAL OVERVIEW The year 2015 wa
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markets, policy changes and uncerta
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Sidebar 1. Regional Spotlight: Sout
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Figure 4. Renewable Power Capacitie
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also are growing, as are wind turbi
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n Latin America: Biomass-based heat
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n Africa: Although biofuel producti
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JOBS IN RENEWABLE ENERGY Table 1. E
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02 MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRENDS BIOMA
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BIOMASS ENERGY Figure 7. Shares of
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China, the third largest ethanol pr
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concluded long-term offtake agreeme
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GEOTHERMAL POWER Figure XX. Figure
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GEOTHERMAL INDUSTRY Low natural gas
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HYDROPOWER Figure 12. Hydropower Gl
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OCEAN ENERGY OCEAN ENERGY MARKETS O
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Country of Spain, the first commerc
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7.3 GW was installed, for a total o
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Figure 16. Solar PV Capacity and Ad
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SOLAR PV INDUSTRY The solar PV indu
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Sharp - in the storage market by in
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CSP INDUSTRY It was a watershed yea
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SOLAR THERMAL HEATING AND COOLING F
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SOLAR THERMAL HEATING/COOLING INDUS
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WIND POWER WIND POWER MARKETS Wind
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WIND POWER Figure 23. Wind Power Gl
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WIND POWER INDUSTRY The wind power
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Sidebar 3. Renewable Power Technolo
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Investment Cost R USD min max wa Ca
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Investment Cost R USD min max wa Ca
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03 DISTRIBUTED RENEWABLE ENERGY FOR
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through renewables-based mini-grids
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India Tanzania Kenya Ethiopia 661,6
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INVESTMENT AND FINANCING The year 2
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The market for PAYG solar - micro-p
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in 2015. In 2014, GACC projected th
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04 INVESTMENT FLOWS Global new inve
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INVESTMENT BY ECONOMY The shift in
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INVESTMENT BY TECHNOLOGY Solar powe
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SOURCES OF INVESTMENT Debt makes up
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05 POLICY LANDSCAPE Nearly all coun
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spearheaded by UNIDO, is designed t
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Specific commitments to renewable h
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Figure 39. Countries with Renewable
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Three US states took steps to expan
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volume requirements that were an in
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Table 4. Renewable Energy Support P
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Table 4. Renewable Energy Support P
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06 ENERGY EFFICIENCY GLOBAL OVERVIE
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MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRENDS BUILDING
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States, new dishwashers use 40% les
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1990 and 2008, design-related effic
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The Green Climate Fund included in
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appliances, and the country also ha
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07 FEATURE: COMMUNITY RENEWABLE ENE
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ORGANISATIONAL STRUCTURES Organisat
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Page 153 and 154: Table R11. Population Relying on Tr
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Page 169 and 170: Table R18. Renewable Energy Targets
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Page 179 and 180: Table R21. Cumulative Number 1 of C
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ENDNOTES 02 MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRE
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ENDNOTES 03 DISTRIBUTED RENEWABLE E
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ENDNOTES 03 DISTRIBUTED RENEWABLE E
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ENDNOTES 05 POLICY LANDSCAPE POLICY
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ENDNOTES 05 POLICY LANDSCAPE “Res
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ENDNOTES 05 POLICY LANDSCAPE 2015,
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ENDNOTES 06 ENERGY EFFICIENCY blog_
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ENDNOTES 06 ENERGY EFFICIENCY go.jp
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ENDNOTES 07 FEATURE Programme, 2013
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ENDNOTES REFERENCE TABLES 2016); so
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ENDNOTES REFERENCE TABLES FTI Consu
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NOTES 4. Bio-power Data Given exist
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GLOSSARY projects vary in technolog
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GLOSSARY Labelling. System in which
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GLOSSARY Vehicle fuel standards. Ru
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PHOTO CREDITS page 9 SAIREC, South
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