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bbc.com/news/business-35397038?ocid=global_bbccom_
email_25012016_business.
42 See, for example: “China to halt new coal mine approvals
amid pollution fight,” Bloomberg, 29 December 2015, http://
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-30/china-tosuspend-new-coal-mine-approvals-amid-pollution-fight;
Jessica Shankleman, “As oil crashed, renewables attracted
record $329 billion,” Bloomberg, 14 January 2016, http://www.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-14/renewables-drewrecord-329-billion-in-year-oil-prices-crashed;
Tim McDonnell,
“Coal companies are dying while their execs grab more cash,”
Mother Jones, 2 September 2015, http://www.motherjones.com/
environment/2015/09/coal-executives-salaries-bonuses-stock.
43 Michael Liebreich, BNEF, cited in Shankleman, op. cit. note 42.
44 McCrone, op. cit. note 3.
45 Ibid. Fred Pearce, “Peak coal: why the industry’s dominance may
soon be over,” Yale e360 Digest, 19 June 2014, http://e360.yale.
edu/feature/peak_coal_why_the_industrys_dominance_may_
soon_be_over/2777/. See also IEA, op. cit. note 2, Executive
Summary.
46 China plans to suspend approval of new mines starting in 2016
and to reduce coal’s share of energy consumption to 62.6%,
down from 64.4% in 2015, per Nur Bekri, China National Energy
Administration (CNEA), reported by Xinhua New Agency and
cited in “China to halt new coal mine approvals amid pollution
fight,” op. cit. note 42; developments in 2015 from CNEA,
idem; China had more than 100 GW of coal-fired power plants
standing idle during 2015, per Institute for Energy Economics and
Financial Analysis, Cleveland, OH, cited in Pearce, op. cit. note
3; another source says that China has nearly 1,000 coal-fired
power plants in various stages of planning and construction,
but that it recently reformed its gas-price system to encourage
a shift away from coal, from “Japan, South Korea stick to coal
plant policies despite global climate deal,” Reuters, 16 December
2015, http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/12/16/national/
science-health/japan-south-korea-stick-coal-plant-policiesdespite-global-climate-deal.
In early 2016, CNEA ordered
13 provincial governments to stop issuing approvals for new
coal-fired power plants until the end of 2015 and told 15 provinces
to stop construction of plants already approved, from “[Heavy]
thermal power encounter ‘wake-up call’: suspend 13 provinces
approved projects, 15 provincial postponed (with thermal power
GLF Roadmap,” Polaris Power Grid, 24 March 2016, http://news.
bjx.com.cn/html/20160324/718971.shtml (using Google Translate).
The region with the highest expected growth rate for coal
consumption is Southeast Asia, from IEA, “Global coal demand
stalls after more than a decade of relentless growth,” press
release (Singapore: 18 December 2015), https://www.iea.org/
newsroomandevents/pressreleases/2015/december/global-coaldemand-stalls-after-more-than-a-decade-of-relentless-growth.
html. For other Asia, see also Pearce, op. cit. note 3, and “Japan,
South Korea stick to coal plant policies despite global climate
deal,” op. cit. this note.
47 For example, the UK announced plans in 2015 to phase out
coal-fired power stations by 2025; Austria, Finland and Portugal
also plan to become coal-free within the next decade, from
James Crisp, “Coal lobby chief: COP21 means ‘we will be hated
like slave traders’,” EurActiv.com, 14 December 2015, http://
www.euractiv.com/sections/energy/coal-lobby-chief-cop21-
means-we-will-be-hated-slave-traders-320424. Sub-national
governments that have committed to phasing out coal include
Ontario, Canada, which achieved its goal in 2014, and the
US state of Oregon; see Ontario Ministry of Energy, “Clean
Energy in Ontario,” http://www.energy.gov.on.ca/en/ontarioselectricity-system/clean-energy-in-ontario/,
viewed 29 March
2016, Ontario Ministry of Energy, “A new era of cleaner air in
Ontario,” press release (Toronto: 10 September 2014), https://
news.ontario.ca/mei/en/2014/09/a-new-era-of-cleaner-airin-ontario.html?_ga=1.259397385.2030286626.145926976
8, and Kristena Hansen, “Oregon governor signs landmark
anti-coal bill into law,” Associated Press, 11 March 2016, http://
bigstory.ap.org/article/9b866fee39384a6b92b3b512c215f5aa/
oregon-governor-signs-landmark-anti-coal-bill-law. Scotland
closed its last coal plant in March 2016, from Susanna Twidale,
“Scottish Power ends production at Scotland’s last coal power
station,” Reuters, 23 March 2016, http://uk.reuters.com/article/
uk-scottishpower-coal-closure-idUKKCN0WQ005.
48 Second largest after China based on preliminary 2014 data
from IEA, Key Coal Trends Excerpt from Coal Information (Paris:
2015), p. 13, http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/
publication/KeyCoalTrends.pdf; Katherine Tweed, “America’s coal
production falls to its lowest level since 1986,” Greentech Media,
11 January 2016, http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/
Americas-Coal-Production-Falls-to-Its-Lowest-Level-Since-1986;
coal’s share of US electricity generation fell from 53% to 35% in
five years, from Pearce, op. cit. note 3; coal has been overtaken
by natural gas and renewables, and gas surpassed coal as the
dominant source of electricity generation for the first time ever
in April 2015, from Tweed, op. cit. this note; market value of
the stock of the top five US coal producers fell from more than
USD 45 billion around 2010 to under USD 2 billion by early 2016,
from David Crane, “King Coal and the irony of the endgame,”
Greenbiz, 16 February 2016, http://www.greenbiz.com/article/
king-coal-and-irony-endgame.
49 The value of fossil fuel subsidies fluctuates from year to year
depending on reform efforts, consumption level of subsidised
fuels, international fossil fuel prices, exchange rates and
general price inflation, from IEA, op. cit. note 2, p. 96. See also
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
(OECD), “OECD-IEA analysis of fossil fuels and other support,”
http://www.oecd.org/site/tadffss/, viewed 3 March 2016.
Subsidies for renewables include USD 112 billion in the power
sector and USD 23 billion for biofuels, all in 2014, from IEA, op. cit.
note 2, p. 27.
50 Integration from Paul Simons, IEA, presentation at 17e Colloque
du Syndicat des Energies Renouvelables, UNESCO, Paris, 4
February 2016; lack of policy security/predictability and political
instability in many countries, particularly in the developing
world, from Galán, op. cit. note 33; fiscal constraints from
idem and from Sargsyan, op. cit. note 1. Sidebar 1 based on
the following sources: All information from REN21, UNECE
Renewable Energy Status Report (Paris: December 2015), www.
ren21.net/regional, except where otherwise noted; onshore
wind potential based on country profiles published in IRENA,
Renewable Energy Country Profiles for the European Union (Abu
Dhabi: June 2013), http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/
Publications/_EU27Complete.pdf, and in IRENA, Renewable
Energy Country Profiles: Eurasia, Non-EU Europe and North
America (Abu Dhabi: December 2013); CSP potential from
IEA, Solar Energy Perspectives (Paris: OECD/IEA, 2011), p. 58,
http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/
Solar_Energy_Perspectives2011.pdf; solar water heating based
on information compiled from local co-ordinating contributors
and from Franz Mauthner, Werner Weiss, and Monika Spörk-Dür,
Solar Heat Worldwide: Market and Contribution to the Energy
Supply 2013 (Gleisdorf, Austria: IEA Solar Heating & Cooling
Programme, June 2015), p. 30,
http://www.iea-shc.org/data/sites/1/publications/Solar-Heat-
Worldwide-2015.pdf; strategies and targets from IEA, Eastern
Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia (Paris: OECD/IEA, 2015),
https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/
INOGATE_Summary_FINAL.pdf. The countries without
feed-in tariffs are Moldova, the Russian Federation, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. As of 2015, tendering was used
in Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and the
Russian Federation. Net metering has been adopted in Armenia,
Belarus, Montenegro and Ukraine. Countries without national
energy efficiency targets include Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia,
Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan. Countries without national
energy efficiency awareness campaigns are Albania, Armenia,
Turkmenistan and Ukraine. For investment data, see Figure
13 in REN21, UNECE Renewable Energy Status Report, op. cit.
this note; entrenched interests as a barrier from Samantha Ölz,
independent consultant, Moscow, personal communication with
REN21, 24 January 2016.
51 Hinrichs-Rahlwes, op. cit. note 14.
52 FS–UNEP Centre and BNEF, op. cit. note 41, p. 19.
53 Galán, op. cit. note 33; Alex Morales, “Renewable energy freeing
island nations from fossil fuel prices,” Renewable Energy World,
11 December 2015, http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/
articles/2015/12/renewable-energy-freeing-island-nations-fromfossil-fuel-prices;
“Case study: Pakistan’s wind energy market,”
WWEA Quarterly Bulletin, March 2015, p. 12. See also Carlo
Schick, WWEA, “Avenues for community wind in developing
countries: trends and innovative business models from South
Africa and Mexico,” presentation, Husum, Germany, 15 September
2015, www.wwindea.org.
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