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8/1/2016 More Exxon Documents Show How Much It Knew About Climate 35 Years Ago | InsideClimate News
apprising top managers.
On March 28, Shaw gave a presentation at an
internal Exxon environmental conference in Florham
Park, N.J. He showed projections of fossil fuel use
through the 21 st century and the growth in global
carbon dioxide expected from it.
Shaw told his audience that he was regularly asked
to prepare estimates for Exxon about CO2 from
fossil fuel use. Those estimates used and were
integrated into the company's energy projections for
the 21 st century and circulated within Exxon.
He wrote in the presentation: "As part of CPPD's
technology forecasting activities in 1981,1 wrote a
CO2 greenhouse forecast based on publically
available information. Soon thereafter, S&T [Science
& Technology] requested an update of the forecast
using Exxon fossil fuel projections. This request was
followed late in 1981 with a request by CPD
[Corporate Planning Department] for assistance in
evaluating the potential impact of the CO2 effect in
the '2030 Study.' After meeting CPD's specific need,
a formal technology forecast update was issued to
S&T in the beginning of April 1982. It was
subsequently sent for review to the Exxon affiliates."
Exxon's affiliates are the company's various
divisions, including exploration and production,
refining, international units and shipping.
Then Shaw shared with his audience estimates by
Exxon and three other entities—the Environmental
Protection Agency, the National Academy of
Sciences, and the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology—about when CO2 would double in the
atmosphere, what kind of increases could occur in
average global temperatures and the effects of such
changes on human life.
Exxon estimated that CO2 would double by 2090,
which was later than what the other groups had
projected. It estimated that average global
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