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8/1/2016 Exxon Confirmed Global Warming Consensus in 1982 with In-House Climate Models | InsideClimate News about 0.8 o C (1.4 0 F) and mainstream scientists continue to predict, with increasing urgency, that if emissions are not curtailed, carbon pollution would lock in warming of as much as 3 to 6 0 C (or 5 to 11 0 F) over the next several decades. Quantifying the Uncertainty Throughout its climate modeling phase, Exxon researchers, like outside scientists, grappled with the uncertainties inherent in climate model projections. "Models are being used to explore physical effects (scenarios) and as a predictive tool," Andrew Callegari said in a Feb. 2,1984 presentation for colleagues. The "validity of models [are] not established," Callegari wrote. "Complexity of carbon cycle and climate system require many approximations." Scientists, regulators and Exxon all had to ask themselves: what should be done, given that uncertainty? Should governments and corporations wait for the ambiguities to be resolved before acting to cut fossil fuel emissions? Or should the researchers re<strong>comm</strong>end immediate action because of a preponderance of evidence? Since then, modeling has become an increasingly useful and reliable tool. The IPCC, the United Nations institution that compiles the scientific consensus on global warming, has issued a series of reports since 1990 based on those models. Each report has grown more certain. By the fifth report in 2013, the IPCC said it was "extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20 th century." Click to Enlarge App. 535 https://insideclimatenews.org/news/18092015/exxon-confirmed-global-warming-consensus-in-1982-with-in-house-climate-models 11/15
8/1/2016 Exxon Confirmed Global Warming Consensus In 1982 with In-House Climate Models | InsideClimate News The Growing Certainty of IPCC Climate Models and Assessments Relying on better and better climate models, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has expressed increasing confidence that human activity is driving global warming. I IPCC RtPQRT im i \PGG RtPQRT W 2001 I \PCG fllPOW 83 2001 "It Is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century." IPCC CONFIDENCE LEVEL: iffl "Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid- 20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations." IPCC CONFIDENCE LEVEL: EE! "Most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations." IPCC CONFIDENCE LEVEL: EBl \PGG RtPOW w "The balance of evidence suggests that there is discernable human influence on global climate." \PGG RtPQRT W 1990 "It is not possible at this time to attribute all or even a large part of the observed global mean warming to the enhanced greenhouse effect on the basis of observational data currently available." SOURCE: IPCC PAUL HORN / InsideClimate News As the consensus grew within the scientific world, Exxon doubled down on the uncertainty. Its campaign to muddy research results placed the company outside the scientific mainstream. Some of the researchers who once led the company's App. 536 https://insideclimatenews.or g/news/18092015/exxon-confirmed-global-warmlng-consensus-in-1982-with-ln-house-climat&-models 12/15
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COMMONWEALTH OF MASSACHUSETTS SUFFO
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9 Exxon webpage, Meeting global nee
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24 Exxon: The Road Not Taken series
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34 Justin Gillis & Clifford Krauss,
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54 Webpage for National Association
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COMMONWEALTH OF MASSACHUSETTS SUFFO
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https://web.archive.Org/web/2016060
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Than 12,500 Massachusetts Consumers
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David Hasemyer and John H. Cushman
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May 28, 2014, available https://www
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40. Attached to this affidavit as E
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50. Attached to this affidavit as E
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Perspectives, May 23, 2016, availab
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V— '> C0 2 GREENHOUSE AND CLIMATE
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PROJECTED CARBON DIOXIDE (AS CARBON
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PROJECTED CARBON DIOXIDE (AS CARBON
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CONCLUSIONS/RECOMMENDATIONS EPA i )
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GROWTH OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 AND INSTA
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C0 2 GREENHOUSE AND CLIMATE ISSUES
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OUR NEXT TASK IS TO CONVERT THE AMO
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EXHIBIT 2 App. 300
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PARIS AGREEMENT The Parties to this
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(a) "Convention" means the United N
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8. In communicating their nationall
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Article 6 1. Parties recognize that
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Article 7 1. Parties hereby establi
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(e) Building the resilience of soci
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5. The Warsaw International Mechani
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5. Accelerating, encouraging and en
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4. The transparency arrangements un
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means of implementation and support
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8. The United Nations and its speci
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the organization and its member Sta
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Article 28 1. At any time after thr
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International Energy Agency ENERGY
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The Int
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United States, which currently impo
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Trucks deliver a large share of oil
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If nuclear falls back, what takes i
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On bookshop International Energy Ag
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EXHIBIT 4 App. 340
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Managing the risks of exposure to f
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Managing the risks of exposure to f
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Distribution List: R. W. Cohen M. J
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- 2 - might rise the 0.5 needed to
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Energy and Carbon — Managing the
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2. World Energy Needs Keep Growing
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ExxonMobil believes that efficiency
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The cost limitations of renewables
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income. For example, by 2030 for th
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A "low carbon scenario" will impact
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In our operations, we apply a const
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technology can be up to 80 percent
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Such stress testing differs from al
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7. Capital Allocation ExxonMobil ma
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Lastly, we note that even when sens
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Appendix Topic Page Proved Reserves
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EXXONMOBIL RESOURCE BASE - AT DECEM
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EXXONMOBIL CAPEX OUTLOOK (1) Capex
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EXXONMOBIL PRODUCTION PRICES AND PR
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EXHIBIT 7 App. 382
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2 February 29, 2016 target. First;
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4 February 20! 2016 the power gener
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6 February 29, 2016 In addition, wh
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EXHIBIT 8 App. 390
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ExxonMobil's Energy Outlook Project
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Meeting global needs - managing cli
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EXHIBIT 10 App. 404
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— BUSINESS: Document trove detail
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EXHIBIT 11 App. 408
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Chase Bank to Pay $136 Million in N
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Ocwen to Provide $2.1 Billion in Re
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$470 Million State-Federal Settleme
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EXHIBIT 14 App. 416
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CitiGroup to Pay $7B Over Mortgage
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JPMorgan to Pay $13 Billion in Fede
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MoneyGram to Pay $13M Over Wire Tra
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AG Announces Major Award for 12,500
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EXHIBIT 20 App. 432
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NY A.G. Schneiderman, Massachusetts
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NY A.G. Schneiderman, Massachusetts
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At a Cape Cod Landmark, a Strategic
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At a Cape Cod Landmark, a Strategic
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Climate change could have an even w
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Climate change could have an even w
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Summary for Policymakers Introducti
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Summary for Policymakers the past 1
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Summary for Policymakers Contributi
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Summary for Policymakers very likel
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Summary for Policymakers Multi-mode
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Summary for Policymakers RCP2.6 RCP
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Regional key risks and potential fo
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Summary for Policymakers Rural area
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Summary for Policymakers impacts in
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Summary for Policymakers Greater ra
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Summary for Policymakers Table SPM.
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Summary for Policymakers Global mit
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Summary for Policymakers entail num
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Summary for Policymakers SPM 4.3 Re
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Summary for Policymakers high agree
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EXHIBIT 23 App. 480
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What Exxon knew about the Earth's m
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8/1/2016 More Exxon Documents Show
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8/1/2016 More Exxon Documents Show
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8/1/2016 Exxon's Oil Industry Peers
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InsideClimate News Is a Pulitzer Pr
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EXHIBIT 26 App. 604
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8/5/2016 References | ExxonMobil Ja
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tNERAI 114.1-ID -OFFICE CORRESPONDE
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DRAFT BED TO MEJO 1 L You asked abo
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EXHIBIT 28 App. 612
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Mr. A. M. Natkin - 2 - August 25, 1
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i 0763-L-RWC CO2 Climate Modeling R
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PROPRIETARY INFORMATION For Authori
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PROPRlcTAHY I'irORM, CXX'On Por Aut
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cl 798 - 3 - Figure 3 shows the car
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cl 7 98 A. No Limit on CO2 Emission
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l798 - 7 - and then rapidly decreas
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l798 Table 1 C0 7 EMISSIONS lb CC^E
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al798 - 2 - • The present tropics
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l798 APPENDIX C CONSTRUCTION OF SCE
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Figure 1 MOST OF THE USSR'S VAST AG
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Figiirg a The Carbon Cycle Current
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App. 638
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Figure 7 CO? IN ATMOSPHERE RATE OF
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Figure 9 _C0 2 IN ATMOSPHERE RATE O
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funds and asset managers are starti
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concerns that some fossil fuels wil
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Really? ExxonMobil left the risk ou
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Really? ExxonMobil left the risk ou
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Joe Walker TO: CCJ Subject Otobal C
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V 2 Because the sdeuce xmdtrpinning
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4 Strategies and Tactics I. Nationa
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6 • The GCSDC will become a. one-
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Number of school teachers/students
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Status of Ratification Page 1 of 8
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Exxon Mobil Investigated for Possib
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Virgin Islands and Exxon Agree to U
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8/1/2016 CLIMATE: Fossil fuel backe
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EXHIBIT 38 App. 694
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A.G. Schneiderman, Former Vice Pres
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A.G, Schneiderman, Former Vice Pres
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(EongreaB nf States Mafil?ingtnn, S
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Edward Mar^y United States Senator
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19 senat Page 1 of 10 fueffix FREE
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EXHIBIT 41 App. 706
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2 (A) developed a sophisticated and
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4 1 (C) what they knew about the ha
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Where to buy motor oil products | M
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Where to buy motor oil products [ M
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Where to buy motor oil products I M
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8/4/2016 Gas Stations - Exxon and M
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Gas Stations in Massachusetts, Unit
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Gas Stations in Massachusetts, Unit
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Mobil Gas Station in Boston, Massac
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northeast and midwest assets Page 1
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Fuel Distribution and Retail Opport
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COMMONWEALTH OF MASSACHUSETTS - STA
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EXHIBIT 50 App. 752
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Exxon Mobil Coiporation (XOM) Insti
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8/5/2016 FDFFX - Fidelity® Indepen
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Exxon Mobil's (XOM) CEO Rex Tillers
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Mass. reaches $2.9M settlement with
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NAAG I NAAG Center for Tobacco and
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NAAG I NAAG Center for Tobacco and
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PROPOSED EXXON RESEARCH PROGRAM TO
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W BUSINESS . , ' RATIONALE FOR EXXO
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DEFINITION App. 796 GREENHOUSE EFFE
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MAJORRESEARCH NEEDS PROBLEM AREA AT
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FLUX = (TRANSFER COEFFICIENT) X (DR
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C TANKER PROGRAM (CONTINUED) TANKER
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pC0 2 10" 6 atm. IN THE SURFACE WAT
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DRILLING SHIP PROGRAM EXXON CONTRAC
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- S A L I N I T Y | . - P H , j - S
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INFORMATION YIELDS (CONTINUED) ? +
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INFORMATION YIELDS (CONTINUED) DRIL
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THEORY OF LAND BIOTA SAMPLING e INC
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PROPOSED PROGRAM - LAND BIOTA SAMPL
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GREENHOUSE EFFECT Develop backgroun
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Unleashing Innovation To Meet our E
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Our climate science histoiy | Exxon
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The truth about ExxonMobil and clim
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The coordinated attack on ExxonMobi
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ExxonMobil responds to state AGs -
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EXHIBIT 61 App. 848
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ExxonMobil to Hold Media Call on Ne
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