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8/1/2016 Exxon Confirmed Global Warming Consensus in 1982 with In-House Climate Models | InsideClimate News of the climate system. He recognized that even if the impacts were modest in 2030, the world would have locked in enough CO2 emissions to ensure more severe consequences in subsequent decades. By 2030, he warned, the damage could be irreversible. Unanimous Agreement "Over the past several years a clear scientific consensus has emerged regarding the expected climatic effects of increased atmospheric C02," Cohen wrote to A.M. Natkin of Exxon Corporation's Science and Technology Office in 1982. "The consensus is that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 from its pre-industrial revolution value would result in an average global temperature rise of (3.0 ± 1 .SrC." (Equal to 5.4 ± 2.7 0 F). "There is unanimous agreement in the scientific <strong>comm</strong>unity that a temperature increase of this magnitude would bring about significant changes in the earth's climate, including rainfall distribution and alterations in the biosphere." Exxon's own modeling research confirmed this and the company's results were later published in at least three peer-reviewed science articles. Two of them were co-authored by Hoffert, and a third was written entirely by Flannery. Exxon's modeling experts also explained away the less-dire predictions of a 1979 study led by Reginald Newell, a prominent atmospheric scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Newell's model projected that the effects of climate change would not be as severe as most scientists were predicting. Specifically, Newell and a co-author from the Air Force named Thomas Dopplick challenged the prevailing view that a doubling of the earth's CO2 blanket would raise temperatures about 3 0 C (5 0 F)- a measure known as climate sensitivity. Instead, they said the earth's true climate sensitivity was roughly App. 531 https://insideclimatenews.org/news/18092015/exxon-confirmed-global-warming-consensus-in-1982-with-in-house-climate-models 7/15
8/1/2016 Exxon Confirmed Global Warming Consensus in 1982 with In-House Climate Models | InsldeCllmate News less than 1 0 C(2 0 F). They based their results on a mechanism called "evaporative buffering," in which excess warming at the equator causes increased evaporation, cooling the planet in the same way that perspiration cools a marathon runner. Exxon's research team disagreed. Even if the mechanism cooled the equator, the worldwide warming would still be higher, they found, according to the researchers' peer-reviewed studies. "In summary, the results of our research are in accord with the scientific consensus on the effect of increased atmospheric CO2 on climate," Cohen wrote in the 1982 letter he sent to Natkin. Martin Hoffert (Credit: NASA) Exxon's science turned out to be spot on, and the company's early modeling projections still hold up more than 30 years later, Hoffert said in an email to InsideClimate News. The Arctic's rapid warming and the extreme vulnerability of Antarctica's ice sheets are "consistent with the results of our theory which predicted them before they happened," Hoffert wrote. Exxon "should be taking credit for their role in developing useful model predictions of the pattern of global warming by their research guys, as opposed to their denialist lobbyists saying global App. 532 https://insldeclimatenews.org/news/18092015/exxon-confirmed-global-warmlng-consensus-ln-1982-wlth-ln-house-cllmate-models 8/15
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COMMONWEALTH OF MASSACHUSETTS SUFFO
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9 Exxon webpage, Meeting global nee
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24 Exxon: The Road Not Taken series
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34 Justin Gillis & Clifford Krauss,
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54 Webpage for National Association
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COMMONWEALTH OF MASSACHUSETTS SUFFO
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https://web.archive.Org/web/2016060
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Than 12,500 Massachusetts Consumers
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David Hasemyer and John H. Cushman
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May 28, 2014, available https://www
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40. Attached to this affidavit as E
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50. Attached to this affidavit as E
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Perspectives, May 23, 2016, availab
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V— '> C0 2 GREENHOUSE AND CLIMATE
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PROJECTED CARBON DIOXIDE (AS CARBON
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PROJECTED CARBON DIOXIDE (AS CARBON
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CONCLUSIONS/RECOMMENDATIONS EPA i )
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GROWTH OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 AND INSTA
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C0 2 GREENHOUSE AND CLIMATE ISSUES
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OUR NEXT TASK IS TO CONVERT THE AMO
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EXHIBIT 2 App. 300
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PARIS AGREEMENT The Parties to this
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(a) "Convention" means the United N
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8. In communicating their nationall
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Article 6 1. Parties recognize that
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Article 7 1. Parties hereby establi
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(e) Building the resilience of soci
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5. The Warsaw International Mechani
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5. Accelerating, encouraging and en
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4. The transparency arrangements un
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means of implementation and support
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8. The United Nations and its speci
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the organization and its member Sta
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Article 28 1. At any time after thr
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International Energy Agency ENERGY
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The Int
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United States, which currently impo
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Trucks deliver a large share of oil
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If nuclear falls back, what takes i
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On bookshop International Energy Ag
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EXHIBIT 4 App. 340
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Managing the risks of exposure to f
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Managing the risks of exposure to f
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EXHIBIT 5 App. 346
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Distribution List: R. W. Cohen M. J
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- 2 - might rise the 0.5 needed to
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Energy and Carbon — Managing the
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2. World Energy Needs Keep Growing
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ExxonMobil believes that efficiency
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The cost limitations of renewables
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income. For example, by 2030 for th
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A "low carbon scenario" will impact
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In our operations, we apply a const
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technology can be up to 80 percent
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Such stress testing differs from al
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7. Capital Allocation ExxonMobil ma
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Lastly, we note that even when sens
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Appendix Topic Page Proved Reserves
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EXXONMOBIL RESOURCE BASE - AT DECEM
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EXXONMOBIL CAPEX OUTLOOK (1) Capex
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EXXONMOBIL PRODUCTION PRICES AND PR
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EXHIBIT 7 App. 382
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2 February 29, 2016 target. First;
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4 February 20! 2016 the power gener
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6 February 29, 2016 In addition, wh
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EXHIBIT 8 App. 390
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ExxonMobil's Energy Outlook Project
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Meeting global needs - managing cli
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EXHIBIT 10 App. 404
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— BUSINESS: Document trove detail
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EXHIBIT 11 App. 408
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Chase Bank to Pay $136 Million in N
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Ocwen to Provide $2.1 Billion in Re
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$470 Million State-Federal Settleme
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EXHIBIT 14 App. 416
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CitiGroup to Pay $7B Over Mortgage
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JPMorgan to Pay $13 Billion in Fede
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EXHIBIT 16 App. 422
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EXHIBIT 17 App. 424
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MoneyGram to Pay $13M Over Wire Tra
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AG Announces Major Award for 12,500
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EXHIBIT 20 App. 432
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NY A.G. Schneiderman, Massachusetts
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NY A.G. Schneiderman, Massachusetts
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EXHIBIT 21 App. 438
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At a Cape Cod Landmark, a Strategic
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At a Cape Cod Landmark, a Strategic
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Climate change could have an even w
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Climate change could have an even w
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EXHIBIT 22 App. 448
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Summary for Policymakers Introducti
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Summary for Policymakers the past 1
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Summary for Policymakers Contributi
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Summary for Policymakers very likel
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Summary for Policymakers Multi-mode
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Summary for Policymakers RCP2.6 RCP
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Regional key risks and potential fo
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Summary for Policymakers Rural area
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Summary for Policymakers impacts in
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Summary for Policymakers Greater ra
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Summary for Policymakers Table SPM.
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Summary for Policymakers Global mit
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Summary for Policymakers entail num
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Summary for Policymakers SPM 4.3 Re
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Summary for Policymakers high agree
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Page 297 and 298: Exxon Sowed Doubt about Climate Sci
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8/1/2016 More Exxon Documents Show
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8/1/2016 Exxon's Oil Industry Peers
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InsideClimate News Is a Pulitzer Pr
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EXHIBIT 26 App. 604
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8/5/2016 References | ExxonMobil Ja
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tNERAI 114.1-ID -OFFICE CORRESPONDE
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DRAFT BED TO MEJO 1 L You asked abo
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EXHIBIT 28 App. 612
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Mr. A. M. Natkin - 2 - August 25, 1
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i 0763-L-RWC CO2 Climate Modeling R
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PROPRIETARY INFORMATION For Authori
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PROPRlcTAHY I'irORM, CXX'On Por Aut
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cl 798 - 3 - Figure 3 shows the car
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cl 7 98 A. No Limit on CO2 Emission
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l798 - 7 - and then rapidly decreas
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l798 Table 1 C0 7 EMISSIONS lb CC^E
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al798 - 2 - • The present tropics
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l798 APPENDIX C CONSTRUCTION OF SCE
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Figure 1 MOST OF THE USSR'S VAST AG
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Figiirg a The Carbon Cycle Current
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App. 638
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Figure 7 CO? IN ATMOSPHERE RATE OF
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Figure 9 _C0 2 IN ATMOSPHERE RATE O
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EXHIBIT 30 App. 644
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funds and asset managers are starti
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concerns that some fossil fuels wil
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Really? ExxonMobil left the risk ou
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Really? ExxonMobil left the risk ou
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Joe Walker TO: CCJ Subject Otobal C
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V 2 Because the sdeuce xmdtrpinning
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4 Strategies and Tactics I. Nationa
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6 • The GCSDC will become a. one-
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Number of school teachers/students
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Status of Ratification Page 1 of 8
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EXHIBIT 34 App. 672
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Exxon Mobil Investigated for Possib
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Exxon Mobil Investigated for Possib
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EXHIBIT 35 App. 678
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Virgin Islands and Exxon Agree to U
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U.S. Department of Justice Office o
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8/1/2016 CLIMATE: Fossil fuel backe
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8/1/2016 CLIMATE: Fossil fuel backe
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EXHIBIT 38 App. 694
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A.G. Schneiderman, Former Vice Pres
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A.G, Schneiderman, Former Vice Pres
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(EongreaB nf States Mafil?ingtnn, S
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Edward Mar^y United States Senator
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19 senat Page 1 of 10 fueffix FREE
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EXHIBIT 41 App. 706
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2 (A) developed a sophisticated and
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4 1 (C) what they knew about the ha
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Where to buy motor oil products | M
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Where to buy motor oil products [ M
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Where to buy motor oil products I M
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Where to buy motor oil products [ M
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8/4/2016 Gas Stations - Exxon and M
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Gas Stations in Massachusetts, Unit
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Gas Stations in Massachusetts, Unit
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EXHIBIT 44 App. 736
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Mobil Gas Station in Boston, Massac
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northeast and midwest assets Page 1
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Fuel Distribution and Retail Opport
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ExxonMobil Partners With Massachuse
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COMMONWEALTH OF MASSACHUSETTS - STA
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EXHIBIT 50 App. 752
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Exxon Mobil Coiporation (XOM) Insti
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8/5/2016 FDFFX - Fidelity® Indepen
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8/5/2016 FDFFX - Fidelity ® Indepe
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Exxon Mobil's (XOM) CEO Rex Tillers
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EXHIBIT 53 App. 784
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Mass. reaches $2.9M settlement with
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NAAG I NAAG Center for Tobacco and
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NAAG I NAAG Center for Tobacco and
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PROPOSED EXXON RESEARCH PROGRAM TO
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W BUSINESS . , ' RATIONALE FOR EXXO
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DEFINITION App. 796 GREENHOUSE EFFE
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MAJORRESEARCH NEEDS PROBLEM AREA AT
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FLUX = (TRANSFER COEFFICIENT) X (DR
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C TANKER PROGRAM (CONTINUED) TANKER
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pC0 2 10" 6 atm. IN THE SURFACE WAT
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DRILLING SHIP PROGRAM EXXON CONTRAC
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- S A L I N I T Y | . - P H , j - S
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INFORMATION YIELDS (CONTINUED) ? +
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INFORMATION YIELDS (CONTINUED) DRIL
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THEORY OF LAND BIOTA SAMPLING e INC
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PROPOSED PROGRAM - LAND BIOTA SAMPL
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PROPOSED PROGRAM SCHEDULE (CONTINUE
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GREENHOUSE EFFECT Develop backgroun
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Unleashing Innovation To Meet our E
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EXHIBIT 57 App. 834
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Our climate science histoiy | Exxon
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The truth about ExxonMobil and clim
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The coordinated attack on ExxonMobi
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ExxonMobil responds to state AGs -
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EXHIBIT 61 App. 848
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ExxonMobil to Hold Media Call on Ne
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