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8/1/2016 Exxon Confirmed Global Warming Consensus in 1982 with In-House Climate Models | InsideClimate News Flannery and Callegari were "very legitimate research guys," Hoffert said. "We talked about the politics of this stuff a lot, but we always separated the politics from the science." Climate 'Catastrophe' Foreseen By 1981, Exxon scientists were no longer questioning whether the buildup of CO2 would cause the world to heat up. Through their own studies and their participation in governmentsponsored conferences, company researchers had concluded that rising CO2 levels could create catastrophic impacts within the first half of the 21 s1: century if the burning of oil, gas and coal wasn't contained. CONCENTRATION OF ATMOSPHERIC COg AT MAUNA LOA OBSERVATORY, HAWAII A chart showing the increase in the growth rate of carbon dioxide measurements in Hawaii. Exxon scientists shared this chart in their documents discussing the company's climate modeling efforts. "When I arrived there, I was quite surprised to discover that people in the research lab were very aware of the increase in the growth rate of carbon dioxide measurements in Hawaii [at the Mauna Loa observatory]," Morrel H. Cohen, a senior scientist at Exxon Research from 1981 to 1996, said in a recent interview, "They were very aware of the greenhouse effect." App. 529 https://insideclimatenews.org/news/18092015/exxon-confirmed-global-warming-consensus-in-1982-with-in-house-climate-models 5/15
8/1/2016 Exxon Confirmed Global Warming Consensus in 1982 with In-House Climate Models | InsideClimate News As the researchers alerted Exxon's upper management about the CO2 problem, the scientists worked to provide better estimates of when the warming trend would create noticeable damage, and how large the impacts might be. One scientist, Werner Glass, wrote an analysis in 1981 for a senior vice president that said the rise In global temperatures would begin to be noticed In a few decades. But Glass hedged his bet, saying the magnitude of the change would be "well short of catastrophic" In the early years. Exxon manager Roger Cohen saw things differently. "I think that this statement may be too reassuring," Cohen, director of the Theoretical and Mathematical Sciences Laboratory at Exxon Research, wrote in an August 18,1981 memo to Glass. vnchau . , iffttR-OFFICE CORRESPONDENCE TO MOM W. Glass suojecr R. W. Cohen date August 18, 1981 I have looked over the draft of the EED reply to the request from O'Loughlin. The only real problem I have is with the second clause of the last sentence in the first paragraph"; "but changes of a magnitude well short of catastrophic..." I think that this statement may be too reassuring. Whereas I can agree with the statement that our best guess is that observable effects in the year 2030 are likely to be "well short of catastrophic", it is distinctly possible that the CPD scenario will later produce effects which will indeed be catastrophic (at least for a substantial fraction of the earth's population). This is because the global ecosystem in 2030 might still be in a transient, headed for much more significant effects after time lags perhaps of the order of decades. If this indeed turns out to be case, it is very likely that we will unambiguously recognize the threat by the year 2000 because of advances in climate modeling and the beginning of real experimental confirmation of the CO2 effect. The effects of such a recognition on subsequent fossil fuel combustion are unpredictable, but one can say that predictions based only on our knowledge of availability and economics become hazardous. He called it "distinctly possible" that the projected warming trend after 2030 "will indeed be catastrophic (at least for a substantial fraction of the earth's population)." Cohen continued: "This is because the global ecosystem in 2030 might still be in a transient, headed for much significant effects after time lags perhaps of the order of decades." Cohen demonstrated a sophisticated understanding App. 530 https://insideclimatenews.org/news/18092015/exxon-confirmed-global-warming-consensus-in-1982-with-in-house-climate-models 6/15
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COMMONWEALTH OF MASSACHUSETTS SUFFO
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9 Exxon webpage, Meeting global nee
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24 Exxon: The Road Not Taken series
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34 Justin Gillis & Clifford Krauss,
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54 Webpage for National Association
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COMMONWEALTH OF MASSACHUSETTS SUFFO
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https://web.archive.Org/web/2016060
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Than 12,500 Massachusetts Consumers
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David Hasemyer and John H. Cushman
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May 28, 2014, available https://www
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40. Attached to this affidavit as E
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50. Attached to this affidavit as E
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Perspectives, May 23, 2016, availab
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V— '> C0 2 GREENHOUSE AND CLIMATE
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PROJECTED CARBON DIOXIDE (AS CARBON
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PROJECTED CARBON DIOXIDE (AS CARBON
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CONCLUSIONS/RECOMMENDATIONS EPA i )
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GROWTH OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 AND INSTA
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C0 2 GREENHOUSE AND CLIMATE ISSUES
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OUR NEXT TASK IS TO CONVERT THE AMO
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EXHIBIT 2 App. 300
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PARIS AGREEMENT The Parties to this
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(a) "Convention" means the United N
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8. In communicating their nationall
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Article 6 1. Parties recognize that
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Article 7 1. Parties hereby establi
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(e) Building the resilience of soci
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5. The Warsaw International Mechani
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5. Accelerating, encouraging and en
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4. The transparency arrangements un
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means of implementation and support
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8. The United Nations and its speci
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the organization and its member Sta
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Article 28 1. At any time after thr
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International Energy Agency ENERGY
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The Int
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United States, which currently impo
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Trucks deliver a large share of oil
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If nuclear falls back, what takes i
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On bookshop International Energy Ag
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EXHIBIT 4 App. 340
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Managing the risks of exposure to f
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Managing the risks of exposure to f
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Distribution List: R. W. Cohen M. J
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- 2 - might rise the 0.5 needed to
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Energy and Carbon — Managing the
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2. World Energy Needs Keep Growing
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ExxonMobil believes that efficiency
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The cost limitations of renewables
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income. For example, by 2030 for th
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A "low carbon scenario" will impact
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In our operations, we apply a const
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technology can be up to 80 percent
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Such stress testing differs from al
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7. Capital Allocation ExxonMobil ma
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Lastly, we note that even when sens
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Appendix Topic Page Proved Reserves
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EXXONMOBIL RESOURCE BASE - AT DECEM
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EXXONMOBIL CAPEX OUTLOOK (1) Capex
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EXXONMOBIL PRODUCTION PRICES AND PR
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EXHIBIT 7 App. 382
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2 February 29, 2016 target. First;
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4 February 20! 2016 the power gener
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6 February 29, 2016 In addition, wh
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EXHIBIT 8 App. 390
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ExxonMobil's Energy Outlook Project
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Meeting global needs - managing cli
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— BUSINESS: Document trove detail
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Chase Bank to Pay $136 Million in N
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Ocwen to Provide $2.1 Billion in Re
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$470 Million State-Federal Settleme
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CitiGroup to Pay $7B Over Mortgage
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JPMorgan to Pay $13 Billion in Fede
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MoneyGram to Pay $13M Over Wire Tra
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AG Announces Major Award for 12,500
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EXHIBIT 20 App. 432
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NY A.G. Schneiderman, Massachusetts
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At a Cape Cod Landmark, a Strategic
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At a Cape Cod Landmark, a Strategic
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Climate change could have an even w
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Climate change could have an even w
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Summary for Policymakers Introducti
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Summary for Policymakers the past 1
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Summary for Policymakers Contributi
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Summary for Policymakers very likel
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Summary for Policymakers Multi-mode
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Summary for Policymakers RCP2.6 RCP
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Regional key risks and potential fo
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Summary for Policymakers Rural area
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Summary for Policymakers impacts in
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Summary for Policymakers Greater ra
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Summary for Policymakers Table SPM.
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Summary for Policymakers Global mit
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Summary for Policymakers entail num
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Page 297 and 298: Exxon Sowed Doubt about Climate Sci
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8/1/2016 Exxon Made Deep Cuts in Cl
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8/1/2016 More Exxon Documents Show
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8/1/2016 Exxon's Oil Industry Peers
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InsideClimate News Is a Pulitzer Pr
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8/5/2016 References | ExxonMobil Ja
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tNERAI 114.1-ID -OFFICE CORRESPONDE
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DRAFT BED TO MEJO 1 L You asked abo
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Mr. A. M. Natkin - 2 - August 25, 1
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i 0763-L-RWC CO2 Climate Modeling R
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PROPRIETARY INFORMATION For Authori
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PROPRlcTAHY I'irORM, CXX'On Por Aut
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cl 798 - 3 - Figure 3 shows the car
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cl 7 98 A. No Limit on CO2 Emission
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l798 - 7 - and then rapidly decreas
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l798 Table 1 C0 7 EMISSIONS lb CC^E
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l798 APPENDIX C CONSTRUCTION OF SCE
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Figure 1 MOST OF THE USSR'S VAST AG
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Figiirg a The Carbon Cycle Current
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funds and asset managers are starti
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concerns that some fossil fuels wil
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Really? ExxonMobil left the risk ou
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Really? ExxonMobil left the risk ou
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Joe Walker TO: CCJ Subject Otobal C
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V 2 Because the sdeuce xmdtrpinning
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4 Strategies and Tactics I. Nationa
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6 • The GCSDC will become a. one-
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Number of school teachers/students
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Status of Ratification Page 1 of 8
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Exxon Mobil Investigated for Possib
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Virgin Islands and Exxon Agree to U
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8/1/2016 CLIMATE: Fossil fuel backe
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A.G. Schneiderman, Former Vice Pres
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A.G, Schneiderman, Former Vice Pres
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(EongreaB nf States Mafil?ingtnn, S
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Edward Mar^y United States Senator
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19 senat Page 1 of 10 fueffix FREE
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EXHIBIT 41 App. 706
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2 (A) developed a sophisticated and
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4 1 (C) what they knew about the ha
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Where to buy motor oil products | M
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8/4/2016 Gas Stations - Exxon and M
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8/5/2016 FDFFX - Fidelity® Indepen
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Exxon Mobil's (XOM) CEO Rex Tillers
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Mass. reaches $2.9M settlement with
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NAAG I NAAG Center for Tobacco and
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PROPOSED EXXON RESEARCH PROGRAM TO
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DEFINITION App. 796 GREENHOUSE EFFE
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MAJORRESEARCH NEEDS PROBLEM AREA AT
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FLUX = (TRANSFER COEFFICIENT) X (DR
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C TANKER PROGRAM (CONTINUED) TANKER
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DRILLING SHIP PROGRAM EXXON CONTRAC
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ExxonMobil to Hold Media Call on Ne
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