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8/1/2016 Exxon Confirmed Global Warming Consensus in 1982 with In-House Climate Models | InsideClimate News HOME ABOUT CONTACT TIPS WHISTLE BLOWERS AWARDS SUBSCRIBE f yr ^ DONATE News Investigations Topics Today's Climate Clean Economy Documents Infographics A Pulitzer Prize-winning, non-profit, non-partisan news organization dedicated to covering climate change, energy and the environment. HOME EXXON: THE ROAD NOT TAKEN 13.6k 10 Exxon Confirmed Global Warming Consensus in 1982 with In-House Climate Models The company chairman would later mock climate models as unreliable while he campaigned to stop global action to reduce fossil fuel emissions. LISA SONG, NEELA BANERJEE, DAVID HASEMYER SEP 22, 2015 Cast of Characters E^ON RESEARCH AND ENQINEtRIWG COMPANY _ Explore the Exxon Documents s ABOUT THIS SERIES After eight months of investigation, InsideClimate News presents this multipart history of Exxon's https://insideclimatenews.org/news/18092015/exxon-confirmed-global-warming-consensus-in-1982-with-in-house-climate-models App. 525
8/1/2016 Exxon Confirmed Global Warming Consensus in 1982 with In-House Climate Models | InsideClimate News CO2 INDUCED CHANGES FROM CURRENT CLIMATE C02 RELATIVE ABUNDANCE In 1982, Exxon scientist Andrew Callegari put together a presentation on Exxon modeling results including the chart pictured here. Steve Knisely was an intern at Exxon Research and Engineering in the summer of 1979 when a vice president asked him to analyze how global warming might affect fuel use. "I think this guy was looking for validation that the greenhouse effect should spur some investment in alternative energy that's not bad for the environment," Knisely, now 58 and a partner in a management consulting company, recalled in a recent interview. Knisely projected that unless fossil fuel use was constrained, there would be "noticeable temperature changes" and 400 parts per million of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the air by 2010, up from about 280 ppm before the Industrial Revolution. The summer intern's predictions turned out to be very close to the mark. engagement with the emerging science of climate change. The story spans four decades, and is based on primary sources including internal company files dating back to the late 1970s, interviews with former company employees, and other evidence, much of which is being published here for the first time. It describes how Exxon conducted cutting-edge climate research decades ago and then, without revealing all that it had learned, worked at the forefront of climate denial, manufacturing doubt about the scientific consensus that its own scientists had confirmed. Find the entire project here. E/ftpN RCSt ARCH AHO I NCliSEtfllNO COMPANY How We Got The Exxon Story /Xw i • ' Knisely even concluded that the fossil fuel industry might need to leave 80 percent of its recoverable reserves in the ground to avoid doubling CO2 concentrations, a notion now known as the carbon https://insideclimatenews.org/news/18092015/exxon-confirmed-global-warming-consensus-in-1982-with-in-house-climate-models App. 526
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COMMONWEALTH OF MASSACHUSETTS SUFFO
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9 Exxon webpage, Meeting global nee
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24 Exxon: The Road Not Taken series
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34 Justin Gillis & Clifford Krauss,
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54 Webpage for National Association
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COMMONWEALTH OF MASSACHUSETTS SUFFO
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https://web.archive.Org/web/2016060
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Than 12,500 Massachusetts Consumers
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David Hasemyer and John H. Cushman
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May 28, 2014, available https://www
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40. Attached to this affidavit as E
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50. Attached to this affidavit as E
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Perspectives, May 23, 2016, availab
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V— '> C0 2 GREENHOUSE AND CLIMATE
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PROJECTED CARBON DIOXIDE (AS CARBON
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PROJECTED CARBON DIOXIDE (AS CARBON
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CONCLUSIONS/RECOMMENDATIONS EPA i )
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GROWTH OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 AND INSTA
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C0 2 GREENHOUSE AND CLIMATE ISSUES
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OUR NEXT TASK IS TO CONVERT THE AMO
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EXHIBIT 2 App. 300
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PARIS AGREEMENT The Parties to this
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(a) "Convention" means the United N
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8. In communicating their nationall
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Article 6 1. Parties recognize that
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Article 7 1. Parties hereby establi
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(e) Building the resilience of soci
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5. The Warsaw International Mechani
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5. Accelerating, encouraging and en
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4. The transparency arrangements un
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means of implementation and support
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8. The United Nations and its speci
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the organization and its member Sta
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Article 28 1. At any time after thr
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International Energy Agency ENERGY
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The Int
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United States, which currently impo
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Trucks deliver a large share of oil
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If nuclear falls back, what takes i
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On bookshop International Energy Ag
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EXHIBIT 4 App. 340
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Managing the risks of exposure to f
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Managing the risks of exposure to f
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Distribution List: R. W. Cohen M. J
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- 2 - might rise the 0.5 needed to
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Energy and Carbon — Managing the
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2. World Energy Needs Keep Growing
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ExxonMobil believes that efficiency
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The cost limitations of renewables
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income. For example, by 2030 for th
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A "low carbon scenario" will impact
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In our operations, we apply a const
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technology can be up to 80 percent
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Such stress testing differs from al
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7. Capital Allocation ExxonMobil ma
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Lastly, we note that even when sens
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Appendix Topic Page Proved Reserves
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EXXONMOBIL RESOURCE BASE - AT DECEM
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EXXONMOBIL CAPEX OUTLOOK (1) Capex
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EXXONMOBIL PRODUCTION PRICES AND PR
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EXHIBIT 7 App. 382
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2 February 29, 2016 target. First;
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4 February 20! 2016 the power gener
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6 February 29, 2016 In addition, wh
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EXHIBIT 8 App. 390
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ExxonMobil's Energy Outlook Project
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Meeting global needs - managing cli
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— BUSINESS: Document trove detail
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Chase Bank to Pay $136 Million in N
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Ocwen to Provide $2.1 Billion in Re
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$470 Million State-Federal Settleme
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CitiGroup to Pay $7B Over Mortgage
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JPMorgan to Pay $13 Billion in Fede
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MoneyGram to Pay $13M Over Wire Tra
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AG Announces Major Award for 12,500
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NY A.G. Schneiderman, Massachusetts
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At a Cape Cod Landmark, a Strategic
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At a Cape Cod Landmark, a Strategic
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Climate change could have an even w
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Climate change could have an even w
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Summary for Policymakers Introducti
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Summary for Policymakers the past 1
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Summary for Policymakers Contributi
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Summary for Policymakers very likel
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Summary for Policymakers Multi-mode
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Summary for Policymakers RCP2.6 RCP
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Regional key risks and potential fo
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Summary for Policymakers Rural area
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Summary for Policymakers impacts in
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Summary for Policymakers Greater ra
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Summary for Policymakers Table SPM.
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Summary for Policymakers Global mit
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8/1/2016 More Exxon Documents Show
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8/1/2016 Exxon's Oil Industry Peers
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InsideClimate News Is a Pulitzer Pr
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8/5/2016 References | ExxonMobil Ja
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tNERAI 114.1-ID -OFFICE CORRESPONDE
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DRAFT BED TO MEJO 1 L You asked abo
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Mr. A. M. Natkin - 2 - August 25, 1
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i 0763-L-RWC CO2 Climate Modeling R
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PROPRIETARY INFORMATION For Authori
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PROPRlcTAHY I'irORM, CXX'On Por Aut
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cl 798 - 3 - Figure 3 shows the car
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cl 7 98 A. No Limit on CO2 Emission
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l798 - 7 - and then rapidly decreas
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l798 Table 1 C0 7 EMISSIONS lb CC^E
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al798 - 2 - • The present tropics
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l798 APPENDIX C CONSTRUCTION OF SCE
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Figure 1 MOST OF THE USSR'S VAST AG
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Figiirg a The Carbon Cycle Current
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App. 638
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Figure 7 CO? IN ATMOSPHERE RATE OF
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funds and asset managers are starti
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concerns that some fossil fuels wil
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Really? ExxonMobil left the risk ou
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Really? ExxonMobil left the risk ou
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Joe Walker TO: CCJ Subject Otobal C
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V 2 Because the sdeuce xmdtrpinning
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4 Strategies and Tactics I. Nationa
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Number of school teachers/students
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Status of Ratification Page 1 of 8
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Exxon Mobil Investigated for Possib
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8/1/2016 CLIMATE: Fossil fuel backe
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A.G. Schneiderman, Former Vice Pres
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A.G, Schneiderman, Former Vice Pres
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(EongreaB nf States Mafil?ingtnn, S
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Edward Mar^y United States Senator
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19 senat Page 1 of 10 fueffix FREE
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EXHIBIT 41 App. 706
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2 (A) developed a sophisticated and
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4 1 (C) what they knew about the ha
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Where to buy motor oil products | M
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Mobil Gas Station in Boston, Massac
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Fuel Distribution and Retail Opport
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8/5/2016 FDFFX - Fidelity® Indepen
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Exxon Mobil's (XOM) CEO Rex Tillers
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Mass. reaches $2.9M settlement with
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NAAG I NAAG Center for Tobacco and
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NAAG I NAAG Center for Tobacco and
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PROPOSED EXXON RESEARCH PROGRAM TO
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W BUSINESS . , ' RATIONALE FOR EXXO
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DEFINITION App. 796 GREENHOUSE EFFE
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MAJORRESEARCH NEEDS PROBLEM AREA AT
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FLUX = (TRANSFER COEFFICIENT) X (DR
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C TANKER PROGRAM (CONTINUED) TANKER
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pC0 2 10" 6 atm. IN THE SURFACE WAT
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DRILLING SHIP PROGRAM EXXON CONTRAC
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INFORMATION YIELDS (CONTINUED) ? +
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THEORY OF LAND BIOTA SAMPLING e INC
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Unleashing Innovation To Meet our E
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Our climate science histoiy | Exxon
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The truth about ExxonMobil and clim
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ExxonMobil to Hold Media Call on Ne
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