comm-appendix-support-cross

Summary for Policymakers
before 2100, in which case they are about as likely as not to achieve that goal. In these 500 ppm C0 2-eq scenarios, global 2050
emissions levels are 25 to 55% lower than in 2010. Scenarios with higher emissions in 2050 are characterized by a greater
reliance on Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies beyond mid-century (and vice versa). Trajectories that are likely to
limit warming to 3°C relative to pre-industrial levels reduce emissions less rapidly than those limiting warming to 2 0 C. A limited
number of studies provide scenarios that are more likely than notXo limit warming to 1.5 0 C by 2100; these scenarios are
characterized by concentrations below 430 ppm C0 2-eq by 2100 and 2050 emission reduction between 70% and 95% below
2010. For a comprehensive overview of the characteristics of emissions scenarios, their C0 2-equivalent concentrations and
their likelihood to keep warming to below a range of temperature levels, see Figure SPM.11 and Table SPM.I. {3.4}
GHG emission pathways 2000-2100: All AR5 scenarios
120
[ 530-580 ppm COj-eq
80
• 480-530 ppm COj-eq
• 430-480 ppm C03-eq
- - Full AR5 database range
(b)
100
Associated upscaling of low-carbon energy supply
80
60
40
20
2010
2030 2050 2100 2030 2050 2100 2030 2050 2100 2030 2050 2100
Figure SPM.11 | Global greenhouse gas emissions (gigatonne of C0 3-equivalent per year, GtC0 2-eq/yr) in baseline and mitigation scenarios for different
long-term concentration levels (a) and associated upscaling requirements of low-carbon energy (% of primary energy) for 2030,2050 and 2100 compared
to 2010 levels in mitigation scenarios (b). {Figure 3.2]
App. 469
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