comm-appendix-support-cross

Regional key risks and
potential for risk reduction
Polar Regions (Arctic and Antarctic)
Risks for ecosystems
•Wi
•RUi
•555
•MBPil
Glaciers,
t snow, ice
' and/or
permafrost
Risks for health
and well-being
—n
Physical systems
4
Rivers, lakes, « Coastal erosion
floods and/or . and/or sea level
drought
effects
Unprecedented challenges,
especially from rate of change
fi fi
Representative key risks for each region for
.4. Terrestrial
Iff. ecosystems
Biological systems
Wildfire
Present
Near term (2030-2040)
Long term 2 0 C
(2080-2100) .or
. Marine
ecosystems
i- Risk level ^
mm
r 1 •
Human and managed systems
. Livelihoods, health
production ' P| and/or economics
Increased damages
from wildfires
Heat-related
human mortality
Increased damages
from river and coastal
urban floods
; : , fi 3 .
4
Increased damages from
river and coastal floods
PS
Increased water restrictions
, ! 1
mSmv
Increased damages
from extreme heat
events and wildfires
„ . . . Potential for n. ,
Risk level with additional Risk level with
high adaptation adaptation to current adaptation
reduce risk
Increased flood damage to
infrastructure, livelihoods Heat-related
and settlements A human mortality
Increased droughtrelated
water and
food shortage
Distributional
shift and reduced
fisheries catch
potential at low latitudes
Central and South America
Reduced water availability and
increased flooding and landslides
Pi
Increased mass coral
bleaching and mortality
! ! ,
Coastal inundation
and habitat loss
OBSk^
Pi
fi
Jt
6%
*•
a
Reduced food production and quality
Spread of vector-borne diseases
y#
i not
'C. -d
Pi
Reduced crop productivity and
livelihood and food security
i • • i
Vector- and waterborne
diseases
Pi
Loss of livelihoods,
settlements, infrastructure,
ecosystem services and
economic stability 1
|
rA
whmmZ'
Risks for low-lying
coastal areas '
*
fi
Significant change in composition
and structure of coral reer systems
•whm
Increased flood damage
to infrastructure and
settlements
U ' 1
1 1
Increased risks to
coastal infrastructure
and low-lying
ecosystems
4
h pi
App. 462
Figure SPIVI.8 j Representative key risks 11 for each region, including the potential for risk reduction through adaptation and mitigation, as well as limits to adaptation. Each key risk is assessed as
very low, low, medium, high or very high. Risk levels are presented for three time frames: present, near term (here, for 2030-2040) and long term (here, for 2080-2100). In the near term, projected
levels of global mean temperature increase do not diverge substantially across different emission scenarios. For the long term, risk levels are presented for two possible futures (2°C and 4 0 C global
mean temperature increase above pre-industrial levels). For each timeframe, risk levels are indicated for a continuation of current adaptation and assuming high levels of current or future adaptation.
Risk levels are not necessarily comparable, especially across regions. {Figure 2.4}
14
Identification of key risks was based on expert judgment using the following specific criteria; large magnitude, high probability or irreversibility of impacts; timing of impacts; persistent vulnerability
or exposure contributing to risks; or limited potential to reduce risks through adaptation or mitigation.