Kaliningrad Oblast 2016

member states pose a threat to Russia. Since the oblast is located on the potential
frontline, this strengthens the desire to focus on the leader and seek
support from the federal centre.
• The expected complete rearmament of the 152 nd Missile Brigade in Chernyakhovsk
(by 2018) with Iskander missiles will not principally change the
military situation around Kaliningrad Oblast. At the most this will slightly
expand the spectrum of Russian impact as part of the anti-NATO access
denial zone. Russia may use this as a bargaining chip in an attempt to convince
the new US administration (and the governments of some European
NATO member states) to withdraw from building elements of the US-
NATO missile defence system in Redzikowo, Poland. If such attempts are
unsuccessful, the deployment of Iskanders, which has long been planned,
will most likely be presented as a response to the implementation of this
project.
PRACE OSW REPORT OSW 09/2012 12/2016
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