MOBILIZING DEVELOPMENT

13 Mobilizing Sustainable Transport for Development
1.2 GLOBAL TRENDS AND CHALLENGES
The discussion of sustainable transport must take place
with an understanding of larger trends of urbanization,
demographic shifts, and globalization, as well as
technological progress in digital connectivity and
propulsion solutions.
Urbanization and urban-rural integration
By 2050, the world’s urban population is expected to
have grown by 2.5 billion people, reaching 66% of
the total global population. 19 Africa and Asia together
will make up nearly 90% of this increase until 2050,
and, with this boom, economic mass will continue
to shift from the mature economies toward the
emerging markets. 20 In 2015, there were 29 megacities
of over 10 million people, and by 2030 there will be
an additional 12 megacities, with ten of them in Africa
and Asia. 21 In addition, recent decades have seen the
rise of polycentric metropolitan regions consisting of a
number of connected large urban areas, which present
a new set of challenges for transport planning. 22
Currently, in much of the world, urban growth is poorly
planned or managed, and the result is often sprawl
and inadequate transport and infrastructure. ‘Informal’
transport options—unregulated private operators
running small- to medium-capacity low-performance
vehicles such as collective taxis and mini-buses—often
fill the gaps, but on their own they cannot meet the
needs of all people. 23 Formal and informal transport
both contribute to a host of challenges in cities, in terms
of safety, personal security, congestion and pollution,
disproportionately affecting the poor.
In many cities in developed and developing countries
alike, congestion, pollution, shifting economic centres
and demographic patterns present imminent threats
to lives and livelihoods. The transport landscape in
urban agglomerations is often highly inequitable,
with poor and disabled people left with inadequate
means to access the economic and social centres of
the cities. The burden of climate change adds another
layer of urgency and complexity to the problems
decision makers must address in their quest to create
sustainable cities.
Urbanization must be considered in the context
of the entire global population, remembering that
today, in some developing regions, the majority of
the population is still residing in rural areas. Also, it is
important to note that in some developed countries,
urban centres, in fact, have diminishing populations
and pockets of very low density. In both developing
and developed countries, rural connectivity is an
ongoing challenge, especially as economic and social
activities and opportunities are often based in cities,
towns and markets.