CONNECTIONS October 2016 issue 17 The Presidency

CONNECTIONS Issue # 17
spending, combined with deregulation, tax
cuts, a stronger dollar and the repatriation
of corporate profits, boosts the American
economy for long enough to pacify the
anger. This more emollient Trump might
even model himself on Ronald Reagan, a
conservative hero who was mocked and
underestimated, too.
Nothing would make us happier than to see
Mr Trump succeed in this way. But whereas
Reagan was an optimist, Mr Trump rails
against the loss of an imagined past. We
are deeply sceptical that he will make a
good president—because of his policies,
his temperament and the demands of
political office.
Gravity wins in the end
Take his policies first. After the sugar rush,
populist policies eventually collapse under
their own contradictions. Mr Trump has
pledged to scrap the hated Obamacare. But
that threatens to deprive over 20m hard-up
Americans of health insurance. His tax cuts
would chiefly benefit the rich and they
would be financed by deficits that would
increase debt-to-GDP by 25 percentage
points by 2026. Even if he does not actually
deport illegal immigrants, he will foment the
divisive politics of race. Mr Trump has
demanded trade concessions from China,
Mexico and Canada on threat of tariffs and
the scrapping of the North American Free
Trade Agreement. His protectionism would
further impoverish poor Americans, who
gain more as consumers from cheap
imports than they would as producers from
suppressed competition. If he caused a
trade war, the fragile global economy could
tip into a recession. With interest rates near
zero, policymakers would struggle to
respond.
Abroad Mr Trump says he hates the deal
freezing Iran’s nuclear programme. If it fails,
he would have to choose between attacking
Iran’s nuclear sites and seeing nuclear
proliferation in the Middle East (see article).
He wants to reverse the Paris agreement
on climate change; apart from harming the
planet, that would undermine America as a
negotiating partner. Above all, he would
erode America’s alliances—its greatest
strength. Mr Trump has demanded that
other countries pay more towards their
security or he will walk away. His
bargaining would weaken NATO, leaving
front-line eastern European states
vulnerable to Russia. It would encourage
Chinese expansion in the South China Sea.
Japan and South Korea may be tempted to
arm themselves with nuclear weapons.
The second reason to be wary is
temperament. During the campaign Mr
Trump was narcissistic, thin-skinned and illdisciplined.
Yet the job of the most powerful
man in the world constantly entails daily
humiliations at home and abroad. When
congressmen mock him, insult him and
twist his words, his effectiveness will
depend on his willingness to turn the other
cheek and work for a deal. When a judge
hears a case for fraud against Trump
University in the coming weeks, or rules
against his administration’s policies when
he is in office, he must stand back (selfrestraint
that proved beyond him when he
was a candidate). When journalists
ridiculed him in the campaign he threatened
to open up libel laws. In office he must
ignore them or try to talk them round. When
sovereign governments snub him he must
calculate his response according to
America’s interests, not his own wounded
pride. If Mr Trump fails to master his
resentments, his presidency will soon
become bogged down in a morass of petty
conflicts.
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