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Third Industrial Revolution Consulting Group Evolution of the global electric car stock, 2010-15 [Source: iea, Global EV Outlook 2016, page 4] Purchase incentives and market shares for BEVs and PHEVs, 2015 [Source: iea, Global EV Outlook 2016, page 16] Alongside with active mobility, the shift to electric is key in the transition towards clean mobility and moving transports to near zero marginal cost. Luxembourg should take its size and flexibility, as well as its strength in setting the regulatory framework rapidly as an advantage, and should promote the e-mobility technology. This includes electric passenger cars – both owned and shared, electric bikes, micro mobility, public transport as well as last-mile logistics. In order for the TIR vision to reach the goal of a 100% renewable energy fleet by 2050, it is recommended that all related new registrations in the country are electric from 2025 onwards. Overcoming the two main barriers to e-vehicles (EV) adoption – namely the strong purchase 84
Third Industrial Revolution Consulting Group price gap versus conventional vehicles and range anxiety – will require further actions in Luxembourg in the long term. 1.1 Technical When approaching the question of electric vehicles, it is key to establish a clear distinction between individual cars, public transport, and freight transport (last-mile, long and very long distances). Each of these aspects represents a different challenge. Deploying electric cars is the most challenging intervention, because of the number of vehicles and the infrastructure required. Trucks and public transport, in turn, pose a challenge because of the size and weight of the energy storage (batteries). The electric bikes (pedelecs) technology is the most mature and widely accepted by the public. 1.1.1 Battery vs. Hydrogen electric power supply. There are two mainstream technologies today to store on-board and retrieve the energy required for electric traction: batteries and hydrogen gas coupled with fuel cells (HFC). Both technologies present advantages and disadvantages. However, the widespread availability of battery electric vehicles and charging stations compared to the marginal existing offer of highly priced hydrogen powered vehicles, as well as the lack refueling infrastructure and high production costs of hydrogen, all lead to a clear advantage of the battery stored solution in the short to mid-term. 1.1.2 Batteries as a power supply for electric vehicles. Lithium Ion batteries are technically consolidated, relatively cheap, widely available, efficient, safe and reliable to use. The existing electricity distribution network can serve as a “fuel distribution network”, without requiring building a wholly new network and removing most fuel tanker trucks from the streets. Unfortunately, the energy density even of the best batteries is very low compared to that of fossil fuels: it takes on average 40-90 kg of Li-ion batteries to store the energy equivalent of one litre of diesel fuel. Even accounting for the higher efficiency of electric motors, in order to obtain a range of 500 km, a car would need to carry more than half a ton of batteries and a bus would need nearly three tons. Technological improvements in battery technologies can reduce costs and increase public acceptance of EVs. Price is predicted to reach slightly over 100 euros per kWh over the next 15 years, which is less than half of the cost today. New innovations for batteries in the form of larger capacity, less weight, and smaller size will contribute to the falling costs of battery technology. Although constant progress is being made in this area, the current state of the technology prevents the use of batteries in larger vehicles such as trucks 85
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