3FOOD

Third Industrial Revolution Consulting Group
Table 7. Energy Costs and Impacts from the TIR Innovation Scenario
Economic Impact Metric 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050
Annual
Average
2016-2050
Efficiency Gain Savings from RefCase 1% 5% 15% 25% 33% n/a
Policy, Program, Transaction Costs Million Euros 2015 8 16 33 24 19 25
Energy-Related Technology Investments Million Euros 2015 97 221 500 432 377 420
Net Energy Bill Savings Million Euros 2015 -14 52 197 350 485 250
Energy Bill Savings Employment Net Jobs 1,100 2,500 5,200 4,400 3,700 4,300
Productivity Employment Net Jobs 200 800 3,200 7,100 13,700 5,300
Other TIR Infrastructure Employment Net Jobs 1,800 4,700 12,000 16,500 25,100 13,800
Total TIR Innovation Employment Benefits Net Jobs 3,100 8,000 20,400 28,000 42,500 23,400
Net GDP Impacts Million Real Euros 100 300 1,000 1,700 2,900 1,300
Source: Output from the DEEPER Modeling Systems as described in text manuscript that follows.
Three things might be noticed immediately in Table 7. First, the very first row of the table
stresses the importance of supplemental gains in the overall energy efficiency of the
Luxembourg economy. In effect, the total energy demands in an already energy-efficient
reference case are cost-effectively reduced by yet another 33 percent in the period 2017 to
2050. Second, there is a coincidence between the rounded average annual energy bill savings of
419.7 million euros and the annual average investments of 421.4 million euros. Both figures are
rounded off to €420 million as they are reported in Figure 3, Table 6, and Table 7 above.
Finally, although not shown in this table or Table 6, the presumed investment and the more
productive TIR build-out of the Luxembourg economy will clearly increase the scale of gross
capital fixed formation. Because of the greater level of cost savings, this will stimulate both a
more vigorous level of GDP per job as well as a slight increase in the total number of jobs.
The end result of the TIR Innovation Scenario is an economy that, by 2050, expands
employment by about five percent more than otherwise anticipated. There is a net gain of
energy-driven employment—an annual average of 4,300 net jobs over the 33-year period
ending in 2050. In effect, these jobs are made possible by the extensive upgrade of
Luxembourg’s energy-related infrastructure. Such jobs are further complemented by an
additional 5,300 net jobs made possible annually by the non-energy productivity benefits that
will be stimulated by an energy-led productivity improvement. Finally, there is a working
estimate of about 13,800 average annual net jobs from other TIR Infrastructure investments
and transitions, whether in blockchain technologies, transportation/logistics, or greater
circularity and waste reduction within the production process. Total national employment,
then, is estimated to escalate to just under 24,000 net average jobs per year. If the resulting net
gain of 24,000 net jobs seems like an overly small benefit, it is because Luxembourg—despite
its open and dynamic economy—is a rather small nation. Another way to look at these job
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