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Third Industrial Revolution Consulting Group Trends that Shape the Reference Case Using a number of these national economic projections, and with preliminary inputs from STATEC, as well as key high-level reference case data, Tables 2 and 6 (shown previously) provide a useful starting point in the assessment through the year 2050. As highlighted in the results reported in Table 7 that follows, we can compare these reference case assumptions with expected results that might emerge from one or more TIR Innovation Scenarios. There are two key trends that have not been highlighted in the tables above but underscore the emerging positive impact of the TIR Innovation Scenario. The first is the growth in economywide productivity as measured by GDP value per job (in million real 2005 Euros). Compared to a historical 1.4 percent annual growth rate over the years 1985 to 2010 (not shown here), recent projections for per capita GDP suggest a growth that is less than half that historical pace. In the 10-year period 2010 to 2020, reflecting the economic volatility of the previous 10-year period, the rate of productivity of the Luxembourg economy is projected to fall to 0.58 percent per year. The good news is that the trend increases slightly to 1.28 percent annually over the 30-year period 2020 through 2050. It is this trend, among other metrics, the prompted the OECD to release its 2015 report on the Future of Productivity (see footnote 11 for a further discussion and citation). At the same time, there is a second trend that hints at a less resilient future economy – in this case because of a declining rate of investment. Recent projections indicate that the rate of Gross Fixed Capital Formation—in effect the growth of annual investments in Luxembourg’s total fixed assets—is also decreasing compared to historical performance. 397 Data from the OECD show that over the same 25-year period 1985 to 2010, it averaged 20.4 percent of GDP (not shown here). 397 Fixed assets include land improvements (fences, ditches, drains, and so on); plant, machinery, and equipment purchases; and the construction of roads, railways, and the like, including schools, offices, hospitals, private residential dwellings, and commercial and industrial buildings. Inventories are stocks of goods held by firms to meet temporary or unexpected fluctuations in production or sales, and "work in progress." 446
Third Industrial Revolution Consulting Group Figure 5. Luxembourg’s Growth in Per Capita GDP 398 Source: OECD Historical and Long-term Baseline Projections (May 2016). 398 Because Luxembourg has such an open economy, and with roughly 40 percent of jobs held by non-domestic borderers, the metric GDP per job may be the better metric for comparing larger economic productivity than per capita GDP. At the same time, OECD data are not usefully and immediately available for this long-term historical and future comparison. Yet, the larger trends continue to provide critical insights. 447
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