3FOOD

Third Industrial Revolution Consulting Group
REVIEWING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF
THE TIR INNOVATION SCENARIO
The foundation for the overall economic assessment that has been completed as part of the
Luxembourg Third Industrial Revolution master planning process is the proprietary modeling
system known as the Dynamic Energy Efficiency Policy Evaluation Routine (DEEPER). The model,
developed by John A. “Skip” Laitner, is a compact 15-sector dynamic input-output model of a
given regional or national economy. 393 The model is essentially a recipe that shows how
different sectors of the economy are expected to buy and sell to each other, and how they
might, in turn, be affected by changed investment and spending patterns. Setting up that recipe
is a first step in exploring the future job creation opportunities and other macroeconomic
impacts as the Luxembourg economy shifts from the Second Industrial Revolution to the higher
level of performance that is likely to be associated with the Third Industrial Revolution (TIR).
Although it has only recently been updated to reflect the economic dynamics specific to
Luxembourg, the DEEPER model has a 26-year history of development and application. The
model has been utilized, for example, to assess the net employment impacts of proposed
automobile fuel economy standards within the United States. 394 More often, it is typically
employed to evaluate the macroeconomic impacts of a variety of energy efficiency, renewable
energy, and climate policies at the regional, state, and national level. As a recent illustration, it
was used in 2013 to assess the potential outcomes and economic benefits of the Third
Industrial in Nord-Pas de Calais, an industrial region of four million people in northern
France. 395
The timeframe of the model for evaluating energy efficiency and renewable energy technology
policies and investments is 1990 through 2050. The period 1990 (or earlier as needed) through
2015 provides a useful historical perspective. The period 2016 through 2050 provides an
393 There is nothing particularly special about this number of sectors. The problem is to provide sufficient detail to
show key negative and positive impacts while maintaining a model of manageable size. Expanding or reducing the
number of sectors will require some minor programming changes and adjustments to handle the larger matrix.
394 Gearing Up: Smart Standards Create Good Jobs Building Cleaner Cars, by Chris Busch, John Laitner, Rob
McCulloch, and Ivana Stosic, Washington, DC: BlueGreen Alliance, 2012. Based on this analysis and other evidence,
American President Barack Obama signed into effect the proposed 54.5 mile-per-gallon fuel economy standards in
August 2012.
395 Nord-Pas de Calais Third Industrial Revolution Master Plan – 2013, by Jeremy Rifkin, Benoit Prunel, Solenne
Bastie, Francis Hinterman, John Laitner and Shawn Moorhead. Bethesda, MD: TIR Consulting Group LLC. 2013.
Note that since the release of this master plan, and the development of hundreds of projects based on that plan,
Nord-Pas de Calais recently merged with the region of Picardy to form a new region of some 6 million inhabitants
now referred to as Hauts-de-France.
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